Route profile
MCO→JFK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to New York, 944 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 6% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 14,838 flights. How this is calculated
MCO → JFK arrives on time 73.1% of the time; the return trip, JFK → MCO, arrives on time 72.1% of the time.
MCO → JFK spends 31.5 minutes on the ground on a 944-mile trip: 20.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 10.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at JFK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 100% of 4,023 comparable routes.
91.1% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 44.8% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
Why MCO → JFK flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → JFK cancelled 368 of 14,838 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 40. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 37.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 107 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 368 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
139 cancellations, 37.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
135 cancellations, 36.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
94 cancellations, 25.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
368 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → JFK; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
78 min late
against a median of 5 min early
MCO → JFK has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 5 min early, but the worst tenth are 83 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 14,838 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at JFK after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 41% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 19% | High risk |
| 90 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 8.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.48% of the time and diverts 0.16% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 14,447 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 78 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 14,838 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → JFK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.1% of the time, against 44.8% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 46.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 92.9% on time from 1,804 flights
- 7 AM: 90.2% on time from 1,768 flights
- 8 AM: 89.3% on time from 736 flights
- 9 AM: 81.1% on time from 774 flights
- 10 AM: 79.0% on time from 701 flights
- 11 AM: 75.9% on time from 1,824 flights
- 12 PM: 66.0% on time from 313 flights
- 1 PM: 68.7% on time from 960 flights
- 2 PM: 60.5% on time from 463 flights
- 3 PM: 68.7% on time from 1,247 flights
- 4 PM: 59.3% on time from 538 flights
- 5 PM: 71.8% on time from 468 flights
- 6 PM: 51.9% on time from 647 flights
- 7 PM: 54.1% on time from 1,821 flights
- 8 PM: 46.3% on time from 471 flights
- 9 PM: 45.6% on time from 265 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MCO → JFK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → JFK, at 36.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.1% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 44.8%.
How this route holds up in bad weather
July 2023 – July 2026
Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of MCO to JFK: 3.2 times the normal rate at MCO and 3.5 times at JFK. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MCO 4.0% against 1.3%, JFK 6.0% against 1.7%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.
Bad weather and normal hours at the airports
Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026| Departures from | MCO | JFK |
|---|---|---|
| Cancelled in bad weather | 4.0% | 6.0% |
| Cancelled in normal hours | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| Arrived on time, bad weather | 54.1% | 64.1% |
| Arrived on time, normal hours | 76.3% | 79.7% |
| Departures in bad weather | 33,297 | 46,497 |
Of the carriers on this route, Delta Air Lines (3.3% cancelled against 4.3% for the other carriers at MCO) cancelled the fewest departures from MCO in bad weather and JetBlue (4.6% cancelled against 3.8% for the other carriers at MCO) the most.
This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO
All departures from MCO| Airline | Bad-weather departures | Cancelled | Other carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 4,556 | 3.3%below the others | 4.3% |
| Frontier Airlines | 3,840 | 4.7%above the others | 3.9% |
| JetBlue | 3,744 | 4.6%above the others | 3.8% |
These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MCO and JFK, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MCO on every route.
Weather source and limits. In full: MCO (airlines), JFK, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JetBlue | 8,275 | 68.8% | 2.90% | -2 min | 15.2% |
| Delta Air Lines | 6,014 | 78.1% | 2.05% | -8 min | 9.2% |
| Frontier Airlines | 549 | 82.7% | 0.91% | -8 min | 5.7% |
JetBlue flew 55.8% of the 14,838 flights listed. JetBlue cancelled 2.90% of its flights here against 0.91% for Frontier Airlines.
Frontier Airlines arrived on time 13.9 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Other ways to fly Orlando to New York
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| B62584 JetBlue | 9:30 AM | 956 | 82.9% |
| B61184 JetBlue | 6:00 AM | 947 | 90.4% |
| B61584 JetBlue | 7:15 AM | 750 | 82.8% |
| DL2693 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 722 | 92.0% |
| B6884 JetBlue | 6:00 AM | 710 | 55.3% |
| DL2702 Delta Air Lines | 7:33 AM | 687 | 88.6% |
| B61084 JetBlue | 7:00 AM | 653 | 68.2% |
| B61284 JetBlue | 6:00 PM | 629 | 51.4% |
DL2693 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 92.0% of the time, 40.6 points more often than B61284 (6:00 PM) at 51.4%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.1%
- Feb: 75.6%
- Mar: 73.4%
- Apr: 77.3%
- May: 72.7%
- Jun: 70.3%
- Jul: 58.5%
- Aug: 64.4%
- Sep: 77.0%
- Oct: 82.3%
- Nov: 84.3%
- Dec: 70.7%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 25.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 52.1% from 434 flights
- August 2023: 65.2% from 431 flights
- September 2023: 61.4% from 389 flights
- October 2023: 80.3% from 377 flights
- November 2023: 83.5% from 377 flights
- December 2023: 74.9% from 413 flights
- January 2024: 77.4% from 367 flights
- February 2024: 77.7% from 337 flights
- March 2024: 70.1% from 358 flights
- April 2024: 80.8% from 402 flights
- May 2024: 67.5% from 407 flights
- June 2024: 70.9% from 388 flights
- July 2024: 66.0% from 401 flights
- August 2024: 61.1% from 419 flights
- September 2024: 85.1% from 308 flights
- October 2024: 91.1% from 324 flights
- November 2024: 87.0% from 407 flights
- December 2024: 70.9% from 453 flights
- January 2025: 80.4% from 385 flights
- February 2025: 77.2% from 385 flights
- March 2025: 74.9% from 452 flights
- April 2025: 74.3% from 489 flights
- May 2025: 67.0% from 429 flights
- June 2025: 65.0% from 417 flights
- July 2025: 55.2% from 433 flights
- August 2025: 66.6% from 434 flights
- September 2025: 86.9% from 346 flights
- October 2025: 77.2% from 373 flights
- November 2025: 82.3% from 420 flights
- December 2025: 66.4% from 446 flights
- January 2026: 73.3% from 375 flights
- February 2026: 72.0% from 375 flights
- March 2026: 74.5% from 443 flights
- April 2026: 77.6% from 482 flights
- May 2026: 84.1% from 399 flights
- June 2026: 75.5% from 373 flights
- July 2026: 61.6% from 390 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.7% against 73.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 14,838 MCO → JFK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed