JFK → MCO Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · JFKNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:51 UTC

New York airport profile →

Destination · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

44/ 100Weak

Better than 8% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 14,837 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

72.1%

10,395 of 14,426

Cancellation rate

2.39%

354 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-5 min

Average 12.4 min

Severe delays

11.8%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

77 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

14,837

3 carriers

JFK → MCO arrives on time 72.1% of the time; the return trip, MCO → JFK, arrives on time 73.1% of the time.

JFK → MCO spends 37.8 minutes on the ground on a 944-mile trip: 26.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 11.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 95% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 5 min early, but the worst tenth run 76 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why JFK → MCO flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

JFK → MCO cancelled 354 of 14,837 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 42. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 39.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 105 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather39.8%

Air traffic35.6%

Airline24.6%

Security0.0%

Of 354 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 105

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

141 cancellations, 39.8% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 118

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

126 cancellations, 35.6% of the total.

The airline1 in 171

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

87 cancellations, 24.6% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

354 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → MCO; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

71 min late

against a median of 5 min early

Arrived an hour or more late11.8%

Typical delay when late77 min

Cancelled2.39%

Landed somewhere else0.38%

JFK → MCO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 5 min early, but the worst tenth are 76 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 14,837 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MCO after arriving from JFK.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, JFK → MCO arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	42%	Likely to miss
45 min	27%	High risk
60 min	20%	High risk
90 min	12%	Some risk
120 min	7.4%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.39% of the time and diverts 0.38% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 14,426 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 71 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 14,837 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

JFK → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 82.9% of the time, against 53.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 29.9 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (JFK).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.8 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 4.4 points.

On-time arrival rate for JFK to MCO by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 9 PM (505 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for JFK to MCO. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	77.9% on time149 flights	81.2% on time151 flights	84.4% on time148 flights	82.9% on time147 flights	83.9% on time145 flights	78.9% on time135 flights	86.6% on time146 flights
7 AM–8 AM	85.7% on time220 flights	86.7% on time214 flights	90.4% on time222 flights	89.7% on time216 flights	83.9% on time217 flights	82.5% on time235 flights	81.7% on time219 flights
8 AM–9 AM	99 flights, too few to score	86 flights, too few to score	95 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	97 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score
9 AM–10 AM	72.8% on time211 flights	82.1% on time216 flights	88.6% on time213 flights	76.1% on time208 flights	80.2% on time210 flights	75.3% on time215 flights	74.0% on time213 flights
10 AM–11 AM	69 flights, too few to score	63 flights, too few to score	68 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	79.5% on time159 flights	85.1% on time166 flights	85.2% on time165 flights	83.4% on time166 flights	80.0% on time168 flights	79.4% on time158 flights	78.8% on time162 flights
12 PM–1 PM	68.3% on time131 flights	84.5% on time132 flights	81.6% on time128 flights	74.0% on time130 flights	76.4% on time126 flights	70.2% on time123 flights	65.0% on time128 flights
1 PM–2 PM	72.0% on time136 flights	84.6% on time133 flights	78.1% on time129 flights	84.3% on time128 flights	79.2% on time131 flights	76.7% on time130 flights	60.7% on time140 flights
2 PM–3 PM	85 flights, too few to score	86 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	85 flights, too few to score	86 flights, too few to score	98 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	62.1% on time231 flights	74.1% on time227 flights	74.8% on time213 flights	72.5% on time228 flights	67.1% on time231 flights	60.7% on time219 flights	62.5% on time231 flights
4 PM–5 PM	68 flights, too few to score	56 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	67 flights, too few to score	53 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	52.5% on time120 flights	69.0% on time121 flights	65.7% on time138 flights	58.5% on time124 flights	109 flights, too few to score	62.5% on time148 flights	44.1% on time121 flights
6 PM–7 PM	86 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	73 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	77 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	63.2% on time202 flights	74.6% on time145 flights	65.3% on time154 flights	68.3% on time189 flights	71.1% on time201 flights	65.5% on time154 flights	55.5% on time195 flights
8 PM–9 PM	59.7% on time127 flights	111 flights, too few to score	105 flights, too few to score	58.7% on time124 flights	61.5% on time121 flights	108 flights, too few to score	47.8% on time144 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM82.9%

9 AM–12 PM78.8%

12–3 PM71.8%

3–6 PM64.1%

6–9 PM61.4%

9 PM–5 AM53.0%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why JFK → MCO runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

The airline39.6%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Late-arriving aircraft31.8%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control26.3%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather2.0%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.4%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of JFK to MCO: 3.5 times the normal rate at JFK and 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: JFK 6.0% against 1.7%, MCO 4.0% against 1.3%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from JFK and MCO in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	JFK	MCO
Cancelled in bad weather	6.0%	4.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.7%	1.3%
Arrived on time, bad weather	64.1%	54.1%
Arrived on time, normal hours	79.7%	76.3%
Departures in bad weather	46,497	33,297

Delta Air Lines (4.0% cancelled against 6.9% for the other carriers at JFK) and Frontier Airlines (4.6% cancelled against 6.5% for the other carriers at JFK) cancelled fewer departures from JFK in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at JFK

All departures from JFK

Cancellation rates in bad weather at JFK for the airlines that fly JFK to MCO, against the other carriers at JFK in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Delta Air Lines	12,657	4.0%below the others	6.9%
Frontier Airlines	672	4.6%below the others	6.5%
JetBlue	14,948	6.2%about level	6.2%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from JFK and MCO, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from JFK on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: JFK (airlines), MCO, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
JetBlue	8,277	67.5%	2.69%	-2 min	14.4%
Delta Air Lines	6,012	78.2%	2.06%	-9 min	8.4%
Frontier Airlines	548	73.9%	1.28%	-2 min	9.6%

JetBlue flew 55.8% of the 14,837 flights listed. JetBlue cancelled 2.69% of its flights here against 1.28% for Frontier Airlines.

Delta Air Lines arrived on time 10.7 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.

Other ways to fly New York to Orlando

Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.

Other ways to fly New York to Orlando
Route	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Score
EWR→MCO Newark to Orlando	20,506	76.4%	2.70%	-9 min	51
LGA→MCO New York to Orlando	15,987	73.0%	2.85%	-7 min	43
JFK→MCO this route New York to Orlando	14,837	72.1%	2.39%	-5 min	44

EWR → MCO is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 76.4% on time, against 73.0% for LGA → MCO.

Flying to MCO from the New York area? Compare JFK, LGA, EWR for MCO, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
B683 JetBlue	12:00 PM	1,006	69.9%
B6383 JetBlue	2:50 PM	998	61.7%
B6283 JetBlue	6:30 PM	873	56.4%
B6183 JetBlue	8:00 AM	849	77.1%
DL2019 Delta Air Lines	9:00 AM	802	79.0%
B61083 JetBlue	6:30 AM	793	73.5%
DL1740 Delta Air Lines	7:59 PM	733	64.5%
B6883 JetBlue	4:35 PM	727	63.5%
DL1685 Delta Air Lines	3:40 PM	710	71.7%
DL2049 Delta Air Lines	7:05 AM	682	87.1%

DL2049 (7:05 AM) arrived on time 87.1% of the time, 30.7 points more often than B6283 (6:30 PM) at 56.4%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon68.5%

Tue78.8%

Wed77.3%

Thu73.2%

Fri72.2%

Sat69.5%

Sun65.3%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 13.5 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 24.6 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.9% against 72.1% in the 12 months before — improving by 1.8 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 14,837 JFK → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

JFK airport MCO airport Return direction MCO → JFK

JFK→MCO

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why JFK → MCO flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why JFK → MCO runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at JFK

Airlines on this route

Other ways to fly New York to Orlando

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology