FlyerIntel Research
Airports That Change Places When the Weather Turns
The airports with the best on-time record in clear weather are not the ones with the best record when it turns.
Published October 12, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – July 2026
Summary
MSP ranked 4th of 52 airports on time in normal weather and 33rd in bad weather. AUS went from 45th to 8th. Only 2 of the 10 best airports in normal weather are still among the 10 best in bad weather.
Key findings
- 52 covered airports ranked by on-time arrival rate twice: 79.1% of flights arrived on time in normal weather and 65.4% in bad weather.
- MSP fell from 4th to 33rd (83.5% on time to 65.6%). AUS rose from 45th to 8th.
- 2 of the 10 best airports in normal weather are still among the 10 best in bad weather.
- The correlation between the normal-weather rate and the bad-weather rate across airports is 0.66.
- 12 airports lost 10 places or more when the weather turned and 11 gained that many.
Two rankings of the same airports
An airport that runs on time in clear weather is not necessarily the one that holds up when the weather turns. This report ranks 52 covered airports twice by the share of flights that arrived on time, once for departures in normal weather and once for departures in bad weather, and shows how far each one moved. Across the airports 79.1% of flights arrived on time in normal weather and 65.4% in bad weather, a gap of 13.8 points. The typical airport moved 8 places between the two lists. The correlation between the two rates is 0.66, so a good rate in one is only a partial guide to the other.
Airports that fell furthest when the weather turned
| Airport | City | On time, normal weather | Rank, normal weather | On time, bad weather | Rank, bad weather | Places moved | Cancelled in bad weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSP | Minneapolis | 83.5% | 4th | 65.6% | 33rd | -29 | 2.4% |
| PHX | Phoenix | 80.6% | 23rd | 53.7% | 50th | -27 | 2.5% |
| LGA | New York | 80.9% | 21st | 63.6% | 39th | -18 | 9.0% |
| SLC | Salt Lake City | 84.8% | 2nd | 71.0% | 18th | -16 | 0.6% |
| IAD | Washington | 82.7% | 10th | 69.1% | 25th | -15 | 3.3% |
| DEN | Denver | 78.8% | 37th | 51.5% | 51st | -14 | 2.8% |
| DTW | Detroit | 81.6% | 15th | 66.5% | 29th | -14 | 2.5% |
| PIT | Pittsburgh | 83.7% | 3rd | 72.3% | 17th | -14 | 3.2% |
| ANC | Anchorage | 85.1% | 1st | 72.9% | 14th | -13 | 1.9% |
| CLE | Cleveland | 82.6% | 11th | 69.9% | 22nd | -11 | 3.8% |
Covered airports with at least 5,000 completed flights in each kind of weather. The airport with the highest on-time rate among them is ranked first. Places moved is the normal-weather rank minus the bad-weather rank, so a negative figure is a fall. Bad weather is as the weather cost report defines it: IFR or LIFR flying conditions, or a thunderstorm, snow or ice, fog, heavy rain or high wind at the airport in the scheduled hour.
Airports that rose furthest when the weather turned
| Airport | City | On time, normal weather | Rank, normal weather | On time, bad weather | Rank, bad weather | Places moved | Cancelled in bad weather |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUS | Austin | 77.5% | 45th | 74.9% | 8th | +37 | 1.6% |
| SEA | Seattle | 79.3% | 35th | 75.4% | 7th | +28 | 1.5% |
| RDU | Raleigh–Durham | 79.9% | 27th | 74.9% | 9th | +18 | 4.1% |
| SNA | Santa Ana | 81.3% | 19th | 83.6% | 2nd | +17 | 1.9% |
| SAT | San Antonio | 81.0% | 20th | 82.0% | 4th | +16 | 1.7% |
| SFO | San Francisco | 79.8% | 29th | 73.0% | 13th | +16 | 1.5% |
| SAN | San Diego | 78.4% | 40th | 66.7% | 27th | +13 | 3.5% |
| OAK | Oakland | 81.4% | 16th | 82.0% | 5th | +11 | 1.0% |
| LAX | Los Angeles | 81.4% | 17th | 78.9% | 6th | +11 | 1.0% |
| MSY | New Orleans | 79.5% | 34th | 69.4% | 24th | +10 | 3.2% |
Same measure, the airports at the other end of the list.
Who keeps their place
MSP ranked 4th in normal weather, at 83.5% on time, and 33rd in bad weather, at 65.6%. AUS went the other way, from 45th to 8th. 12 airports lost 10 places or more and 11 gained that many. Of the 10 airports with the best rate in normal weather, 2 are still among the 10 best in bad weather. 1 airport kept exactly the same rank. Of the 10 airports with the most bad-weather flights (ATL, ORD, DEN, DFW, LAX, BOS, DTW, CLT, LGA, and EWR), 7 ranked lower in bad weather than in normal weather.
What this does not show
Bad weather is not the same weather everywhere. Several kinds of weather are counted together, in different proportions at different airports, so an airport that rises is partly one whose bad weather is milder. The airline mix also differs by airport, and the table has no airline in it. The ranks are of rates and not of statistical certainty, and two airports a point apart are not reliably in that order. An airport that cancels many flights in bad weather has fewer completed flights to score, and its on-time rate describes the flights that were left, which can flatter it; the last column shows how many were cancelled.
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,708,321 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through July 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Each covered departure is matched to the hourly weather at its origin airport in its scheduled departure hour, as in the report What Weather Costs Each Airport. Normal weather is clear flying weather with none of the listed phenomena; bad weather is IFR or LIFR conditions or any of them. Airports are ranked by the share of completed flights that arrived on time, and an airport is listed only with at least 5,000 completed flights in each kind of weather.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight. Weather is measured at the origin airport only. A flight into a stormy airport from a clear one is counted in the weather of the airport it left.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis