Holiday flying, day by day

July 4 did best against ordinary days of the same weekdays (+5.2 points, better than usual in all four years) and Christmas to New Year’s did worst (−3.2 points, worse than usual in two of the three years).

Two days finished last in every year of their holidays: the Sunday after Thanksgiving and Memorial Day.

Two days finished first in every year of their holidays: Thanksgiving Day and the Saturday before Memorial Day.

The year mattered about as much as the holiday. Four of the five holidays had a gap of 5 points or more between their best and worst year; Thanksgiving ran 9.0 points below usual in 2025 and 1.9 points above usual in 2023.

Compared with ordinary days, Thanksgiving flights were better in one, about the same in one, and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 9.0 points below usual in 2025 to 1.9 points above usual in 2023.

The Sunday after Thanksgiving was the worst day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 67.1% on time, 11.6 points below an ordinary Sunday.

Thanksgiving Day was the best day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 93.2% on time, 12.7 points above an ordinary Thursday.

Thanksgiving Day itself carried 43% fewer departures than an ordinary Thursday and ran 93.2% on time.

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 87.8%, still 1.2 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 70.5%, 5.3 points below usual for that time of day.

The holiday cost flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (6.7 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 12–3 PM the least (0.3 points below).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.2%, still 4.0 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 66.0%, 9.6 points below usual for that time of day.

The holiday cost flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (10.0 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (4.0 points below).

0.94% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Thanksgiving windows, against 0.86% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years and higher in one.

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Saturday, Nov 25, 2023 (0.11% of that day’s departures, 35% of the window’s cancellations), Sunday, Dec 1, 2024 (0.20% of that day’s departures, 56% of the window’s cancellations), and Saturday, Nov 29, 2025 (7.83% of that day’s departures, 65% of the window’s cancellations).

Compared with ordinary days, Christmas to New Year’s flights were better in one and worse in two of the three years. The gap ran from 8.5 points below usual in 2025 to 2.2 points above usual in 2023.

December 27 (Wed, Fri, Sat) was the worst day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 68.0% on time, 11.5 points below what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

Christmas Day was the best day of the window in two of the three years. Over the years it ran 88.5% on time, 7.9 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

Christmas Day itself carried 14% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 88.5% on time.

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.3%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 68.7%, 4.7 points below usual for that time of day.

The holiday cost flights leaving 9 PM–5 AM the most (6.7 points below usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (0.8 points below).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 85.2%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 67.6%, 4.5 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 5–9 AM did best (0.0 points) and those leaving 9 PM–5 AM did worst (−5.4 points).

1.14% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Christmas to New Year’s windows, against 1.77% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years and higher in one.

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Sunday, Dec 24, 2023 (2.26% of that day’s departures, 35% of the window’s cancellations), Thursday, Dec 26, 2024 (2.92% of that day’s departures, 34% of the window’s cancellations), and Friday, Dec 26, 2025 (6.43% of that day’s departures, 31% of the window’s cancellations).

July 4 flights ran better than ordinary days in all four years. The gap ran from 2.3 points above usual in 2025 to 11.7 points above usual in 2024.

July 1 (Sat, Mon, Tue, Wed) was the worst day of the window in three of the four years. Over the years it ran 72.8% on time, still 1.0 point above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 was the best day of the window in two of the four years. Over the years it ran 83.2% on time, 12.3 points above what ordinary days of the same weekdays had.

July 4 itself carried 19% fewer departures than an ordinary day of the same weekday and ran 83.2% on time.

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 89.4%, 2.3 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 61.4%, still 5.8 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (6.7 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (2.3 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 88.2%, about level with usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 57.6%, still 3.4 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (3.8 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (0.6 points above).

1.59% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the July 4 windows, against 2.26% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the four years.

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Sunday, Jul 2, 2023 (2.24% of that day’s departures, 32% of the window’s cancellations), Monday, Jul 1, 2024 (1.58% of that day’s departures, 61% of the window’s cancellations), Tuesday, Jul 1, 2025 (6.38% of that day’s departures, 65% of the window’s cancellations), and Sunday, Jul 5, 2026 (4.34% of that day’s departures, 39% of the window’s cancellations).

Compared with ordinary days, Memorial Day flights were better in one, about the same in one, and worse in one of the three years. The gap ran from 2.3 points below usual in 2024 to 1.4 points above usual in 2025.

Memorial Day was the worst day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 71.3% on time, 3.1 points below an ordinary Monday.

The Saturday before Memorial Day was the best day of the window in all three years. Over the years it ran 77.9% on time, about level with an ordinary Saturday.

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 86.8%, still 1.5 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 61.9%, about level with usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 12–3 PM did best (+1.1 points) and those leaving 5–9 AM did worst (−1.5 points).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 87.0%, still 1.1 points below usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 58.8%, 1.3 points below usual for that time of day.

Against usual for their time of day, flights leaving 12–3 PM did best (+1.9 points) and those leaving 6–9 PM did worst (−1.3 points).

1.02% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Memorial Day windows, against 1.04% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in one of the three years.

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Monday, May 27, 2024 (2.34% of that day’s departures, 72% of the window’s cancellations), Monday, May 26, 2025 (1.63% of that day’s departures, 78% of the window’s cancellations), and Sunday, May 24, 2026 (1.75% of that day’s departures, 52% of the window’s cancellations).

Labor Day flights ran better than ordinary days in all three years. The gap ran from 2.4 points above usual in 2024 to 7.6 points above usual in 2023.

No day was the worst more than once: Monday, Sep 2 in 2024 and Saturday, Aug 30 in 2025.

No day was the best more than once: Saturday, Aug 31 in 2024 and Sunday, Aug 31 in 2025.

Across the whole window, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 92.0%, 2.3 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 76.4%, still 6.0 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 6–9 PM the most (6.0 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (2.3 points above).

On each year’s two busiest days, flights leaving 5–9 AM had the highest on-time rate: 92.7%, 3.0 points above usual for that time of day. Those leaving 6–9 PM had the lowest: 75.0%, still 6.4 points above usual for that time of day.

The holiday helped flights leaving 3–6 PM the most (6.6 points above usual for that time of day) and those leaving 5–9 AM the least (3.0 points above).

0.69% of scheduled departures were cancelled across the Labor Day windows, against 1.21% on ordinary days of the same weekdays. It was lower in two of the three years.

The worst day for cancellations in each year was Saturday, Sep 2, 2023 (0.46% of that day’s departures, 47% of the window’s cancellations), Sunday, Sep 1, 2024 (0.79% of that day’s departures, 42% of the window’s cancellations), and Saturday, Aug 30, 2025 (2.25% of that day’s departures, 58% of the window’s cancellations).

What is counted. Every scheduled departure from the 64 US airports FlyerIntel covers, July 2023 – July 2026, from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics on-time data. A flight is on time if it arrives less than 15 minutes after its scheduled arrival, and cancelled and diverted flights are left out of the on-time rate and counted in the cancellation rate. The figures are for flights leaving the airport, judged on arrival at the other end. Departure times are the scheduled local time at the origin.

The windows. Each holiday is anchored to its date, computed for every year rather than looked up: Thanksgiving is the fourth Thursday of November, Memorial Day the last Monday of May, Labor Day the first Monday of September, and July 4 and Christmas Day are those dates whatever weekday they fall on. The window is the stretch people actually travel, and the days beside it are shown so you can see whether leaving a day earlier or later would have helped. A window is used only when all of it lies inside the flights loaded, so a holiday is never measured on a partial calendar.

“Usual”. A holiday is not compared with the average day of the year, which would flatter July 4 (July is the worst month for delays) and penalize Thanksgiving (November is one of the best). Each day is compared with ordinary days of the same weekday at the same airport in the four weeks either side of that holiday, in every year the holiday is in the data. An ordinary day is any day outside all five windows. A pooled figure compares with the flight-weighted average of the weekdays it actually fell on, which is what makes July 4 and Christmas, whose weekday changes each year, comparable.

Better, worse, about the same. A gap is called better or worse only when it is at least 1 point (a quarter of a point for cancellations, 0.25 points) and larger than chance would produce with that many flights, using the same two-proportion test as the compare tool. Flights on a bad day are not independent of each other, so “larger than chance” is a statement about the sample, not a forecast. The year-by-year tables are the better guide to whether something repeats.

Small numbers. A day at an airport prints a rate only with 120 or more scheduled departures behind it, the site’s standard floor, and so does the ordinary-day figure it is compared with; a dash in a table means one of them fell short, and nothing is estimated in its place. Smaller airports fall under it on single days and print a figure only where several days or several years together clear it.

History, not a forecast. This is what happened in the windows the data holds, three or four times for each holiday. It says which days ran badly before and whether the same day did so year after year. It cannot say what this year will bring, and a single storm can decide a holiday for a whole year.

Related: The Holiday Travel Penalty Is Smaller Than It Looks compares the five windows with the whole year, and Thanksgiving 2026 Flight Delays looks at the Thanksgiving corridor and its airlines. The method behind every figure on the site is on the methodology page.