MCO → EWR Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Destination · EWRNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Newark airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

43/ 100Weak

Better than 7% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 20,510 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

74.1%

14,738 of 19,892

Cancellation rate

2.61%

535 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-7 min

Average 14.0 min

Severe delays

12.3%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

88 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

20,510

3 carriers

MCO → EWR arrives on time 74.1% of the time; the return trip, EWR → MCO, arrives on time 76.4% of the time, a 2.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

MCO → EWR spends 30.4 minutes on the ground on a 937-mile trip: 21.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 9.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at EWR.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 97% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 7 min early, but the worst tenth run 83 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why MCO → EWR flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MCO → EWR cancelled 535 of 20,510 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 38. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 48.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 80 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather48.0%

Air traffic26.9%

Airline25.0%

Security0.0%

Of 535 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 80

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

257 cancellations, 48.0% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 142

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

144 cancellations, 26.9% of the total.

The airline1 in 153

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

134 cancellations, 25.0% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

535 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → EWR; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

76 min late

against a median of 7 min early

Arrived an hour or more late12.3%

Typical delay when late88 min

Cancelled2.61%

Landed somewhere else0.40%

MCO → EWR has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 7 min early, but the worst tenth are 83 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 20,510 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at EWR after arriving from MCO.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MCO → EWR arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	38%	Likely to miss
45 min	25%	High risk
60 min	19%	High risk
90 min	12%	Some risk
120 min	8.4%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.61% of the time and diverts 0.40% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 19,892 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 76 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 20,510 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MCO → EWR flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.8% of the time, against 58.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 30.4 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MCO).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 12.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.0 points.

On-time arrival rate for MCO to EWR by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 9 PM (1,020 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MCO to EWR. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	94.2% on time247 flights	90.8% on time210 flights	93.7% on time208 flights	92.4% on time256 flights	86.3% on time252 flights	92.1% on time254 flights	87.1% on time242 flights
7 AM–8 AM	88.1% on time180 flights	94.2% on time174 flights	92.5% on time175 flights	93.9% on time180 flights	88.2% on time180 flights	88.0% on time185 flights	87.4% on time179 flights
8 AM–9 AM	81.2% on time197 flights	87.1% on time194 flights	90.5% on time196 flights	86.1% on time199 flights	82.3% on time203 flights	80.1% on time169 flights	82.4% on time197 flights
9 AM–10 AM	87.3% on time249 flights	89.8% on time238 flights	93.8% on time243 flights	86.1% on time250 flights	90.7% on time241 flights	85.0% on time229 flights	83.7% on time261 flights
10 AM–11 AM	81.6% on time240 flights	85.2% on time224 flights	89.7% on time225 flights	80.7% on time228 flights	85.6% on time233 flights	79.7% on time242 flights	84.2% on time233 flights
11 AM–12 PM	81.3% on time229 flights	82.9% on time238 flights	85.1% on time238 flights	73.8% on time254 flights	76.7% on time232 flights	74.2% on time247 flights	75.1% on time252 flights
12 PM–1 PM	71.3% on time172 flights	84.4% on time185 flights	76.2% on time185 flights	70.8% on time172 flights	71.6% on time180 flights	67.8% on time185 flights	69.4% on time176 flights
1 PM–2 PM	68.4% on time199 flights	73.3% on time194 flights	74.0% on time185 flights	67.6% on time195 flights	61.2% on time193 flights	66.1% on time179 flights	70.8% on time199 flights
2 PM–3 PM	67.4% on time182 flights	77.6% on time159 flights	74.5% on time170 flights	63.6% on time191 flights	61.7% on time181 flights	67.9% on time194 flights	66.7% on time180 flights
3 PM–4 PM	61.0% on time175 flights	74.8% on time147 flights	66.9% on time162 flights	60.7% on time146 flights	59.2% on time167 flights	64.5% on time158 flights	61.0% on time149 flights
4 PM–5 PM	107 flights, too few to score	73.8% on time128 flights	67.5% on time129 flights	105 flights, too few to score	113 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	115 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	57.5% on time241 flights	69.9% on time244 flights	57.3% on time230 flights	58.7% on time223 flights	55.6% on time223 flights	59.2% on time191 flights	49.5% on time207 flights
6 PM–7 PM	88 flights, too few to score	61.3% on time125 flights	64.7% on time144 flights	76 flights, too few to score	98 flights, too few to score	97 flights, too few to score	105 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	60.7% on time141 flights	67.6% on time156 flights	66.4% on time150 flights	66.1% on time125 flights	57.4% on time145 flights	63.6% on time135 flights	53.1% on time138 flights
8 PM–9 PM	56.1% on time167 flights	64.1% on time160 flights	60.5% on time155 flights	56.6% on time174 flights	51.2% on time174 flights	54.8% on time130 flights	50.3% on time176 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM88.8%

9 AM–12 PM83.4%

12–3 PM70.0%

3–6 PM61.1%

6–9 PM58.4%

9 PM–5 AM63.3%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why MCO → EWR runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Air traffic control43.1%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Late-arriving aircraft29.3%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline21.7%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Weather5.8%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → EWR. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of MCO to EWR: 3.2 times the normal rate at MCO and 3.3 times at EWR. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MCO 4.0% against 1.3%, EWR 6.9% against 2.1%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MCO and EWR in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MCO	EWR
Cancelled in bad weather	4.0%	6.9%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.3%	2.1%
Arrived on time, bad weather	54.1%	65.8%
Arrived on time, normal hours	76.3%	80.0%
Departures in bad weather	33,297	51,613

Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (3.3% cancelled against 4.2% for the other carriers at MCO) cancelled the fewest departures from MCO in bad weather and Spirit Airlines (5.7% cancelled against 3.9% for the other carriers at MCO) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

All departures from MCO

Cancellation rates in bad weather at MCO for the airlines that fly MCO to EWR, against the other carriers at MCO in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	2,988	3.3%below the others	4.2%
JetBlue	3,744	4.6%above the others	3.8%
Spirit Airlines	4,014	5.7%above the others	3.9%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MCO and EWR, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MCO on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: MCO (airlines), EWR, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
United Airlines	11,975	77.6%	2.42%	-9 min	10.7%
JetBlue	4,340	64.6%	2.72%	0 min	17.3%
Spirit Airlines	4,040	73.2%	3.09%	-6 min	11.9%

United Airlines flew 58.8% of the 20,355 flights listed.

United Airlines arrived on time 13.0 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.

Other ways to fly Orlando to New York

Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.

Other ways to fly Orlando to New York
Route	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Score
MCO→EWR this route Orlando to Newark	20,510	74.1%	2.61%	-7 min	43
MCO→LGA Orlando to New York	15,977	72.7%	2.69%	-5 min	43
MCO→JFK Orlando to New York	14,838	73.1%	2.48%	-5 min	42

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
B62028 JetBlue	10:00 AM	926	81.4%
B6128 JetBlue	1:30 PM	915	62.2%
B6828 JetBlue	12:00 PM	783	58.3%

B62028 (10:00 AM) arrived on time 81.4% of the time, 23.1 points more often than B6828 (12:00 PM) at 58.3%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon73.4%

Tue79.4%

Wed77.8%

Thu73.3%

Fri71.6%

Sat72.8%

Sun70.4%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.0 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and January the strongest, a spread of 21.3 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.4% against 71.4% in the 12 months before — improving by 3.0 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 20,510 MCO → EWR flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MCO airport EWR airport Return direction EWR → MCO

MCO→EWR

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why MCO → EWR flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MCO → EWR runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

Airlines on this route

Other ways to fly Orlando to New York

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology