Route profile
PHL→RDU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Philadelphia to Raleigh–Durham, 337 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 12% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,595 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
PHL → RDU arrives on time 74.5% of the time; the return trip, RDU → PHL, arrives on time 73.5% of the time.
PHL → RDU spends 29.4 minutes on the ground on a 337-mile trip: 21.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHL and 8.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at RDU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 93% of 5,368 comparable routes.
74.7% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 75.1% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHL to RDU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHL to RDU struggles most at 8 PM: 60.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 10.3 points behind the 71.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6.5 points.
Saturday is the day PHL to RDU slips furthest against routes of similar length, 74.0% on time where they average 82.6%, 8.6 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
In August, PHL to RDU runs 14.9 points below routes of similar length, 65.0% on time to 79.9%. Against all other routes the gap is 11.5 points.
American Airlines’ flights on PHL to RDU arrive on time 72.8% of the time, 4.1 points below the 76.9% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 2.3 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on PHL to RDU than on its routes of similar length: 76.3% on time here, 72.9% there, 3.4 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
PHL to RDU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 60.9% | routes of similar length | 71.2% | −10.3 pts | 376 here, 61,171 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 74.0% | routes of similar length | 82.6% | −8.6 pts | 900 here, 129,182 there |
| Month: August | 65.0% | routes of similar length | 79.9% | −14.9 pts | 614 here, 91,857 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 72.8% | routes of similar length | 76.9% | −4.1 pts | 4,010 here, 138,802 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 76.3% | routes of similar length | 72.9% | +3.4 pts | 2,043 here, 25,148 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 337 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why PHL → RDU flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
PHL → RDU cancelled 182 of 7,595 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 42. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 73.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 57 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 182 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
133 cancellations, 73.1% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
41 cancellations, 22.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
8 cancellations, 4.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
182 coded cancellations were recorded on PHL → RDU; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
65 min late
against a median of 6 min early
PHL → RDU has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 71 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 7,595 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RDU after arriving from PHL.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 25% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.0% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.40% of the time and diverts 0.21% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,397 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 65 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,595 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHL → RDU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 83.6% of the time, against 63.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 20.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 84.4% on time from 289 flights
- 7 AM: 82.7% on time from 281 flights
- 8 AM: 82.6% on time from 563 flights
- 9 AM: 80.2% on time from 606 flights
- 10 AM: 85.8% on time from 641 flights
- 11 AM: 77.7% on time from 292 flights
- 12 PM: 82.6% on time from 259 flights
- 1 PM: 73.2% on time from 643 flights
- 2 PM: 76.9% on time from 543 flights
- 3 PM: 69.2% on time from 767 flights
- 4 PM: 68.6% on time from 497 flights
- 5 PM: 67.9% on time from 205 flights
- 6 PM: 66.4% on time from 486 flights
- 7 PM: 62.8% on time from 607 flights
- 8 PM: 60.9% on time from 391 flights
- 9 PM: 73.1% on time from 318 flights
- 10 PM: 70.6% on time from 121 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why PHL → RDU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHL → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHL → RDU, at 54.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 83.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 63.5%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 4,112 | 72.8% | 2.24% | -5 min | 11.8% |
| Frontier Airlines | 2,093 | 76.3% | 2.25% | -9 min | 9.8% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,035 | 73.8% | 3.48% | -5 min | 11.1% |
| Republic Airways | 355 | 85.9% | 1.97% | -12 min | 5.7% |
American Airlines flew 54.1% of the 7,595 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 3.48% of its flights here against 1.97% for Republic Airways.
Republic Airways arrived on time 13.1 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
F92059 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 81.3% of the time, 16.5 points more often than AA706 (9:15 PM) at 64.8%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 7.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 73.9%
- Feb: 77.9%
- Mar: 78.1%
- Apr: 80.5%
- May: 78.2%
- Jun: 70.3%
- Jul: 61.6%
- Aug: 65.0%
- Sep: 78.2%
- Oct: 79.1%
- Nov: 81.7%
- Dec: 74.4%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 20.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 54.4% from 177 flights
- August 2023: 65.3% from 192 flights
- September 2023: 73.0% from 206 flights
- October 2023: 80.3% from 214 flights
- November 2023: 84.5% from 187 flights
- December 2023: 81.7% from 154 flights
- January 2024: 69.8% from 166 flights
- February 2024: 83.5% from 159 flights
- March 2024: 77.2% from 190 flights
- April 2024: 81.0% from 171 flights
- May 2024: 74.1% from 209 flights
- June 2024: 71.1% from 227 flights
- July 2024: 61.0% from 221 flights
- August 2024: 64.7% from 240 flights
- September 2024: 79.2% from 226 flights
- October 2024: 83.2% from 245 flights
- November 2024: 85.5% from 207 flights
- December 2024: 82.6% from 190 flights
- January 2025: 77.3% from 170 flights
- February 2025: 70.5% from 165 flights
- March 2025: 79.9% from 196 flights
- April 2025: 75.8% from 219 flights
- May 2025: 73.7% from 232 flights
- June 2025: 65.7% from 211 flights
- July 2025: 64.7% from 219 flights
- August 2025: 65.0% from 201 flights
- September 2025: 82.1% from 207 flights
- October 2025: 74.1% from 244 flights
- November 2025: 74.7% from 191 flights
- December 2025: 60.6% from 197 flights
- January 2026: 74.4% from 194 flights
- February 2026: 79.5% from 179 flights
- March 2026: 77.1% from 196 flights
- April 2026: 84.7% from 235 flights
- May 2026: 85.7% from 247 flights
- June 2026: 73.5% from 250 flights
- July 2026: 64.6% from 261 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.7% against 75.1% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,595 PHL → RDU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed