Route profile
RDU→PHL
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Raleigh–Durham to Philadelphia, 337 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 8% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,594 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
RDU → PHL arrives on time 73.5% of the time; the return trip, PHL → RDU, arrives on time 74.5% of the time.
RDU → PHL spends 27.7 minutes on the ground on a 337-mile trip: 18.8 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RDU and 8.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHL.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 91% of 4,598 comparable routes.
A typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth run 72 minutes worse than that.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where RDU to PHL differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RDU to PHL struggles most at 4 PM: 57.2% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 17 points behind the 74.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.5 points.
Monday is the day RDU to PHL slips furthest against routes of similar length, 71.0% on time where they average 79.3%, 8.3 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 6.3 points.
In August, RDU to PHL runs 14.8 points below routes of similar length, 65.1% on time to 79.9%. Against all other routes the gap is 11.4 points.
American Airlines’ flights on RDU to PHL arrive on time 72.8% of the time, 4.1 points below the 76.9% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 2.3 points.
RDU to PHL against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 57.2% | routes of similar length | 74.2% | −17.0 pts | 890 here, 68,348 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 71.0% | routes of similar length | 79.3% | −8.3 pts | 1,144 here, 164,851 there |
| Month: August | 65.1% | routes of similar length | 79.9% | −14.8 pts | 613 here, 91,858 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 72.8% | routes of similar length | 76.9% | −4.1 pts | 4,017 here, 138,795 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 337 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why RDU → PHL flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
RDU → PHL cancelled 204 of 7,594 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 37. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 71.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 52 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 204 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
145 cancellations, 71.1% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
51 cancellations, 25.0% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
8 cancellations, 3.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
204 coded cancellations were recorded on RDU → PHL; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
66 min late
against a median of 6 min early
RDU → PHL has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 72 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 7,594 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHL after arriving from RDU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 18% | High risk |
| 90 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 7.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.69% of the time and diverts 0.08% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,384 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 66 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,594 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RDU → PHL flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 84.4% of the time, against 61.0% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 23.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 89.2% on time from 602 flights
- 7 AM: 84.9% on time from 532 flights
- 8 AM: 80.3% on time from 768 flights
- 9 AM: 83.8% on time from 157 flights
- 10 AM: 89.9% on time from 202 flights
- 11 AM: 79.8% on time from 1,050 flights
- 12 PM: 80.4% on time from 456 flights
- 1 PM: 74.6% on time from 478 flights
- 2 PM: 76.9% on time from 148 flights
- 3 PM: 68.2% on time from 336 flights
- 4 PM: 57.2% on time from 914 flights
- 5 PM: 62.9% on time from 534 flights
- 6 PM: 59.0% on time from 647 flights
- 7 PM: 62.7% on time from 341 flights
- 8 PM: 69.2% on time from 149 flights
- 9 PM: 69.0% on time from 136 flights
- 10 PM: 71.2% on time from 120 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why RDU → PHL runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RDU → PHL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on RDU → PHL, at 60.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 84.4% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 61.0%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 4,111 | 72.8% | 2.24% | -4 min | 10.7% |
| Frontier Airlines | 2,091 | 72.7% | 2.97% | -8 min | 12.3% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,037 | 73.6% | 4.05% | -5 min | 11.3% |
| Republic Airways | 355 | 85.0% | 2.25% | -13 min | 4.9% |
American Airlines flew 54.1% of the 7,594 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 4.05% of its flights here against 2.24% for American Airlines.
Republic Airways arrived on time 12.3 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 6.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 78.6%
- Feb: 80.3%
- Mar: 76.6%
- Apr: 78.1%
- May: 75.4%
- Jun: 69.3%
- Jul: 62.4%
- Aug: 65.1%
- Sep: 73.3%
- Oct: 77.0%
- Nov: 78.6%
- Dec: 73.5%
July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 17.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 59.9% from 177 flights
- August 2023: 67.6% from 192 flights
- September 2023: 66.7% from 206 flights
- October 2023: 79.8% from 214 flights
- November 2023: 82.9% from 187 flights
- December 2023: 83.6% from 153 flights
- January 2024: 83.6% from 166 flights
- February 2024: 87.3% from 159 flights
- March 2024: 77.2% from 190 flights
- April 2024: 78.0% from 170 flights
- May 2024: 77.5% from 208 flights
- June 2024: 68.8% from 226 flights
- July 2024: 64.6% from 220 flights
- August 2024: 65.8% from 241 flights
- September 2024: 74.7% from 226 flights
- October 2024: 77.8% from 245 flights
- November 2024: 81.6% from 207 flights
- December 2024: 75.3% from 190 flights
- January 2025: 77.6% from 171 flights
- February 2025: 72.4% from 165 flights
- March 2025: 75.6% from 196 flights
- April 2025: 72.5% from 219 flights
- May 2025: 66.2% from 232 flights
- June 2025: 64.3% from 211 flights
- July 2025: 57.5% from 219 flights
- August 2025: 61.9% from 201 flights
- September 2025: 78.2% from 207 flights
- October 2025: 73.9% from 245 flights
- November 2025: 71.2% from 193 flights
- December 2025: 63.7% from 197 flights
- January 2026: 75.0% from 194 flights
- February 2026: 81.0% from 178 flights
- March 2026: 76.9% from 197 flights
- April 2026: 83.3% from 235 flights
- May 2026: 82.2% from 247 flights
- June 2026: 74.1% from 249 flights
- July 2026: 66.4% from 261 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.0% against 71.5% in the 12 months before — improving by 2.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,594 RDU → PHL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed