FlyerIntel Research
What a Night on the Ground Does for a Late Aircraft
After a long stay on the ground a late landing barely reaches the next flight, and how much it does depends on the airport.
Published October 12, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – July 2026
Summary
After 6 hours or more on the ground, 12.3% of the flights that followed a late landing left late, against 9.9% after an on-time landing. The difference runs from -2.4 points at CLT to +6.7 points at SBA. At CLT, 24.7% of the flights left late even after an on-time landing.
Key findings
- After 6 hours or more on the ground, 12.3% of flights left 15 or more minutes late following a late landing and 9.9% following an on-time one (+2.4 points).
- With 60 to 89 minutes scheduled, the most common turn, 68.4% left late after a late landing and 9.3% after an on-time one.
- By airport the difference runs from -2.4 points at CLT to +6.7 points at SBA.
- At 6 of 63 airports the difference is under 3 standard errors from zero.
- At CLT, 24.7% of the flights after a long stay left late even though the aircraft had landed on time.
What a long stay on the ground absorbs
When an aircraft lands 15 or more minutes late and the next flight is scheduled to leave 6 hours or more later, most of the delay is gone by the time the next flight leaves. With the most common scheduled turn, 60 to 89 minutes, 68.4% of the flights after a late landing left late, against 9.3% after an on-time landing. With 6 hours or more, 12.3% left late after a late landing and 9.9% after an on-time one, a difference of +2.4 points. The difference is not zero, and it is not the same everywhere.
Flights that left 15 or more minutes late, by scheduled time on the ground
| Scheduled time on the ground | Departures | Left late after a late landing | Left late after an on-time landing | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30 minutes | 188,443 | 100.0% | 66.7% | +33.3 points |
| 30 to 44 minutes | 2,068,099 | 93.0% | 14.3% | +78.7 points |
| 45 to 59 minutes | 4,255,284 | 85.2% | 10.5% | +74.7 points |
| 60 to 89 minutes | 4,763,481 | 68.4% | 9.3% | +59.1 points |
| 90 minutes to 3 hours | 1,502,475 | 40.4% | 9.3% | +31.1 points |
| 3 to 6 hours | 564,565 | 26.0% | 12.1% | +14.0 points |
| 6 hours or more | 2,567,424 | 12.3% | 9.9% | +2.4 points |
Covered airports. A late landing is an arrival 15 or more minutes after schedule; an on-time landing is anything earlier than that. The overnight stays beyond the longest turn band are not in the data.
Airports where 6 hours or more on the ground left the least of a late landing behind
| Airport | City | Departures after a late arrival | Left late after a late arrival | Left late after an on-time arrival | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLT | Charlotte | 13,638 | 22.3% | 24.7% | -2.4 points |
| MIA | Miami | 17,369 | 18.9% | 19.6% | -0.7 points |
| HOU | Houston | 6,377 | 9.6% | 10.3% | -0.6 points |
| DFW | Dallas–Fort Worth | 28,559 | 23.9% | 23.5% | +0.4 points |
| FLL | Fort Lauderdale | 20,112 | 19.0% | 18.4% | +0.6 points |
| EWR | Newark | 18,077 | 11.0% | 10.4% | +0.7 points |
| BWI | Baltimore | 12,206 | 11.7% | 11.0% | +0.7 points |
| MCO | Orlando | 28,752 | 12.2% | 11.0% | +1.2 points |
| PHX | Phoenix | 19,286 | 10.8% | 9.6% | +1.2 points |
| OAK | Oakland | 5,985 | 6.8% | 5.3% | +1.5 points |
Covered airports with at least 1,000 departures in each arm, after 6 hours or more on the ground. Difference is the share leaving late after a late landing minus the share leaving late after an on-time one.
Airports where a late landing still showed in the next morning’s departure
| Airport | City | Departures after a late arrival | Left late after a late arrival | Left late after an on-time arrival | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBA | Santa Barbara | 1,637 | 13.3% | 6.6% | +6.7 points |
| MEM | Memphis | 7,003 | 12.4% | 7.0% | +5.4 points |
| MSP | Minneapolis | 11,692 | 12.5% | 7.8% | +4.6 points |
| OMA | Omaha | 5,842 | 11.0% | 6.4% | +4.6 points |
| ORD | Chicago | 24,355 | 16.4% | 12.0% | +4.4 points |
| CHS | Charleston | 4,763 | 9.9% | 5.6% | +4.3 points |
| BNA | Nashville | 13,551 | 11.2% | 7.0% | +4.2 points |
| MKE | Milwaukee | 7,641 | 11.9% | 7.7% | +4.2 points |
| DTW | Detroit | 14,472 | 13.1% | 8.9% | +4.2 points |
| DCA | Washington | 22,009 | 12.2% | 8.1% | +4.1 points |
Same measure, the airports at the other end of the list.
Where the morning is late whatever happened the night before
Across the 63 airports the difference runs from -2.4 points at CLT to +6.7 points at SBA. At 6 of them it is under 3 standard errors from zero (MIA, HOU, DFW, FLL, EWR, and BWI). CLT sent 24.7% of its flights after a long stay out late even when the aircraft had landed on time. Across airports the correlation between that rate and the difference is -0.63, so the airports whose mornings are already late are the ones where last night’s delay adds the least.
What this does not show
The 6 hours or more band is mostly an overnight stay but it also holds a long gap in the middle of a day, and the data does not separate them. An aircraft that lands late at night and leaves early the next morning is the same as one that lands late and sits out a long afternoon gap. The difference between the two arms is a description and not an effect of a late landing alone. Flights after a late landing are not otherwise identical to flights after an on-time one, and a night with bad weather makes both the landing and the morning late.
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,708,321 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through July 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Aircraft are followed by tail number: a flight is linked to the same aircraft’s previous flight into the airport it left from, using the same rules as the report What a Late Aircraft Costs the Next Flight. Only departures whose scheduled turn was 6 hours or more are used here. A late landing is an arrival 15 or more minutes after schedule and a late departure is a departure 15 or more minutes after schedule. A difference is called indistinct from zero when it is under 3 standard errors, from the pooled rate and the two counts. Airports with fewer than 1,000 departures in either arm are not listed.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight. The standard errors assume independent flights, which a storm that delays a whole morning is not, so they are a floor.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis