FlyerIntel Research
Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft
The flight numbers whose aircraft arrive late most often are mostly not the ones that leave late because of it.
Published October 12, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – July 2026
Summary
Aircraft behind flight numbers with 6 hours or more on the ground arrived late 28.4% of the time and the flights left late after 12.9% of those arrivals. With under 90 minutes on the ground the aircraft arrived late 18.1% of the time and the flights left late after 66.1% of those arrivals. Of the 26 flight numbers with the most late arrivals, 23 have a median turn of 6 hours or more.
Key findings
- 2,624 flight numbers, 1,904,205 followed departures: the aircraft arrived 15 or more minutes late 21.2% of the time.
- With 6 hours or more scheduled on the ground the aircraft arrived late 28.4% of the time and 12.9% of those flights left late. With under 90 minutes, the aircraft arrived late 18.1% of the time and 66.1% of those flights left late.
- 23 of the 26 flight numbers with the highest share of late arrivals have a median turn of 6 hours or more.
- Across flight numbers the correlation between the median scheduled turn and the share of late arrivals passed on is -0.81.
- DL 1312 (MCO to RDU) left late after 96.0% of its late arrivals and 6.9% of its on-time ones.
Two different questions about a flight number
A flight number can be tied to a late aircraft in two ways. Its aircraft can arrive late often, and the flight can leave late when it does. This report follows 1,904,205 departures on 2,624 flight numbers, each linked to the aircraft’s previous flight, and answers both separately. Across them the aircraft arrived 15 or more minutes late 21.2% of the time. The flight left 15 or more minutes late 44.4% of the time after a late arrival and 11.0% of the time after an on-time one.
By the time the schedule gives the aircraft on the ground
| Median scheduled turn of the flight number | Flight numbers | Departures followed | Aircraft arrived late | Left late after a late arrival | Left late after an on-time arrival | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 90 minutes | 1,626 | 1,203,096 | 18.1% | 66.1% | 12.4% | +53.8 points |
| 90 minutes to under 3 hours | 238 | 164,745 | 20.5% | 40.5% | 11.3% | +29.2 points |
| 3 hours to under 6 hours | 95 | 65,131 | 26.7% | 21.9% | 8.8% | +13.2 points |
| 6 hours or more | 665 | 471,233 | 28.4% | 12.9% | 7.0% | +5.9 points |
Flight numbers are grouped by the median scheduled turn on the route they currently fly. Each group’s rates are pooled over its flights, so a busy flight number counts for more. Difference is the share leaving late after a late arrival minus the share leaving late after an on-time one.
The flight numbers that get the latest aircraft are the ones that absorb it
Aircraft behind flight numbers with 6 hours or more on the ground arrived late 28.4% of the time, against 18.1% for flight numbers with under 90 minutes. They passed it on far less. After a late arrival, 12.9% of the long-turn departures left late, against 66.1% of the short-turn ones. Of the 26 flight numbers whose aircraft arrived late most often, 23 have a median turn of 6 hours or more; together they left late 16.3% of the time after a late arrival. Across all 2,624 flight numbers the share of late arrivals and the share passed on have a correlation of -0.31. The median turn and the share passed on have a correlation of -0.81.
Flight numbers whose aircraft arrive late most often
| Flight number | Route | Departures followed | Aircraft arrived late | Left late after a late arrival | Left late after an on-time arrival | Median scheduled turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 1651 | SAN to CLT | 593 | 51.4% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.7 hours |
| AA 573 | DEN to CLT | 712 | 51.4% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 9.7 hours |
| AA 2216 | PDX to DFW | 744 | 51.2% | 16.8% | 6.6% | 8.2 hours |
| AA 1960 | SFO to CLT | 627 | 51.2% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 9.8 hours |
| F9 4601 | EWR to ATL | 591 | 51.1% | 39.7% | 8.7% | 4.8 hours |
| AA 1704 | TPA to CLT | 428 | 48.8% | 18.7% | 13.2% | 10.3 hours |
| AA 1055 | SAN to DFW | 521 | 47.8% | 12.9% | 7.0% | 8.5 hours |
| AA 2728 | EWR to DFW | 980 | 47.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0 hours |
| AA 2904 | SFO to DFW | 518 | 47.5% | 15.4% | 11.4% | 10.3 hours |
| AA 2505 | EWR to CLT | 572 | 47.4% | 11.4% | 5.6% | 7.1 hours |
Flight numbers with at least 300 followed departures and 30 in each of the two arms (late arrival and on-time arrival). Rates are over the followed departures of the flight number on the route it flies now.
Where a late aircraft does reach the passenger
The flight numbers that pass a late arrival on are the short turns. DL 1312 (MCO to RDU) left late after 96.0% of its late arrivals and after 6.9% of its on-time ones, a difference of +89.1 points, with a median scheduled turn of 55 minutes. The aircraft behind it arrived late 20.1% of the time, which is less often than the 21.2% across all of them.
Flight numbers where a late arrival most reliably becomes a late departure
| Flight number | Route | Departures followed | Aircraft arrived late | Left late after a late arrival | Left late after an on-time arrival | Median scheduled turn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 1312 | MCO to RDU | 617 | 20.1% | 96.0% | 6.9% | 55 minutes |
| F9 4372 | SNA to DEN | 741 | 16.7% | 88.7% | 4.1% | 50 minutes |
| AS 3 | DCA to SEA | 1,101 | 18.7% | 94.2% | 9.6% | 60 minutes |
| F9 2638 | SFO to PHX | 604 | 43.2% | 90.8% | 6.4% | 50 minutes |
| AS 641 | TUS to SEA | 1,011 | 21.9% | 92.8% | 8.9% | 56 minutes |
| B6 2474 | CHS to JFK | 726 | 18.9% | 95.6% | 11.9% | 45 minutes |
| DL 2551 | PDX to LAX | 958 | 11.7% | 85.7% | 2.1% | 58 minutes |
| DL 1682 | IAH to ATL | 976 | 16.9% | 94.5% | 11.0% | 65 minutes |
| F9 1401 | BNA to DEN | 604 | 21.7% | 90.1% | 7.0% | 55 minutes |
| DL 1018 | FLL to RDU | 1,042 | 19.6% | 92.2% | 9.3% | 55 minutes |
Flight numbers with at least 100 departures after a late arrival, ordered by the share leaving late after a late arrival minus the share leaving late after an on-time one.
What this does not show
A flight number is a schedule slot, and the aircraft that flies it changes from day to day, so a flight number describes the slot and not a particular aircraft. The previous flight is known only when the aircraft has a tail number on both flights. A flight with no linked previous flight is not counted. A late arrival ahead of a long night on the ground costs the next flight little, so a high share of late arrivals is not a warning for these flight numbers.
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,708,321 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through July 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Aircraft are followed by tail number: a flight is linked to the same aircraft’s previous flight into the airport it left from, using the same rules as the report What a Late Aircraft Costs the Next Flight. A late arrival is a previous flight that landed 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival. Each flight number is taken on the route it currently flies. Flight numbers with fewer than 300 followed departures, or fewer than 30 in either arm, are not listed. Group figures are pooled over the departures of the flight numbers in the group.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight. The turn groups use each flight number’s median scheduled turn, so a flight number that is a short turn on some days and an overnight on others sits in one group.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis