Flight profile · United Airlines
UA1616
Nashville (BNA) to Chicago (ORD) · scheduled 12:55 PM – 2:50 PM
How UA1616 performs
689 operations, January 2024 – July 2026.
UA1616 arrived on time 85.1% of the time, against 76.1% for all BNA → ORD flights, so this departure is 9.0 percentage points better than the route as a whole. Against United Airlines’ own flights on this route it is 8.2 points better.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 689 operations, January 2024 – July 2026 · If UA1616 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
Where UA1616 is right now
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Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UA1616 | 85.1% | 1.02% | -7 min | 5.7% | 689 |
| United Airlines on BNA → ORD | 76.9% | 1.56% | -2 min | 8.2% | 3,593 |
| All BNA → ORD flights | 76.1% | 1.91% | -4 min | 9.6% | 15,001 |
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · January 2024 – July 2026
Why UA1616 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for UA1616 on BNA → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering January 2024 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies UA1616 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
The aircraft flying UA1616 came in 15 or more minutes late on 10% of the departures where its previous flight is known. There are not enough departures in both groups to say how the flight left after a late one and after an on-time one.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into BNA just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 634 of 682 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late |
|---|---|
| UA1616 | 10% |
| Network, same turn | 17% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 60 to 89 minutes. How often UA1616’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is lower than the network’s. There are not enough departures in both groups to compare how it left.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering January 2024 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves BNA late, does that still matter by the time it reaches ORD?
UA1616 pushes back an average of 8.6 minutes late and reaches the gate at ORD an average of 5.6 minutes late. The 3.0 minutes between those two figures are slack the published schedule already carries, which is why a late pushback on this flight does not reliably become a late arrival. It spends 19.2 minutes on the taxiways at BNA, 4.1 minutes longer than a typical BNA departure in the same hour.
On arrival at ORD, UA1616 spends 16.8 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is 1.0 minutes shorter than a typical ORD arrival (17.8 min).
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached ORD. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 19,170 departures from BNA scheduled in the clock hour UA1616 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at ORD (952,666 flights), not just UA1616’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · January 2024 – July 2026
The hour it leaves BNA
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. UA1616 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 19,170 departures from BNA are scheduled in the 12 PM–1 PM hour over the period, against 319,645 across the whole day.
UA1616 is scheduled out of BNA at 12:55 PM, in the 12 PM–1 PM bank. Departures from BNA in that hour arrive on time 82.1% of the time against 78.3% across the airport’s whole day — the slot alone is worth 3.8 points better before anything about this particular flight is considered.
The two airport figures cover every departure from BNA to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · January 2024 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
Other routes UA1616 has flown
A flight number is a slot in a schedule, and carriers reassign it. These are the other city pairs this number served in the analysis period.
| Route | Operated | Flights | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| EWR→BNA Newark to Nashville | May 21, 2026 – July 31, 2026 | 71 | — |
| ORD→PDX Chicago to Portland | December 19, 2024 – June 24, 2026 | 67 | — |
| ORD→LGA Chicago to New York | March 7, 2024 – April 29, 2026 | 52 | — |
| ORD→PBI Chicago to West Palm Beach | March 5–28, 2026 | 24 | — |
| ORD→RDU Chicago to Raleigh–Durham | January 6, 2026 – March 4, 2026 | 52 | — |
| LAX→LAS Los Angeles to Las Vegas | January 5, 2026 | 1 | — |
| RSW→DEN Fort Myers to Denver | December 18, 2025 – January 4, 2026 | 15 | — |
| ORD→DEN Chicago to Denver | December 2–17, 2025 | 16 | — |
| ORD→SNA Chicago to Santa Ana | September 25, 2025 – October 25, 2025 | 31 | — |
| ORD→GRR Chicago to Grand Rapids | June 26, 2025 – September 24, 2025 | 90 | 64.4% |
| ORD→DCA Chicago to Washington | February 13, 2025 – June 25, 2025 | 109 | 55.6% |
| ORD→IAD Chicago to Washington | October 27, 2024 – December 2, 2024 | 36 | — |
| ORD→XNA Chicago to Fayetteville/Springdale/Rogers | June 7, 2024 | 1 | — |
| ORD→BTV Chicago to Burlington | February 15, 2024 – March 6, 2024 | 21 | — |
| ORD→LAS Chicago to Las Vegas | January 13, 2024 – February 12, 2024 | 2 | — |
| ORD→MIA Chicago to Miami | January 11, 2024 – February 11, 2024 | 18 | — |
| MEM→DEN Memphis to Denver | December 21, 2023 – January 8, 2024 | 19 | — |
| DEN→MEM Denver to Memphis | July 1, 2023 – December 20, 2023 | 143 | 90.1% |
| EWR→LAX Newark to Los Angeles | October 29, 2023 – November 27, 2023 | 30 | — |
| IAH→DEN Houston to Denver | July 1–31, 2023 | 31 | — |
Because the same number has served different journeys, the statistics above describe only the route UA1616 currently operates. Blending them would produce an average of two different flights.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
24 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 689 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering January 2024 – July 2026
Other flights on this route
Same airports, same journey, different odds of arriving on time.
| Flight | Airline | On time | Median arrival | Operations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OO5741 | SkyWest Airlines | 88.6% | 8 min early | 923 |
| UA1616 this flight | United Airlines | 85.1% | 7 min early | 689 |
Every departure listed carries at least 600 operations, so the comparison is between figures that mean something. UA1616 is placed in the same ordering rather than left out of it; the rows around it are the most punctual departures on the route, not all of them, so this is a comparison and not a rank. Schedules change; confirm the departure still operates before booking around this.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 689 records of UA1616 operating BNA → ORD, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
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