ORD → DCA Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Destination · DCANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:52 UTC

Washington airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

46/ 100Fair

Better than 10% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 20,159 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

73.0%

14,297 of 19,588

Cancellation rate

2.28%

460 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-3 min

Average 15.6 min

Severe delays

10.6%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

81 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

20,159

4 carriers

ORD → DCA arrives on time 73.0% of the time; the return trip, DCA → ORD, arrives on time 79.0% of the time, a 6.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

ORD → DCA spends 29.5 minutes on the ground on a 612-mile trip: 23.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ORD and 5.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why ORD → DCA flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

ORD → DCA cancelled 460 of 20,159 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 44. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 71.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 62 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather71.1%

Airline18.3%

Air traffic10.7%

Security0.0%

Of 460 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 62

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

327 cancellations, 71.1% of the total.

The airline1 in 240

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

84 cancellations, 18.3% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 411

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

49 cancellations, 10.7% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

460 coded cancellations were recorded on ORD → DCA; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

63 min late

against a median of 3 min early

Arrived an hour or more late10.6%

Typical delay when late81 min

Cancelled2.28%

Landed somewhere else0.55%

ORD → DCA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth are 66 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 20,159 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at DCA after arriving from ORD.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, ORD → DCA arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	43%	Likely to miss
45 min	26%	High risk
60 min	18%	High risk
90 min	10%	Some risk
120 min	6.7%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.28% of the time and diverts 0.55% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 19,588 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 63 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 20,159 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

ORD → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.0% of the time, against 62.3% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 23.7 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (ORD).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.9 points.

On-time arrival rate for ORD to DCA by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 9 PM (573 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for ORD to DCA. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	81.0% on time312 flights	86.4% on time312 flights	87.6% on time309 flights	85.2% on time311 flights	82.9% on time306 flights	92.6% on time153 flights	92.0% on time284 flights
7 AM–8 AM	87.7% on time173 flights	92.0% on time175 flights	90.6% on time172 flights	91.9% on time174 flights	88.1% on time171 flights	88.4% on time157 flights	86.7% on time190 flights
8 AM–9 AM	80.4% on time265 flights	85.8% on time266 flights	86.7% on time264 flights	86.5% on time264 flights	78.0% on time261 flights	86.0% on time200 flights	81.9% on time253 flights
9 AM–10 AM	76.3% on time197 flights	81.6% on time198 flights	82.5% on time197 flights	81.3% on time195 flights	74.7% on time196 flights	74 flights, too few to score	76.3% on time198 flights
10 AM–11 AM	110 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	109 flights, too few to score	109 flights, too few to score	109 flights, too few to score	32 flights, too few to score	104 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	65.9% on time261 flights	74.5% on time266 flights	71.2% on time265 flights	68.2% on time263 flights	67.1% on time263 flights	73.8% on time261 flights	71.4% on time260 flights
12 PM–1 PM	70.4% on time201 flights	77.9% on time198 flights	71.8% on time197 flights	70.8% on time195 flights	67.5% on time197 flights	102 flights, too few to score	68.2% on time200 flights
1 PM–2 PM	69.6% on time175 flights	72.9% on time173 flights	61.1% on time172 flights	66.5% on time173 flights	63.4% on time175 flights	75.5% on time158 flights	60.7% on time173 flights
2 PM–3 PM	62.9% on time156 flights	68.4% on time156 flights	67.1% on time156 flights	69.1% on time155 flights	63.0% on time153 flights	76.5% on time152 flights	66.4% on time155 flights
3 PM–4 PM	73.2% on time202 flights	75.9% on time204 flights	69.7% on time205 flights	69.3% on time198 flights	68.7% on time205 flights	70 flights, too few to score	71.0% on time200 flights
4 PM–5 PM	64.3% on time220 flights	63.7% on time218 flights	64.5% on time216 flights	60.6% on time215 flights	59.4% on time221 flights	101 flights, too few to score	66.7% on time220 flights
5 PM–6 PM	76 flights, too few to score	75 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	64.2% on time186 flights	57.9% on time183 flights	51.4% on time183 flights	54.7% on time179 flights	55.9% on time182 flights	75.1% on time178 flights	61.8% on time182 flights
7 PM–8 PM	67.8% on time255 flights	69.4% on time257 flights	62.3% on time256 flights	59.1% on time252 flights	55.0% on time257 flights	78.2% on time238 flights	55.0% on time255 flights
8 PM–9 PM	59.4% on time146 flights	66.9% on time144 flights	68.1% on time143 flights	58.8% on time145 flights	62.5% on time145 flights	74.8% on time126 flights	49.3% on time145 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM86.0%

9 AM–12 PM75.5%

12–3 PM68.9%

3–6 PM67.9%

6–9 PM62.3%

9 PM–5 AM69.1%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why ORD → DCA runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft41.7%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline28.0%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control24.6%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather5.4%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.3%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ORD → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on ORD → DCA, at 41.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 86.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.3%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of ORD to DCA: 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD and 4.2 times at DCA. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: ORD 6.5% against 1.2%, DCA 9.3% against 2.2%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from ORD and DCA in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	ORD	DCA
Cancelled in bad weather	6.5%	9.3%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.2%	2.2%
Arrived on time, bad weather	55.7%	63.5%
Arrived on time, normal hours	77.1%	78.3%
Departures in bad weather	104,455	41,449

Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (3.5% cancelled against 7.4% for the other carriers at ORD) cancelled the fewest departures from ORD in bad weather and SkyWest Airlines (10.7% cancelled against 5.8% for the other carriers at ORD) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

All departures from ORD

Cancellation rates in bad weather at ORD for the airlines that fly ORD to DCA, against the other carriers at ORD in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	31,269	3.5%below the others	7.4%
American Airlines	17,789	5.4%below the others	6.7%
Republic Airways	9,471	8.1%above the others	6.5%
SkyWest Airlines	21,044	10.7%above the others	5.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from ORD and DCA, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from ORD on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: ORD (airlines), DCA, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
United Airlines	10,323	74.6%	1.63%	-4 min	9.4%
American Airlines	7,669	70.5%	2.78%	-1 min	12.4%
Republic Airways	1,550	72.4%	4.06%	-5 min	10.7%
SkyWest Airlines	446	74.9%	2.69%	-5 min	9.7%

United Airlines flew 51.6% of the 19,988 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.06% of its flights here against 1.63% for United Airlines.

SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 4.4 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
AA2345 American Airlines	8:05 AM	633	74.4%
UA1077 United Airlines	6:00 AM	615	90.0%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon72.3%

Tue76.1%

Wed73.0%

Thu72.0%

Fri69.0%

Sat79.0%

Sun71.1%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 10.0 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 15.7 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.8% against 73.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.4 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 20,159 ORD → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

ORD airport DCA airport Return direction DCA → ORD

ORD→DCA

Right now

Route reliability

Why ORD → DCA flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why ORD → DCA runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology