BNA → ORD Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · BNANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Nashville airport profile →

Destination · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

52/ 100Fair

Better than 19% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 15,001 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

76.1%

11,165 of 14,679

Cancellation rate

1.91%

286 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-4 min

Average 13.6 min

Severe delays

9.6%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

86 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

15,001

7 carriers

BNA → ORD arrives on time 76.1% of the time; the return trip, ORD → BNA, arrives on time 75.3% of the time.

BNA → ORD spends 36.5 minutes on the ground on a 409-mile trip: 19.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at BNA and 16.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

The airline matters unusually much on this route, a wider carrier-to-carrier gap than 93% of 2,692 comparable routes.

Southwest Airlines arrived on time 80.2% of the time, against 60.3% for Frontier Airlines, flying the exact same route.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.

Why BNA → ORD flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

BNA → ORD cancelled 286 of 15,001 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 52. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 71.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 74 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather71.0%

Air traffic16.4%

Airline12.6%

Security0.0%

Of 286 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 74

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

203 cancellations, 71.0% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 319

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

47 cancellations, 16.4% of the total.

The airline1 in 417

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

36 cancellations, 12.6% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

286 coded cancellations were recorded on BNA → ORD; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

56 min late

against a median of 4 min early

Arrived an hour or more late9.6%

Typical delay when late86 min

Cancelled1.91%

Landed somewhere else0.24%

BNA → ORD has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 60 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 15,001 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at ORD after arriving from BNA.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, BNA → ORD arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	40%	Likely to miss
45 min	23%	High risk
60 min	16%	High risk
90 min	9.5%	Some risk
120 min	6.6%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.91% of the time and diverts 0.24% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 14,679 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 56 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 15,001 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

BNA → ORD flights departing 9 AM–12 PM arrived on time 85.2% of the time, against 60.9% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 24.3 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (BNA).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 11.4 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.8 points.

On-time arrival rate for BNA to ORD by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 6 PM (1,136 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for BNA to ORD. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	80.8% on time134 flights	110 flights, too few to score	115 flights, too few to score	85.3% on time129 flights	85.6% on time130 flights	112 flights, too few to score	86.6% on time129 flights
6 AM–7 AM	85.0% on time211 flights	95.0% on time204 flights	91.4% on time202 flights	90.3% on time207 flights	88.4% on time210 flights	84.9% on time171 flights	90.6% on time193 flights
7 AM–8 AM	77.2% on time209 flights	76.1% on time211 flights	77.3% on time215 flights	72.6% on time214 flights	72.6% on time213 flights	75.6% on time196 flights	74.1% on time204 flights
8 AM–9 AM	81 flights, too few to score	77 flights, too few to score	77 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	77 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score
9 AM–10 AM	84.5% on time130 flights	119 flights, too few to score	89.8% on time129 flights	89.2% on time131 flights	86.6% on time125 flights	87.5% on time145 flights	86.3% on time133 flights
10 AM–11 AM	85.9% on time253 flights	84.3% on time283 flights	84.9% on time276 flights	87.4% on time253 flights	89.1% on time252 flights	85.0% on time224 flights	82.1% on time256 flights
11 AM–12 PM	114 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	100 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score	57 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	84.8% on time231 flights	85.9% on time207 flights	85.3% on time220 flights	80.5% on time232 flights	78.4% on time237 flights	85.9% on time201 flights	80.3% on time221 flights
1 PM–2 PM	63 flights, too few to score	67 flights, too few to score	58 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	63 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	113 flights, too few to score	75 flights, too few to score	83 flights, too few to score	93 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	67.3% on time211 flights	75.9% on time179 flights	80.2% on time182 flights	67.3% on time207 flights	69.8% on time209 flights	80.0% on time145 flights	59.4% on time184 flights
4 PM–5 PM	61.9% on time165 flights	62.3% on time167 flights	64.7% on time157 flights	50.3% on time161 flights	53.3% on time174 flights	60.6% on time168 flights	48.9% on time193 flights
5 PM–6 PM	52.8% on time151 flights	69.2% on time134 flights	63.9% on time137 flights	46.4% on time156 flights	55.3% on time155 flights	61.0% on time124 flights	55.2% on time166 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM82.5%

9 AM–12 PM85.2%

12–3 PM77.9%

3–6 PM62.4%

6–9 PM60.9%

9 PM–5 AM—

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.

Why BNA → ORD runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

The airline37.6%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Late-arriving aircraft29.7%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control26.0%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather6.7%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for BNA → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of BNA to ORD: 4.4 times the normal rate at BNA and 5.5 times at ORD. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: BNA 4.7% against 1.1%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from BNA and ORD in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	BNA	ORD
Cancelled in bad weather	4.7%	6.5%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.1%	1.2%
Arrived on time, bad weather	66.5%	55.7%
Arrived on time, normal hours	79.0%	77.1%
Departures in bad weather	20,643	104,455

Of the carriers on this route, Southwest Airlines (4.3% cancelled against 5.4% for the other carriers at BNA) cancelled the fewest departures from BNA in bad weather and Republic Airways (6.6% cancelled against 5.3% for the other carriers at BNA) the most. One more carrier flies this route but has too few bad-weather departures from BNA to compare.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at BNA

All departures from BNA

Cancellation rates in bad weather at BNA for the airlines that fly BNA to ORD, against the other carriers at BNA in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	10,655	4.3%below the others	5.4%
United Airlines	1,328	3.9%about level	4.2%
SkyWest Airlines	845	4.9%about level	4.7%
American Airlines	1,819	4.9%about level	4.4%
Republic Airways	1,292	6.6%above the others	5.3%
Envoy Air	508	6.5%about level	5.1%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from BNA and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from BNA on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: BNA (airlines), ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
SkyWest Airlines	4,872	75.8%	2.16%	-5 min	11.8%
United Airlines	3,593	76.9%	1.56%	-2 min	8.2%
Envoy Air	2,182	75.1%	2.38%	-4 min	9.0%
Southwest Airlines	2,062	80.2%	1.41%	-5 min	5.0%
Republic Airways	1,154	77.1%	2.25%	-5 min	7.8%
American Airlines	808	70.1%	1.36%	-4 min	15.6%
Frontier Airlines	284	60.3%	2.46%	1 min	16.6%

SkyWest Airlines flew 32.6% of the 14,955 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.46% of its flights here against 1.36% for American Airlines.

Southwest Airlines arrived on time 19.9 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
UA1616 United Airlines	12:55 PM	689	85.1%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon75.2%

Tue79.6%

Wed79.8%

Thu73.6%

Fri74.3%

Sat78.3%

Sun72.4%

Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.4 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 14.3 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.5% against 76.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.2 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 15,001 BNA → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

BNA airport ORD airport Return direction ORD → BNA

BNA→ORD

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why BNA → ORD flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why BNA → ORD runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at BNA

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology