Route profile
ORD→MIA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Miami, 1,197 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 37% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 13,646 flights. How this is calculated
ORD → MIA arrives on time 76.1% of the time; the return trip, MIA → ORD, arrives on time 74.3% of the time.
ORD → MIA spends 31.5 minutes on the ground on a 1,197-mile trip: 20.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ORD and 10.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at MIA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Why ORD → MIA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
ORD → MIA cancelled 183 of 13,646 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 75. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 76.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 97 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 183 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
140 cancellations, 76.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
25 cancellations, 13.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
18 cancellations, 9.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
183 coded cancellations were recorded on ORD → MIA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
51 min late
against a median of 6 min early
Percentiles over 13,646 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MIA after arriving from ORD.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | High risk |
| 90 min | 8.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.1% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.34% of the time and diverts 0.40% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 13,408 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 51 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 13,646 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
ORD → MIA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.9% of the time, against 65.8% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 20.1 percentage points.
By day and hour
On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (ORD).
Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 8.8 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.7 points.
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 AM–6 AM | |||||||
| 6 AM–7 AM | |||||||
| 7 AM–8 AM | |||||||
| 8 AM–9 AM | |||||||
| 9 AM–10 AM | |||||||
| 10 AM–11 AM | |||||||
| 11 AM–12 PM | |||||||
| 12 PM–1 PM | |||||||
| 1 PM–2 PM | |||||||
| 2 PM–3 PM | |||||||
| 3 PM–4 PM | |||||||
| 4 PM–5 PM | |||||||
| 5 PM–6 PM | |||||||
| 6 PM–7 PM |
On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time
- 60–64
- 65–69
- 70–74
- 75–79
- 80–84
- 85–89
- 90–94
- Fewer than 120 flights, not scored
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.
No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 5 AM and after 7 PM (765 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.
View as tableHide table
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 AM–6 AM | 91.8% on time161 flights | 90.5% on time160 flights | 93.1% on time160 flights | 93.0% on time161 flights | 93.1% on time161 flights | 84.9% on time161 flights | 89.3% on time160 flights |
| 6 AM–7 AM | 87.6% on time154 flights | 90.2% on time145 flights | 88.3% on time146 flights | 88.9% on time153 flights | 89.2% on time163 flights | 88.5% on time159 flights | 89.3% on time149 flights |
| 7 AM–8 AM | 91.7% on time223 flights | 85.1% on time212 flights | 85.8% on time193 flights | 91.7% on time218 flights | 83.5% on time223 flights | 82.1% on time214 flights | 79.7% on time224 flights |
| 8 AM–9 AM | 82.4% on time172 flights | 82.8% on time172 flights | 82.5% on time173 flights | 80.7% on time178 flights | 75.6% on time172 flights | 76.3% on time177 flights | 74.7% on time177 flights |
| 9 AM–10 AM | 45 flights, too few to score | 53 flights, too few to score | 45 flights, too few to score | 56 flights, too few to score | 47 flights, too few to score | 53 flights, too few to score | 56 flights, too few to score |
| 10 AM–11 AM | 81.8% on time290 flights | 80.6% on time248 flights | 78.5% on time254 flights | 80.6% on time290 flights | 77.7% on time285 flights | 69.6% on time255 flights | 67.4% on time290 flights |
| 11 AM–12 PM | 39 flights, too few to score | 39 flights, too few to score | 39 flights, too few to score | 33 flights, too few to score | 35 flights, too few to score | 38 flights, too few to score | 34 flights, too few to score |
| 12 PM–1 PM | 73.3% on time122 flights | 84.3% on time124 flights | 77.1% on time123 flights | 70.2% on time122 flights | 62.8% on time124 flights | 75.8% on time132 flights | 70.0% on time132 flights |
| 1 PM–2 PM | 78 flights, too few to score | 74 flights, too few to score | 79 flights, too few to score | 78 flights, too few to score | 77 flights, too few to score | 80 flights, too few to score | 79 flights, too few to score |
| 2 PM–3 PM | 94 flights, too few to score | 86 flights, too few to score | 84 flights, too few to score | 93 flights, too few to score | 97 flights, too few to score | 99 flights, too few to score | 77 flights, too few to score |
| 3 PM–4 PM | 104 flights, too few to score | 105 flights, too few to score | 97 flights, too few to score | 102 flights, too few to score | 102 flights, too few to score | 115 flights, too few to score | 59.8% on time125 flights |
| 4 PM–5 PM | 99 flights, too few to score | 112 flights, too few to score | 109 flights, too few to score | 98 flights, too few to score | 100 flights, too few to score | 119 flights, too few to score | 108 flights, too few to score |
| 5 PM–6 PM | 70.1% on time151 flights | 101 flights, too few to score | 101 flights, too few to score | 69.6% on time127 flights | 65.5% on time144 flights | 112 flights, too few to score | 62.6% on time129 flights |
| 6 PM–7 PM | 67.9% on time144 flights | 65.0% on time122 flights | 70.0% on time144 flights | 64.7% on time159 flights | 68.1% on time163 flights | 67.6% on time138 flights | 68.3% on time152 flights |
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 90.8% on time from 1,124 flights
- 6 AM: 88.8% on time from 1,069 flights
- 7 AM: 85.6% on time from 1,507 flights
- 8 AM: 79.3% on time from 1,221 flights
- 9 AM: 75.6% on time from 355 flights
- 10 AM: 76.6% on time from 1,912 flights
- 11 AM: 81.8% on time from 257 flights
- 12 PM: 73.3% on time from 879 flights
- 1 PM: 74.6% on time from 545 flights
- 2 PM: 67.2% on time from 630 flights
- 3 PM: 67.8% on time from 750 flights
- 4 PM: 60.5% on time from 745 flights
- 5 PM: 68.4% on time from 865 flights
- 6 PM: 67.4% on time from 1,022 flights
- 7 PM: 66.6% on time from 585 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why ORD → MIA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ORD → MIA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on ORD → MIA, at 37.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 85.9% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 65.8%.
How this route holds up in bad weather
July 2023 – July 2026
The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 3.3 times at MIA. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: ORD 6.5% against 1.2%, MIA 4.5% against 1.3%. Flights that did leave MIA in bad weather arrived on time 50.6% of the time, against 74.1% in normal hours.
Bad weather and normal hours at the airports
Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026| Departures from | ORD | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Cancelled in bad weather | 6.5% | 4.5% |
| Cancelled in normal hours | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Arrived on time, bad weather | 55.7% | 50.6% |
| Arrived on time, normal hours | 77.1% | 74.1% |
| Departures in bad weather | 104,455 | 15,746 |
United Airlines (3.5% cancelled against 7.4% for the other carriers at ORD) and American Airlines (5.4% cancelled against 6.7% for the other carriers at ORD) cancelled fewer departures from ORD in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.
This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD
All departures from ORD| Airline | Bad-weather departures | Cancelled | Other carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 31,269 | 3.5%below the others | 7.4% |
| American Airlines | 17,789 | 5.4%below the others | 6.7% |
| Spirit Airlines | 2,378 | 4.8%about level | 5.5% |
These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from ORD and MIA, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from ORD on every route.
Weather source and limits. In full: ORD (airlines), MIA, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 9,036 | 76.2% | 1.25% | -6 min | 8.4% |
| United Airlines | 3,090 | 78.3% | 0.94% | -6 min | 7.3% |
| Spirit Airlines | 1,474 | 71.1% | 2.71% | -5 min | 11.8% |
American Airlines flew 66.4% of the 13,600 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 2.71% of its flights here against 0.94% for United Airlines.
United Airlines arrived on time 7.2 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA2984 American Airlines | 5:00 AM | 731 | 91.3% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 70.1%
- Feb: 79.8%
- Mar: 70.9%
- Apr: 79.4%
- May: 75.0%
- Jun: 72.7%
- Jul: 68.5%
- Aug: 71.3%
- Sep: 84.2%
- Oct: 86.8%
- Nov: 86.1%
- Dec: 73.0%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 18.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 61.8% from 339 flights
- August 2023: 70.9% from 340 flights
- September 2023: 81.0% from 338 flights
- October 2023: 86.1% from 370 flights
- November 2023: 89.9% from 397 flights
- December 2023: 73.1% from 439 flights
- January 2024: 63.8% from 423 flights
- February 2024: 82.5% from 372 flights
- March 2024: 71.5% from 419 flights
- April 2024: 81.8% from 380 flights
- May 2024: 66.3% from 368 flights
- June 2024: 73.5% from 329 flights
- July 2024: 72.0% from 331 flights
- August 2024: 67.1% from 335 flights
- September 2024: 88.9% from 308 flights
- October 2024: 91.3% from 338 flights
- November 2024: 89.1% from 332 flights
- December 2024: 75.9% from 408 flights
- January 2025: 76.7% from 409 flights
- February 2025: 78.6% from 361 flights
- March 2025: 77.3% from 434 flights
- April 2025: 82.9% from 382 flights
- May 2025: 80.4% from 370 flights
- June 2025: 77.1% from 334 flights
- July 2025: 69.7% from 338 flights
- August 2025: 75.8% from 334 flights
- September 2025: 83.1% from 313 flights
- October 2025: 83.0% from 329 flights
- November 2025: 78.5% from 347 flights
- December 2025: 69.8% from 386 flights
- January 2026: 69.8% from 412 flights
- February 2026: 78.4% from 411 flights
- March 2026: 64.6% from 497 flights
- April 2026: 73.7% from 401 flights
- May 2026: 78.5% from 352 flights
- June 2026: 67.5% from 330 flights
- July 2026: 70.5% from 340 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.0% against 79.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.4 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 13,646 ORD → MIA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed