Route profile
MCO→SJU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to San Juan, 1,189 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 31% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 19,406 flights. How this is calculated
MCO → SJU arrives on time 73.7% of the time; the return trip, SJU → MCO, arrives on time 77.0% of the time, a 3.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MCO → SJU spends 23.2 minutes on the ground on a 1,189-mile trip: 17.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 6.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at SJU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 94% of 4,023 comparable routes.
92.2% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 59.7% for 6–9 PM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
Why MCO → SJU flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → SJU cancelled 181 of 19,406 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 107. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 48.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 221 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 181 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
88 cancellations, 48.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
65 cancellations, 35.9% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
27 cancellations, 14.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
1 cancellation, 0.6% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
181 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → SJU; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
56 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 19,406 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at SJU after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 26% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.93% of the time and diverts 0.14% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 19,197 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 56 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 19,406 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → SJU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.2% of the time, against 59.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 32.5 percentage points.
By day and hour
On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MCO).
Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 12.1 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.1 points.
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On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time
- 40–49
- 50–59
- 60–69
- 70–79
- 80–89
- 90–99
- Fewer than 120 flights, not scored
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.
No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 5 AM (3 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.
View as tableHide table
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 AM–6 AM | 90.7% on time154 flights | 110 flights, too few to score | 103 flights, too few to score | 91.1% on time159 flights | 95.6% on time161 flights | 92.1% on time142 flights | 93.6% on time174 flights |
| 6 AM–7 AM | 93.9% on time265 flights | 92.9% on time215 flights | 92.8% on time228 flights | 90.7% on time261 flights | 93.1% on time261 flights | 91.2% on time255 flights | 92.9% on time268 flights |
| 7 AM–8 AM | 91.4% on time178 flights | 93.9% on time181 flights | 89.7% on time177 flights | 92.9% on time185 flights | 89.9% on time180 flights | 92.8% on time154 flights | 88.7% on time143 flights |
| 8 AM–9 AM | 93 flights, too few to score | 92.5% on time120 flights | 112 flights, too few to score | 85 flights, too few to score | 103 flights, too few to score | 92.8% on time139 flights | 74 flights, too few to score |
| 9 AM–10 AM | 103 flights, too few to score | 98 flights, too few to score | 81 flights, too few to score | 108 flights, too few to score | 104 flights, too few to score | 79.2% on time127 flights | 77.6% on time157 flights |
| 10 AM–11 AM | 81.7% on time177 flights | 71.7% on time146 flights | 81.8% on time149 flights | 78.7% on time172 flights | 78.8% on time187 flights | 71.7% on time184 flights | 73.1% on time182 flights |
| 11 AM–12 PM | 65.6% on time124 flights | 82.9% on time171 flights | 82.0% on time140 flights | 75.4% on time140 flights | 67.5% on time120 flights | 59.6% on time148 flights | 72.2% on time144 flights |
| 12 PM–1 PM | 78.6% on time132 flights | 92 flights, too few to score | 82 flights, too few to score | 75.2% on time160 flights | 71.5% on time138 flights | 63.3% on time150 flights | 69.9% on time138 flights |
| 1 PM–2 PM | 73.9% on time138 flights | 111 flights, too few to score | 82.2% on time135 flights | 77.0% on time138 flights | 74.7% on time151 flights | 114 flights, too few to score | 70.3% on time166 flights |
| 2 PM–3 PM | 107 flights, too few to score | 77.8% on time161 flights | 82.3% on time150 flights | 99 flights, too few to score | 100 flights, too few to score | 70.7% on time140 flights | 97 flights, too few to score |
| 3 PM–4 PM | 106 flights, too few to score | 81 flights, too few to score | 114 flights, too few to score | 93 flights, too few to score | 113 flights, too few to score | 62.2% on time136 flights | 73 flights, too few to score |
| 4 PM–5 PM | 92 flights, too few to score | 79 flights, too few to score | 70 flights, too few to score | 89 flights, too few to score | 97 flights, too few to score | 110 flights, too few to score | 98 flights, too few to score |
| 5 PM–6 PM | 64.1% on time186 flights | 75.8% on time162 flights | 73.6% on time160 flights | 65.3% on time200 flights | 68.1% on time188 flights | 65.1% on time127 flights | 63.3% on time190 flights |
| 6 PM–7 PM | 57.8% on time139 flights | 65.3% on time150 flights | 63.3% on time151 flights | 57.3% on time131 flights | 62.2% on time127 flights | 63.2% on time137 flights | 48.2% on time137 flights |
| 7 PM–8 PM | 115 flights, too few to score | 91 flights, too few to score | 88 flights, too few to score | 96 flights, too few to score | 114 flights, too few to score | 57.0% on time123 flights | 61.5% on time121 flights |
| 8 PM–9 PM | 57.1% on time175 flights | 71.6% on time162 flights | 69.7% on time168 flights | 59.6% on time191 flights | 57.1% on time173 flights | 53.6% on time153 flights | 42.4% on time180 flights |
| 9 PM–10 PM | 57.6% on time192 flights | 61.6% on time126 flights | 60.3% on time122 flights | 53.2% on time156 flights | 55.0% on time193 flights | 59.6% on time138 flights | 58.7% on time138 flights |
| 10 PM–11 PM | 60.2% on time128 flights | 78 flights, too few to score | 71.2% on time126 flights | 55.1% on time148 flights | 54.9% on time144 flights | 59.1% on time132 flights | 51.6% on time193 flights |
| 11 PM–12 AM | 66.4% on time226 flights | 74.7% on time184 flights | 80.5% on time210 flights | 69.4% on time234 flights | 71.1% on time233 flights | 71.2% on time229 flights | 69.5% on time246 flights |
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 92.6% on time from 1,003 flights
- 6 AM: 92.5% on time from 1,753 flights
- 7 AM: 91.4% on time from 1,198 flights
- 8 AM: 92.4% on time from 726 flights
- 9 AM: 78.9% on time from 778 flights
- 10 AM: 76.8% on time from 1,197 flights
- 11 AM: 72.6% on time from 987 flights
- 12 PM: 72.3% on time from 892 flights
- 1 PM: 74.9% on time from 953 flights
- 2 PM: 74.9% on time from 854 flights
- 3 PM: 68.3% on time from 716 flights
- 4 PM: 63.3% on time from 635 flights
- 5 PM: 67.7% on time from 1,213 flights
- 6 PM: 59.7% on time from 972 flights
- 7 PM: 61.5% on time from 748 flights
- 8 PM: 58.6% on time from 1,202 flights
- 9 PM: 57.7% on time from 1,065 flights
- 10 PM: 58.3% on time from 949 flights
- 11 PM: 71.6% on time from 1,562 flights
Why MCO → SJU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → SJU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → SJU, at 42.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 92.2% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 59.7%.
How this route holds up in bad weather
July 2023 – July 2026
The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 3.2 times the normal rate at MCO against barely any change at SJU. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MCO 4.0% against 1.3%, SJU 1.5% against 1.4%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.
Bad weather and normal hours at the airports
Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026| Departures from | MCO | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Cancelled in bad weather | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| Cancelled in normal hours | 1.3% | 1.4% |
| Arrived on time, bad weather | 54.1% | 69.5% |
| Arrived on time, normal hours | 76.3% | 76.4% |
| Departures in bad weather | 33,297 | 2,333 |
Of the carriers on this route, Southwest Airlines (3.3% cancelled against 4.4% for the other carriers at MCO) cancelled the fewest departures from MCO in bad weather and Spirit Airlines (5.7% cancelled against 3.9% for the other carriers at MCO) the most.
This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO
All departures from MCO| Airline | Bad-weather departures | Cancelled | Other carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 9,331 | 3.3%below the others | 4.4% |
| Frontier Airlines | 3,840 | 4.7%above the others | 3.9% |
| JetBlue | 3,744 | 4.6%above the others | 3.8% |
| Spirit Airlines | 4,014 | 5.7%above the others | 3.9% |
These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MCO and SJU, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MCO on every route.
Weather source and limits. In full: MCO (airlines), SJU, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JetBlue | 6,372 | 75.0% | 1.13% | -4 min | 9.9% |
| Southwest Airlines | 6,236 | 75.1% | 0.48% | -1 min | 6.7% |
| Frontier Airlines | 3,984 | 72.9% | 1.31% | -4 min | 10.1% |
| Spirit Airlines | 2,814 | 69.0% | 0.96% | 0 min | 12.5% |
JetBlue flew 32.8% of the 19,406 flights listed.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 6.1 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
B61233 (5:01 AM) arrived on time 91.8% of the time, 20.4 points more often than B62133 (6:15 AM) at 71.4%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 72.7%
- Feb: 77.4%
- Mar: 72.7%
- Apr: 79.0%
- May: 77.2%
- Jun: 73.5%
- Jul: 63.8%
- Aug: 64.7%
- Sep: 77.5%
- Oct: 80.9%
- Nov: 81.9%
- Dec: 72.8%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 18.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 44.0% from 641 flights
- August 2023: 54.8% from 602 flights
- September 2023: 66.0% from 460 flights
- October 2023: 78.5% from 461 flights
- November 2023: 78.8% from 525 flights
- December 2023: 69.1% from 571 flights
- January 2024: 70.4% from 520 flights
- February 2024: 77.9% from 429 flights
- March 2024: 69.8% from 533 flights
- April 2024: 79.3% from 515 flights
- May 2024: 74.5% from 558 flights
- June 2024: 71.1% from 599 flights
- July 2024: 70.3% from 624 flights
- August 2024: 75.2% from 506 flights
- September 2024: 85.2% from 406 flights
- October 2024: 87.1% from 486 flights
- November 2024: 88.0% from 528 flights
- December 2024: 79.6% from 604 flights
- January 2025: 78.6% from 527 flights
- February 2025: 82.2% from 456 flights
- March 2025: 81.9% from 571 flights
- April 2025: 83.4% from 474 flights
- May 2025: 77.8% from 524 flights
- June 2025: 73.5% from 587 flights
- July 2025: 70.3% from 623 flights
- August 2025: 65.7% from 525 flights
- September 2025: 82.6% from 425 flights
- October 2025: 77.3% from 446 flights
- November 2025: 78.7% from 489 flights
- December 2025: 69.2% from 535 flights
- January 2026: 68.9% from 506 flights
- February 2026: 71.7% from 429 flights
- March 2026: 65.3% from 517 flights
- April 2026: 74.3% from 479 flights
- May 2026: 79.7% from 476 flights
- June 2026: 75.8% from 604 flights
- July 2026: 70.6% from 645 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 73.0% against 79.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 6.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 19,406 MCO → SJU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed