MCO → DCA Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Destination · DCANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:52 UTC

Washington airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

46/ 100Fair

Better than 10% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 14,634 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

72.4%

10,345 of 14,287

Cancellation rate

1.84%

269 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-4 min

Average 15.9 min

Severe delays

11.6%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

83 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

14,634

4 carriers

MCO → DCA arrives on time 72.4% of the time; the return trip, DCA → MCO, arrives on time 77.1% of the time, a 4.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

MCO → DCA spends 26.4 minutes on the ground on a 759-mile trip: 20.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 93% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth run 74 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why MCO → DCA flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MCO → DCA cancelled 269 of 14,634 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 54. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 62.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 87 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather62.5%

Air traffic19.3%

Airline18.2%

Security0.0%

Of 269 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 87

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

168 cancellations, 62.5% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 281

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

52 cancellations, 19.3% of the total.

The airline1 in 299

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

49 cancellations, 18.2% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

269 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → DCA; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

70 min late

against a median of 4 min early

Arrived an hour or more late11.6%

Typical delay when late83 min

Cancelled1.84%

Landed somewhere else0.53%

MCO → DCA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 74 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 14,634 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at DCA after arriving from MCO.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MCO → DCA arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	43%	Likely to miss
45 min	27%	High risk
60 min	19%	High risk
90 min	11%	Some risk
120 min	7.6%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.84% of the time and diverts 0.53% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 14,287 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 70 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 14,634 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MCO → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.0% of the time, against 60.7% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 29.3 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MCO).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 11.1 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.5 points.

On-time arrival rate for MCO to DCA by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 9 PM (512 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MCO to DCA. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	98 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	70 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	94.0% on time153 flights	100 flights, too few to score
7 AM–8 AM	81.4% on time133 flights	88.4% on time141 flights	92.7% on time138 flights	89.0% on time129 flights	91.5% on time131 flights	94.6% on time150 flights	89.5% on time144 flights
8 AM–9 AM	108 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	103 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score	111 flights, too few to score
9 AM–10 AM	81.5% on time126 flights	100 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	83.5% on time128 flights	79.4% on time131 flights	105 flights, too few to score	90.8% on time120 flights
10 AM–11 AM	82.7% on time192 flights	87.8% on time179 flights	80.8% on time176 flights	82.3% on time193 flights	76.6% on time188 flights	79.4% on time160 flights	80.1% on time167 flights
11 AM–12 PM	78.0% on time176 flights	85.4% on time172 flights	81.9% on time170 flights	76.2% on time169 flights	77.3% on time172 flights	74.3% on time223 flights	78.8% on time182 flights
12 PM–1 PM	82 flights, too few to score	88 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	84 flights, too few to score	85 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	98 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	74.0% on time130 flights	106 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score	59.8% on time136 flights	62.6% on time132 flights	103 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	60.3% on time195 flights	72.9% on time202 flights	69.0% on time204 flights	65.0% on time187 flights	60.0% on time189 flights	69.8% on time176 flights	58.9% on time195 flights
3 PM–4 PM	71.8% on time161 flights	76.2% on time152 flights	70.9% on time156 flights	67.1% on time152 flights	60.5% on time160 flights	74.1% on time148 flights	62.7% on time158 flights
4 PM–5 PM	86 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	90 flights, too few to score	108 flights, too few to score	96 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	35 flights, too few to score	45 flights, too few to score	47 flights, too few to score	35 flights, too few to score	35 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	34 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	62.3% on time148 flights	66.7% on time124 flights	65.5% on time121 flights	58.5% on time146 flights	60.8% on time145 flights	68.0% on time210 flights	57.0% on time132 flights
7 PM–8 PM	63.5% on time202 flights	69.2% on time212 flights	69.7% on time207 flights	67.7% on time193 flights	59.1% on time201 flights	74.2% on time190 flights	54.3% on time216 flights
8 PM–9 PM	62.2% on time170 flights	66.9% on time178 flights	59.9% on time182 flights	60.5% on time169 flights	57.6% on time174 flights	112 flights, too few to score	54.1% on time167 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM90.0%

9 AM–12 PM81.3%

12–3 PM67.4%

3–6 PM62.2%

6–9 PM63.4%

9 PM–5 AM60.7%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why MCO → DCA runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft43.8%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline26.5%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control23.2%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather6.3%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.3%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → DCA, at 43.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.0% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 60.7%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of MCO to DCA: 3.2 times the normal rate at MCO and 4.2 times at DCA. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MCO 4.0% against 1.3%, DCA 9.3% against 2.2%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MCO and DCA in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MCO	DCA
Cancelled in bad weather	4.0%	9.3%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.3%	2.2%
Arrived on time, bad weather	54.1%	63.5%
Arrived on time, normal hours	76.3%	78.3%
Departures in bad weather	33,297	41,449

Of the carriers on this route, Southwest Airlines (3.3% cancelled against 4.4% for the other carriers at MCO) cancelled the fewest departures from MCO in bad weather and JetBlue (4.6% cancelled against 3.8% for the other carriers at MCO) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

All departures from MCO

Cancellation rates in bad weather at MCO for the airlines that fly MCO to DCA, against the other carriers at MCO in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	9,331	3.3%below the others	4.4%
Delta Air Lines	4,556	3.3%below the others	4.3%
American Airlines	4,024	4.6%above the others	3.9%
JetBlue	3,744	4.6%above the others	3.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MCO and DCA, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MCO on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: MCO (airlines), DCA, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	5,841	73.5%	2.00%	-4 min	11.8%
JetBlue	3,592	70.8%	1.67%	-4 min	12.4%
Southwest Airlines	3,304	70.7%	1.33%	0 min	10.3%
Delta Air Lines	1,881	74.9%	2.55%	-7 min	11.7%

American Airlines flew 40.0% of the 14,618 flights listed. Delta Air Lines cancelled 2.55% of its flights here against 1.33% for Southwest Airlines.

Delta Air Lines arrived on time 4.2 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.

Other ways to fly Orlando to Washington

Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.

Other ways to fly Orlando to Washington
Route	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Score
MCO→BWI Orlando to Baltimore	15,856	75.8%	1.96%	-4 min	58
MCO→DCA this route Orlando to Washington	14,634	72.4%	1.84%	-4 min	46

MCO → BWI is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 75.8% on time, against 72.4% for MCO → DCA.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
B62324 JetBlue	10:00 AM	1,032	66.2%
B62424 JetBlue	3:40 PM	900	62.1%
B62024 JetBlue	6:30 AM	830	86.9%
DL2729 Delta Air Lines	7:50 PM	636	63.8%
AA2745 American Airlines	7:00 AM	627	90.4%

AA2745 (7:00 AM) arrived on time 90.4% of the time, 28.3 points more often than B62424 (3:40 PM) at 62.1%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon70.4%

Tue77.9%

Wed74.8%

Thu71.0%

Fri68.8%

Sat76.1%

Sun68.1%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 9.8 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 23.8 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 69.4% against 71.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.3 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 14,634 MCO → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MCO airport DCA airport Return direction DCA → MCO

MCO→DCA

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why MCO → DCA flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MCO → DCA runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

Airlines on this route

Other ways to fly Orlando to Washington

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology