DCA → MCO Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · DCANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:52 UTC

Washington airport profile →

Destination · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

54/ 100Fair

Better than 21% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 14,633 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

77.1%

11,007 of 14,272

Cancellation rate

1.97%

288 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-7 min

Average 10.8 min

Severe delays

10.0%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

86 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

14,633

4 carriers

DCA → MCO arrives on time 77.1% of the time; the return trip, MCO → DCA, arrives on time 72.4% of the time, a 4.7-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

DCA → MCO spends 30.6 minutes on the ground on a 759-mile trip: 19.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 11.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why DCA → MCO flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

DCA → MCO cancelled 288 of 14,633 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 51. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 62.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 81 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather62.5%

Airline20.1%

Air traffic17.4%

Security0.0%

Of 288 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 81

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

180 cancellations, 62.5% of the total.

The airline1 in 252

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

58 cancellations, 20.1% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 293

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

50 cancellations, 17.4% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

288 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → MCO; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

59 min late

against a median of 7 min early

Arrived an hour or more late10.0%

Typical delay when late86 min

Cancelled1.97%

Landed somewhere else0.50%

DCA → MCO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 7 min early, but the worst tenth are 66 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 14,633 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MCO after arriving from DCA.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, DCA → MCO arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	37%	Likely to miss
45 min	22%	High risk
60 min	16%	High risk
90 min	9.8%	Some risk
120 min	6.7%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.97% of the time and diverts 0.50% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 14,272 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 59 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 14,633 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

DCA → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.7% of the time, against 62.2% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 24.5 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (DCA).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.6 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.8 points.

On-time arrival rate for DCA to MCO by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 7 PM (1,024 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for DCA to MCO. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	91.8% on time440 flights	90.6% on time447 flights	90.5% on time442 flights	85.5% on time437 flights	86.1% on time440 flights	91.3% on time347 flights	91.2% on time372 flights
7 AM–8 AM	97 flights, too few to score	94 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score	96 flights, too few to score	86.8% on time171 flights	89.0% on time161 flights
8 AM–9 AM	80.3% on time200 flights	86.3% on time186 flights	79.4% on time194 flights	77.6% on time199 flights	83.9% on time196 flights	79.9% on time207 flights	78.5% on time199 flights
9 AM–10 AM	59 flights, too few to score	46 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	58 flights, too few to score	58 flights, too few to score	93 flights, too few to score	69 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	116 flights, too few to score	111 flights, too few to score	104 flights, too few to score	86.7% on time122 flights	116 flights, too few to score	86.5% on time127 flights	113 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	78.3% on time157 flights	78.7% on time151 flights	79.6% on time150 flights	75.3% on time155 flights	74.2% on time155 flights	79.0% on time204 flights	73.4% on time147 flights
12 PM–1 PM	74.5% on time145 flights	84.6% on time130 flights	78.2% on time136 flights	75.4% on time145 flights	73.8% on time147 flights	83.5% on time133 flights	77.1% on time148 flights
1 PM–2 PM	71.5% on time175 flights	76.4% on time177 flights	69.8% on time176 flights	68.3% on time173 flights	76.0% on time171 flights	85 flights, too few to score	67.8% on time179 flights
2 PM–3 PM	102 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	68.4% on time138 flights	89 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	70.3% on time122 flights	112 flights, too few to score	78.8% on time120 flights	115 flights, too few to score	71.2% on time125 flights	79.0% on time125 flights	67.7% on time133 flights
4 PM–5 PM	37 flights, too few to score	39 flights, too few to score	48 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score	37 flights, too few to score	78 flights, too few to score	34 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	69.1% on time206 flights	75.0% on time210 flights	66.5% on time210 flights	55.6% on time202 flights	64.1% on time205 flights	63.3% on time197 flights	57.8% on time183 flights
6 PM–7 PM	67.8% on time120 flights	73 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	111 flights, too few to score	47.1% on time121 flights	113 flights, too few to score	43.0% on time126 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM86.7%

9 AM–12 PM80.9%

12–3 PM74.4%

3–6 PM67.7%

6–9 PM62.2%

9 PM–5 AM—

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.

Why DCA → MCO runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft42.6%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline29.4%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control25.0%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather2.9%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on DCA → MCO, at 42.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 86.7% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.2%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of DCA to MCO: 4.2 times the normal rate at DCA and 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: DCA 9.3% against 2.2%, MCO 4.0% against 1.3%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from DCA and MCO in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	DCA	MCO
Cancelled in bad weather	9.3%	4.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	2.2%	1.3%
Arrived on time, bad weather	63.5%	54.1%
Arrived on time, normal hours	78.3%	76.3%
Departures in bad weather	41,449	33,297

Delta Air Lines (5.3% cancelled against 10.0% for the other carriers at DCA), Southwest Airlines (6.0% cancelled against 10.0% for the other carriers at DCA), American Airlines (6.4% cancelled against 9.5% for the other carriers at DCA) and JetBlue (6.1% cancelled against 8.8% for the other carriers at DCA) cancelled fewer departures from DCA in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DCA

All departures from DCA

Cancellation rates in bad weather at DCA for the airlines that fly DCA to MCO, against the other carriers at DCA in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Delta Air Lines	2,726	5.3%below the others	10.0%
Southwest Airlines	4,730	6.0%below the others	10.0%
American Airlines	8,236	6.4%below the others	9.5%
JetBlue	2,304	6.1%below the others	8.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from DCA and MCO, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from DCA on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: DCA (airlines), MCO, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	5,840	79.1%	2.02%	-9 min	9.0%
JetBlue	3,593	75.1%	2.03%	-7 min	12.4%
Southwest Airlines	3,303	75.1%	1.48%	-4 min	9.7%
Delta Air Lines	1,882	78.6%	2.55%	-7 min	8.8%

American Airlines flew 40.0% of the 14,618 flights listed. Delta Air Lines cancelled 2.55% of its flights here against 1.48% for Southwest Airlines.

American Airlines arrived on time 4.0 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.

Other ways to fly Washington to Orlando

Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.

Other ways to fly Washington to Orlando
Route	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Score
BWI→MCO Baltimore to Orlando	15,894	74.8%	1.98%	-4 min	54
DCA→MCO this route Washington to Orlando	14,633	77.1%	1.97%	-7 min	54

Flying to MCO from the Washington area? Compare DCA, BWI, IAD for MCO, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
B62423 JetBlue	7:00 AM	1,070	82.0%
B62523 JetBlue	8:00 PM	930	63.5%
B61923 JetBlue	12:00 PM	804	77.6%
DL1003 Delta Air Lines	6:59 AM	755	81.7%
AA592 American Airlines	6:30 AM	624	91.3%

AA592 (6:30 AM) arrived on time 91.3% of the time, 27.8 points more often than B62523 (8:00 PM) at 63.5%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon78.1%

Tue82.1%

Wed78.3%

Thu74.1%

Fri75.0%

Sat78.9%

Sun73.6%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 8.5 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 16.1 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.8% against 77.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.1 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 14,633 DCA → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

DCA airport MCO airport Return direction MCO → DCA

DCA→MCO

Right now

Route reliability

Why DCA → MCO flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why DCA → MCO runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at DCA

Airlines on this route

Other ways to fly Washington to Orlando

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology