EWR → MCO Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · EWRNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Newark airport profile →

Destination · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

51/ 100Fair

Better than 16% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 20,506 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

76.4%

15,197 of 19,888

Cancellation rate

2.70%

553 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-9 min

Average 8.4 min

Severe delays

10.1%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

81 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

20,506

3 carriers

EWR → MCO arrives on time 76.4% of the time; the return trip, MCO → EWR, arrives on time 74.1% of the time, a 2.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

EWR → MCO spends 34.1 minutes on the ground on a 937-mile trip: 23.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at EWR and 10.6 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why EWR → MCO flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

EWR → MCO cancelled 553 of 20,506 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 37. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 49.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 75 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather49.5%

Air traffic27.5%

Airline23.0%

Security0.0%

Of 553 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 75

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

274 cancellations, 49.5% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 135

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

152 cancellations, 27.5% of the total.

The airline1 in 161

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

127 cancellations, 23.0% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

553 coded cancellations were recorded on EWR → MCO; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

60 min late

against a median of 9 min early

Arrived an hour or more late10.1%

Typical delay when late81 min

Cancelled2.70%

Landed somewhere else0.32%

EWR → MCO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 9 min early, but the worst tenth are 69 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 20,506 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MCO after arriving from EWR.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, EWR → MCO arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	36%	Likely to miss
45 min	23%	High risk
60 min	17%	High risk
90 min	10.0%	Some risk
120 min	6.6%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.70% of the time and diverts 0.32% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 19,888 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 60 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 20,506 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

EWR → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.3% of the time, against 65.6% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 23.7 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (EWR).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.1 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.3 points.

On-time arrival rate for EWR to MCO by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 9 PM (757 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for EWR to MCO. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	113 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	69 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	92.1% on time128 flights	109 flights, too few to score
6 AM–7 AM	92.2% on time294 flights	91.0% on time274 flights	93.1% on time296 flights	94.1% on time292 flights	92.2% on time297 flights	90.8% on time264 flights	91.9% on time290 flights
7 AM–8 AM	81.3% on time192 flights	89.6% on time169 flights	90.9% on time180 flights	88.2% on time199 flights	84.0% on time197 flights	84.6% on time192 flights	89.8% on time189 flights
8 AM–9 AM	111 flights, too few to score	89.1% on time140 flights	88.5% on time132 flights	113 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score
9 AM–10 AM	78.6% on time212 flights	81.1% on time217 flights	82.1% on time222 flights	77.9% on time202 flights	79.3% on time203 flights	76.5% on time218 flights	80.3% on time204 flights
10 AM–11 AM	82.0% on time215 flights	79.6% on time230 flights	84.5% on time226 flights	77.3% on time211 flights	79.6% on time208 flights	75.8% on time224 flights	81.3% on time216 flights
11 AM–12 PM	84.4% on time214 flights	82.8% on time241 flights	83.3% on time248 flights	80.6% on time221 flights	78.1% on time219 flights	73.9% on time239 flights	74.1% on time212 flights
12 PM–1 PM	76 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	67 flights, too few to score	71 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	76.4% on time214 flights	79.2% on time197 flights	77.7% on time187 flights	75.1% on time209 flights	78.9% on time196 flights	81.1% on time178 flights	71.4% on time206 flights
2 PM–3 PM	69.4% on time217 flights	76.4% on time244 flights	76.6% on time240 flights	70.2% on time244 flights	71.0% on time225 flights	69.8% on time243 flights	69.1% on time248 flights
3 PM–4 PM	61.3% on time197 flights	77.0% on time222 flights	73.1% on time221 flights	66.5% on time202 flights	68.6% on time201 flights	67.9% on time199 flights	62.9% on time219 flights
4 PM–5 PM	68.6% on time227 flights	69.5% on time179 flights	68.9% on time168 flights	61.2% on time215 flights	67.3% on time226 flights	66.1% on time195 flights	64.1% on time225 flights
5 PM–6 PM	64.9% on time180 flights	73.9% on time185 flights	68.8% on time179 flights	64.1% on time187 flights	60.5% on time178 flights	68.9% on time170 flights	56.5% on time190 flights
6 PM–7 PM	59.0% on time166 flights	78.0% on time125 flights	65.9% on time141 flights	61.0% on time163 flights	66.7% on time163 flights	67.7% on time139 flights	61.7% on time131 flights
7 PM–8 PM	98 flights, too few to score	105 flights, too few to score	103 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	68.1% on time120 flights	113 flights, too few to score
8 PM–9 PM	116 flights, too few to score	108 flights, too few to score	67.5% on time120 flights	116 flights, too few to score	65.9% on time130 flights	111 flights, too few to score	113 flights, too few to score

By departure window

5–9 AM89.3%

9 AM–12 PM79.7%

12–3 PM75.0%

3–6 PM66.8%

6–9 PM66.4%

9 PM–5 AM65.6%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why EWR → MCO runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft38.3%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control31.3%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

The airline25.5%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Weather4.7%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.2%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for EWR → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on EWR → MCO, at 38.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.3% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 65.6%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of EWR to MCO: 3.3 times the normal rate at EWR and 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: EWR 6.9% against 2.1%, MCO 4.0% against 1.3%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from EWR and MCO in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	EWR	MCO
Cancelled in bad weather	6.9%	4.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	2.1%	1.3%
Arrived on time, bad weather	65.8%	54.1%
Arrived on time, normal hours	80.0%	76.3%
Departures in bad weather	51,613	33,297

Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (5.3% cancelled against 8.9% for the other carriers at EWR) cancelled the fewest departures from EWR in bad weather and Spirit Airlines (8.7% cancelled against 6.4% for the other carriers at EWR) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at EWR

All departures from EWR

Cancellation rates in bad weather at EWR for the airlines that fly EWR to MCO, against the other carriers at EWR in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	28,226	5.3%below the others	8.9%
JetBlue	2,326	6.6%about level	6.7%
Spirit Airlines	3,882	8.7%above the others	6.4%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from EWR and MCO, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from EWR on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: EWR (airlines), MCO, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
United Airlines	11,976	77.7%	2.28%	-9 min	9.1%
JetBlue	4,345	73.2%	2.92%	-6 min	11.8%
Spirit Airlines	4,030	75.8%	3.75%	-10 min	11.6%

United Airlines flew 58.8% of the 20,351 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 3.75% of its flights here against 2.28% for United Airlines.

United Airlines arrived on time 4.5 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.

Other ways to fly New York to Orlando

Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.

Other ways to fly New York to Orlando
Route	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Score
EWR→MCO this route Newark to Orlando	20,506	76.4%	2.70%	-9 min	51
LGA→MCO New York to Orlando	15,987	73.0%	2.85%	-7 min	43
JFK→MCO New York to Orlando	14,837	72.1%	2.39%	-5 min	44

EWR → MCO is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 76.4% on time, against 73.0% for LGA → MCO.

Flying to MCO from the New York area? Compare EWR, LGA, JFK for MCO, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
B6927 JetBlue	6:00 AM	1,025	86.7%
B6127 JetBlue	10:40 AM	939	77.5%
B61827 JetBlue	9:00 PM	799	63.2%
UA1213 United Airlines	2:30 PM	669	73.1%
UA1739 United Airlines	10:30 AM	664	78.8%
B61527 JetBlue	10:30 AM	637	69.3%

B6927 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 86.7% of the time, 23.5 points more often than B61827 (9:00 PM) at 63.2%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon75.2%

Tue80.6%

Wed79.0%

Thu75.3%

Fri75.9%

Sat75.7%

Sun73.3%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.3 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 19.1 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.4% against 76.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 20,506 EWR → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

EWR airport MCO airport Return direction MCO → EWR

EWR→MCO

Right now

Route reliability

Why EWR → MCO flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why EWR → MCO runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at EWR

Airlines on this route

Other ways to fly New York to Orlando

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology