FlyerIntel Research
Thanksgiving 2026 Flight Delays: Past Years
The Wednesday before Thanksgiving through the Sunday after, measured every year FlyerIntel has data for, as a guide to what the corridor has historically looked like heading into Thanksgiving 2026.
Published September 15, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – August 2026
Summary
Pooled across the 3 past Thanksgiving corridors (2023, 2024 and 2025), covered airports cancelled 0.94% of scheduled departures and posted 79.7% on time, against 1.52% and 78.0% on an ordinary day. Those years cannot predict what Thanksgiving 2026 itself will bring; they are the closest guide available before it arrives. On average, the corridor has run slightly more reliably than an ordinary day, 1.7 points better on time. That average hides real swings: 2023 was the most reliable of the three at 83.7% on time, while 2025 was the least, at 72.8% with a 2.64% cancellation rate. That is the kind of year-to-year variation a single pooled figure does not show.
Key findings
- Across 2023, 2024 and 2025, the Thanksgiving corridor cancelled 0.94% of scheduled departures and ran 79.7% on time, against an ordinary day's 1.52% and 78.0%: 1.7 points better on time, with a cancellation rate 0.59 points lower.
- The three corridors were not alike: 2023 posted 83.7% on time and a 0.07% cancellation rate, while 2025 fell to 72.8% on time and 2.64% cancelled, a 10.9-point swing between the best and worst Thanksgiving this data has recorded.
- Weather's share of coded Thanksgiving-corridor cancellations, 78.4%, is well above the 58.6% share on an ordinary day, consistent with the pattern FlyerIntel's holiday-travel-reliability report finds across all five major travel weeks.
- DTW (Detroit) shows the sharpest Thanksgiving-corridor drop of any covered airport: 67.5% against 79.8% on an ordinary day, a fall of 12.3 points. LAS (Las Vegas) improves the most, gaining 8.8 points.
- Among covered airlines, SkyWest Airlines shows the largest Thanksgiving-corridor decline (76.6% on time against 80.3% otherwise), while Alaska Airlines improves the most, to 83.3% against 78.0%.
What this report is, and is not
This is not a forecast. FlyerIntel has no way to know what will happen around Thanksgiving 2026, and nothing below should be read as a prediction about a specific flight on a specific day. What follows is how the identical travel corridor (the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through the Sunday after) performed in every Thanksgiving this dataset covers, 2023, 2024 and 2025, offered as the most concrete available guide to what the corridor has actually looked like in recent years. The same definitions, the same airports, and the same "ordinary day" comparison used in "The Holiday Travel Penalty Is Smaller Than It Looks" are used here; this report isolates Thanksgiving specifically and adds a year-by-year and airline-by-airline view that report does not.
On-time arrival rate, Thanksgiving corridor by year
Cancellation rate, Thanksgiving corridor by year
Roughest and smoothest Thanksgiving corridors, by airport
| Airport | City | Thanksgiving-corridor on time | Ordinary-day on time | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DTW | Detroit | 67.5% | 79.8% | -12.3 pts |
| MKE | Milwaukee | 70.9% | 80.9% | -10.0 pts |
| ORD | Chicago | 65.4% | 74.4% | -8.9 pts |
| MSP | Minneapolis | 72.5% | 81.3% | -8.8 pts |
| OMA | Omaha | 74.2% | 81.8% | -7.6 pts |
| LAS | Las Vegas | 86.4% | 77.6% | +8.8 pts |
| HOU | Houston | 86.5% | 78.8% | +7.8 pts |
| SFO | San Francisco | 85.7% | 78.3% | +7.4 pts |
| DAL | Dallas | 83.2% | 76.0% | +7.2 pts |
| ANC | Anchorage | 90.0% | 83.4% | +6.6 pts |
The five lowest and the five highest Thanksgiving-corridor differences among the 64 covered airports whose combined Thanksgiving-corridor flights clear the site’s standard time-bucket threshold of 120 flights. Figures describe flights departing this airport, judged on arrival at their destination. The full every-airport breakdown across all five major US travel weeks, not Thanksgiving alone, is in "The Holiday Travel Penalty Is Smaller Than It Looks."
Every covered airline, Thanksgiving corridor against an ordinary day
| Airline | Thanksgiving-corridor on time | Ordinary-day on time | Thanksgiving-corridor cancelled | Ordinary-day cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SkyWest Airlines | 76.6% | 80.3% | 2.39% | 1.18% |
| Envoy Air | 76.8% | 79.8% | 3.61% | 1.78% |
| Allegiant Air | 75.3% | 76.5% | 0.29% | 0.90% |
| Spirit Airlines | 74.4% | 75.5% | 0.74% | 2.11% |
| Endeavor Air | 84.1% | 84.8% | 0.00% | 2.58% |
| JetBlue | 72.2% | 72.1% | 1.69% | 2.33% |
| United Airlines | 79.9% | 79.5% | 0.92% | 1.23% |
| Delta Air Lines | 82.6% | 81.4% | 0.12% | 1.17% |
| Republic Airways | 83.2% | 82.0% | 1.75% | 3.41% |
| Frontier Airlines | 74.4% | 71.5% | 1.01% | 2.15% |
| PSA Airlines | 78.0% | 74.6% | 1.31% | 3.79% |
| American Airlines | 78.3% | 74.6% | 0.74% | 1.77% |
| Southwest Airlines | 81.8% | 77.4% | 0.59% | 0.89% |
| Hawaiian Airlines | 87.0% | 81.9% | 0.45% | 1.06% |
| Alaska Airlines | 83.3% | 78.0% | 0.56% | 1.27% |
Ranked from the lowest Thanksgiving-corridor difference to the highest. Shown for every covered airline whose Thanksgiving-corridor flights clear 120, the site’s time-bucket floor, used here rather than the higher full-profile threshold because this compares one travel corridor to an ordinary day, not an airline’s overall record.
Why the cancellations that do happen, happen
| Period | Weather | Carrier | National Airspace System | Security |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thanksgiving corridor | 78.4% | 17.2% | 4.4% | 0.00% |
| An ordinary day | 58.6% | 26.1% | 15.3% | 0.04% |
The cancellation reason is the single code the operating carrier files with the DOT. Shown only because both rows clear the site's 500-coded-cancellation floor for a published cause split.
Pages for what this report covers
Airports: Detroit (DTW) · Las Vegas (LAS) · Milwaukee (MKE) · Chicago (ORD) · Minneapolis (MSP) · Omaha (OMA) · Houston (HOU) · San Francisco (SFO) · Dallas (DAL) · Anchorage (ANC)
Airlines: Alaska Airlines · SkyWest Airlines · Envoy Air · Allegiant Air · Spirit Airlines · Endeavor Air
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 22,316,707 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through August 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. This report is a departures measure throughout: one record is one scheduled departure from one of the airports FlyerIntel covers, judged on-time by its arrival at its destination: the same basis as the "On-time arrivals" figure on that airport’s own profile page. The Thanksgiving corridor is computed, not hand-picked, using the exact window "The Holiday Travel Penalty Is Smaller Than It Looks" defines: the Wednesday through the Sunday around the fourth Thursday of November. A corridor is included only where it falls entirely inside the loaded period, which is why this report covers 3 occurrences (2023, 2024 and 2025) rather than an arbitrary number chosen for the report. "An ordinary day" is every scheduled departure outside all five holiday windows this site tracks (Thanksgiving, the Christmas run, Independence Day, Memorial Day weekend and Labor Day weekend), not merely outside Thanksgiving, so the baseline here is identical to the one "The Holiday Travel Penalty Is Smaller Than It Looks" reports rather than a different figure for what is meant to be the same comparison. The per-airport and per-airline tables include an entity only where its Thanksgiving-corridor flights meet the site's standard time-bucket threshold of 120 flights, a lower bar than the full-profile threshold used elsewhere on the site because this measures one travel corridor, not an overall record.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight. This report's title names 2026 because that is the Thanksgiving it is published ahead of, but every figure in it is historical: FlyerIntel's data covers 3 past Thanksgiving corridors (2023, 2024 and 2025), and Thanksgiving 2026 itself contributes no data here, because it has not happened yet. 3 corridors is a small number of years to generalize from. The spread between the best and the worst of them (10.9 points on time) is itself evidence that a single Thanksgiving can depart substantially from this average. As with every report on this site, past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight, and that applies with particular force to a report framed around a date that has not occurred: nothing here forecasts weather, staffing, or demand for Thanksgiving 2026, and none of it should be read as odds on any specific flight that week.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis