PHX → SEA Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · PHXNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Phoenix airport profile →

Destination · SEANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Seattle airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

80/ 100Strong

Better than 87% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 22,315 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

82.7%

18,316 of 22,151

Cancellation rate

0.58%

129 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-6 min

Average 1.3 min

Severe delays

4.3%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

55 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

22,315

7 carriers

PHX → SEA arrives on time 82.7% of the time; the return trip, SEA → PHX, arrives on time 79.4% of the time, a 3.3-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

PHX → SEA spends 28.5 minutes on the ground on a 1,107-mile trip: 16.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 11.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at SEA.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 98% of 5,368 comparable routes.

82.4% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 82.3% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.

Why PHX → SEA flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

PHX → SEA cancelled 129 of 22,315 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 173. The reason filed most often was the airline, 80.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 215 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Airline80.6%

Weather15.5%

Air traffic3.9%

Security0.0%

Of 129 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

The airline1 in 215

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

104 cancellations, 80.6% of the total.

Extreme weather1 in 1,116

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

20 cancellations, 15.5% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 4,463

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

5 cancellations, 3.9% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

129 coded cancellations were recorded on PHX → SEA; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

28 min late

against a median of 6 min early

Arrived an hour or more late4.3%

Typical delay when late55 min

Cancelled0.58%

Landed somewhere else0.16%

Percentiles over 22,315 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at SEA after arriving from PHX.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, PHX → SEA arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	35%	Likely to miss
45 min	17%	High risk
60 min	9.4%	Some risk
90 min	4.2%	Low risk
120 min	2.4%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.58% of the time and diverts 0.16% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 22,151 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 28 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 22,315 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

PHX → SEA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.3% of the time, against 69.1% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 19.2 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (PHX).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 6.1 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 1.4 points.

On-time arrival rate for PHX to SEA by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 10 PM (519 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for PHX to SEA. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	93.0% on time288 flights	93.9% on time266 flights	93.5% on time248 flights	95.5% on time270 flights	91.9% on time287 flights	95.1% on time310 flights	92.4% on time282 flights
7 AM–8 AM	83.0% on time326 flights	85.3% on time279 flights	85.9% on time292 flights	85.5% on time319 flights	86.5% on time321 flights	85.0% on time290 flights	87.8% on time315 flights
8 AM–9 AM	85.5% on time258 flights	86.3% on time227 flights	82.0% on time241 flights	87.2% on time257 flights	82.0% on time262 flights	84.5% on time234 flights	87.5% on time232 flights
9 AM–10 AM	87.6% on time129 flights	79.5% on time158 flights	84.0% on time163 flights	79.0% on time126 flights	119 flights, too few to score	86.8% on time138 flights	86.8% on time124 flights
10 AM–11 AM	85.3% on time138 flights	87.9% on time142 flights	84.1% on time132 flights	87.2% on time142 flights	88.7% on time141 flights	90.9% on time133 flights	84.2% on time133 flights
11 AM–12 PM	86.5% on time270 flights	88.6% on time271 flights	90.3% on time268 flights	86.4% on time275 flights	84.1% on time265 flights	87.2% on time243 flights	89.0% on time258 flights
12 PM–1 PM	84.4% on time144 flights	91.5% on time131 flights	87.7% on time130 flights	88.2% on time153 flights	81.7% on time145 flights	91.8% on time146 flights	92.9% on time127 flights
1 PM–2 PM	82.0% on time246 flights	79.8% on time244 flights	85.7% on time251 flights	78.5% on time256 flights	80.2% on time244 flights	80.2% on time229 flights	80.7% on time249 flights
2 PM–3 PM	82.7% on time204 flights	83.6% on time177 flights	84.8% on time179 flights	77.9% on time223 flights	82.3% on time219 flights	86.4% on time207 flights	88.6% on time204 flights
3 PM–4 PM	78.4% on time243 flights	81.2% on time234 flights	82.4% on time240 flights	77.6% on time238 flights	77.7% on time246 flights	79.6% on time236 flights	80.7% on time241 flights
4 PM–5 PM	75.4% on time142 flights	77.0% on time122 flights	75.6% on time135 flights	75.8% on time132 flights	72.7% on time153 flights	108 flights, too few to score	73.0% on time151 flights
5 PM–6 PM	74.9% on time255 flights	84.0% on time245 flights	77.8% on time241 flights	73.8% on time253 flights	77.8% on time250 flights	76.9% on time257 flights	70.0% on time251 flights
6 PM–7 PM	73.6% on time144 flights	75.2% on time122 flights	74.8% on time125 flights	70.4% on time136 flights	69.1% on time139 flights	91 flights, too few to score	69.6% on time138 flights
7 PM–8 PM	74.1% on time193 flights	85.6% on time181 flights	82.5% on time177 flights	80.4% on time190 flights	76.4% on time183 flights	76.8% on time196 flights	71.6% on time198 flights
8 PM–9 PM	78.7% on time136 flights	80.5% on time133 flights	87.6% on time145 flights	78.6% on time131 flights	81.6% on time126 flights	67 flights, too few to score	97 flights, too few to score
9 PM–10 PM	62.2% on time120 flights	64 flights, too few to score	67 flights, too few to score	68.1% on time121 flights	67.7% on time127 flights	71 flights, too few to score	74.2% on time125 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM88.3%

9 AM–12 PM86.4%

12–3 PM83.6%

3–6 PM77.5%

6–9 PM77.3%

9 PM–5 AM69.1%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why PHX → SEA runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft43.8%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline38.2%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control15.3%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather2.5%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.2%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → SEA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHX → SEA, at 43.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 88.3% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 69.1%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 3.9 times the normal rate at PHX against 1.9 times at SEA. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: PHX 2.5% against 0.6%, SEA 1.5% against 0.8%. Flights that did leave PHX in bad weather arrived on time 53.7% of the time, against 80.6% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from PHX and SEA in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	PHX	SEA
Cancelled in bad weather	2.5%	1.5%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.6%	0.8%
Arrived on time, bad weather	53.7%	75.4%
Arrived on time, normal hours	80.6%	79.3%
Departures in bad weather	6,215	43,416

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from PHX and SEA, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad.

Weather source and limits. In full: PHX, SEA, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Alaska Airlines	9,134	82.9%	0.91%	-5 min	3.7%
Delta Air Lines	5,416	90.3%	0.57%	-15 min	3.8%
Southwest Airlines	3,098	69.2%	0.26%	2 min	6.0%
SkyWest Airlines	1,775	80.1%	0.23%	-3 min	5.7%
Envoy Air	1,455	85.5%	0.00%	-7 min	3.6%
Frontier Airlines	778	79.6%	0.26%	-8 min	7.4%
American Airlines	659	85.5%	0.15%	-8 min	4.4%

Alaska Airlines flew 40.9% of the 22,315 flights listed.

Delta Air Lines arrived on time 21.1 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
AS645 Alaska Airlines	8:00 AM	1,079	84.8%
AS637 Alaska Airlines	11:00 AM	993	87.6%
AS611 Alaska Airlines	6:00 AM	869	83.3%
DL2419 Delta Air Lines	12:05 PM	785	93.1%
AS603 Alaska Airlines	11:52 AM	760	87.8%
DL2444 Delta Air Lines	6:00 AM	747	94.6%

DL2444 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 94.6% of the time, 11.3 points more often than AS611 (6:00 AM) at 83.3%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon81.3%

Tue84.7%

Wed84.2%

Thu81.5%

Fri81.0%

Sat84.1%

Sun82.4%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 3.7 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

June is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 10.1 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.4% against 82.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 22,315 PHX → SEA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

PHX airport SEA airport Return direction SEA → PHX

PHX→SEA

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why PHX → SEA flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why PHX → SEA runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology