PHL → MCO Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · PHLNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:54 UTC

Philadelphia airport profile →

Destination · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

45/ 100Weak

Better than 9% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 17,467 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

72.7%

12,380 of 17,032

Cancellation rate

2.13%

372 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-6 min

Average 14.3 min

Severe delays

12.1%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

84 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

17,467

4 carriers

PHL → MCO arrives on time 72.7% of the time; the return trip, MCO → PHL, arrives on time 72.2% of the time.

PHL → MCO spends 33.7 minutes on the ground on an 861-mile trip: 20.3 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHL and 13.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 96% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth run 78 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why PHL → MCO flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

PHL → MCO cancelled 372 of 17,467 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 47. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 69.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 67 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather69.6%

Airline23.4%

Air traffic7.0%

Security0.0%

Of 372 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 67

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

259 cancellations, 69.6% of the total.

The airline1 in 201

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

87 cancellations, 23.4% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 672

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

26 cancellations, 7.0% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

372 coded cancellations were recorded on PHL → MCO; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

72 min late

against a median of 6 min early

Arrived an hour or more late12.1%

Typical delay when late84 min

Cancelled2.13%

Landed somewhere else0.36%

PHL → MCO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 78 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 17,467 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MCO after arriving from PHL.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, PHL → MCO arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	41%	Likely to miss
45 min	27%	High risk
60 min	19%	High risk
90 min	12%	Some risk
120 min	7.8%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.13% of the time and diverts 0.36% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 17,032 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 72 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 17,467 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

PHL → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.0% of the time, against 58.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.3 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (PHL).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 10.5 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.8 points.

On-time arrival rate for PHL to MCO by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 8 PM (1,586 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for PHL to MCO. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	84.1% on time173 flights	97 flights, too few to score	104 flights, too few to score	86.8% on time146 flights	90.1% on time166 flights	86.5% on time158 flights	81.8% on time144 flights
6 AM–7 AM	85.6% on time215 flights	92.6% on time205 flights	89.8% on time217 flights	91.2% on time218 flights	86.7% on time222 flights	82.1% on time258 flights	88.3% on time235 flights
7 AM–8 AM	87.1% on time127 flights	93.7% on time144 flights	90.6% on time130 flights	84.5% on time132 flights	104 flights, too few to score	85.2% on time143 flights	85.4% on time136 flights
8 AM–9 AM	79.8% on time258 flights	80.9% on time226 flights	83.3% on time232 flights	80.9% on time247 flights	76.5% on time249 flights	78.9% on time236 flights	81.3% on time253 flights
9 AM–10 AM	64 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	68 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score	63 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	78.5% on time134 flights	82.9% on time125 flights	83.1% on time126 flights	73.2% on time125 flights	77.3% on time146 flights	78.0% on time142 flights	84.9% on time155 flights
11 AM–12 PM	76.7% on time124 flights	81.2% on time140 flights	84.8% on time140 flights	73.1% on time136 flights	70.1% on time135 flights	74.7% on time183 flights	69.6% on time131 flights
12 PM–1 PM	106 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	72.7% on time134 flights	105 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	71.7% on time170 flights	70.2% on time145 flights	70.9% on time152 flights	69.9% on time178 flights	74.6% on time174 flights	75.4% on time125 flights	62.3% on time142 flights
2 PM–3 PM	73.2% on time154 flights	74.1% on time191 flights	78.3% on time174 flights	72.7% on time147 flights	68.8% on time160 flights	67.3% on time175 flights	64.8% on time150 flights
3 PM–4 PM	68.5% on time184 flights	75.4% on time186 flights	69.2% on time171 flights	64.5% on time176 flights	67.9% on time189 flights	63.5% on time193 flights	58.7% on time186 flights
4 PM–5 PM	57.1% on time131 flights	116 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score	59.0% on time123 flights	63.0% on time136 flights	54.0% on time124 flights	52.9% on time148 flights
5 PM–6 PM	51.2% on time136 flights	99 flights, too few to score	109 flights, too few to score	54.9% on time148 flights	56.1% on time127 flights	52.2% on time139 flights	52.2% on time144 flights
6 PM–7 PM	59.9% on time155 flights	99 flights, too few to score	111 flights, too few to score	58.9% on time158 flights	50.3% on time165 flights	56.4% on time142 flights	50.9% on time175 flights
7 PM–8 PM	52.6% on time203 flights	69.9% on time129 flights	67.4% on time146 flights	47.2% on time167 flights	53.2% on time193 flights	66.2% on time148 flights	50.3% on time184 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM85.0%

9 AM–12 PM78.1%

12–3 PM71.7%

3–6 PM62.2%

6–9 PM58.7%

9 PM–5 AM68.0%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why PHL → MCO runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft46.6%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline26.1%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control23.6%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather3.6%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHL → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHL → MCO, at 46.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 85.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 58.7%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of PHL to MCO: 4.3 times the normal rate at PHL and 3.2 times at MCO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: PHL 6.5% against 1.5%, MCO 4.0% against 1.3%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from PHL and MCO in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	PHL	MCO
Cancelled in bad weather	6.5%	4.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.5%	1.3%
Arrived on time, bad weather	64.3%	54.1%
Arrived on time, normal hours	78.2%	76.3%
Departures in bad weather	32,038	33,297

Southwest Airlines (2.8% cancelled against 6.4% for the other carriers at PHL) cancelled fewer departures from PHL in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at PHL

All departures from PHL

Cancellation rates in bad weather at PHL for the airlines that fly PHL to MCO, against the other carriers at PHL in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	1,682	2.8%below the others	6.4%
Spirit Airlines	1,352	5.1%about level	5.9%
American Airlines	14,281	6.4%about level	6.8%
Frontier Airlines	3,603	6.5%about level	6.2%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from PHL and MCO, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from PHL on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: PHL (airlines), MCO, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	7,844	74.0%	1.86%	-6 min	11.0%
Frontier Airlines	5,319	69.4%	2.67%	-5 min	15.7%
Spirit Airlines	2,549	74.6%	2.79%	-7 min	10.6%
Southwest Airlines	1,755	73.9%	0.74%	-4 min	8.4%

American Airlines flew 44.9% of the 17,467 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 2.79% of its flights here against 0.74% for Southwest Airlines.

Spirit Airlines arrived on time 5.2 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
F92505 Frontier Airlines	3:33 PM	851	65.3%
F91807 Frontier Airlines	8:00 AM	819	75.3%
AA2531 American Airlines	7:06 PM	692	62.5%
F92415 Frontier Airlines	5:05 AM	625	76.3%

F92415 (5:05 AM) arrived on time 76.3% of the time, 13.8 points more often than AA2531 (7:06 PM) at 62.5%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon71.2%

Tue79.8%

Wed78.0%

Thu71.2%

Fri70.6%

Sat71.4%

Sun68.2%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.6 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 23.8 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 72.4% against 73.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 17,467 PHL → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

PHL airport MCO airport Return direction MCO → PHL

PHL→MCO

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why PHL → MCO flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why PHL → MCO runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at PHL

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology