MCO → PHL Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MCONo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Orlando airport profile →

Destination · PHLNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:54 UTC

Philadelphia airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

43/ 100Weak

Better than 7% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 17,463 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

72.2%

12,345 of 17,091

Cancellation rate

2.01%

351 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-3 min

Average 17.5 min

Severe delays

12.2%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

87 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

17,463

4 carriers

MCO → PHL arrives on time 72.2% of the time; the return trip, PHL → MCO, arrives on time 72.7% of the time.

MCO → PHL spends 29.4 minutes on the ground on an 861-mile trip: 20.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 9.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHL.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route's worst arrivals run unusually far past its typical one, a bigger gap than 95% of 4,598 comparable routes.

A typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth run 77 minutes worse than that.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,598 in the comparison.

Why MCO → PHL flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MCO → PHL cancelled 351 of 17,463 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 50. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 72.4% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 69 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather72.4%

Airline21.1%

Air traffic6.6%

Security0.0%

Of 351 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 69

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

254 cancellations, 72.4% of the total.

The airline1 in 236

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

74 cancellations, 21.1% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 759

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

23 cancellations, 6.6% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

351 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → PHL; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

74 min late

against a median of 3 min early

Arrived an hour or more late12.2%

Typical delay when late87 min

Cancelled2.01%

Landed somewhere else0.12%

MCO → PHL has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 3 min early, but the worst tenth are 77 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 17,463 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at PHL after arriving from MCO.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MCO → PHL arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	43%	Likely to miss
45 min	27%	High risk
60 min	20%	High risk
90 min	12%	Some risk
120 min	8.0%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.01% of the time and diverts 0.12% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 17,091 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 74 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 17,463 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MCO → PHL flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.8% of the time, against 58.5% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 31.3 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MCO).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 12.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.5 points.

On-time arrival rate for MCO to PHL by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

40–49
50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 8 PM (1,554 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MCO to PHL. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	88.9% on time131 flights	65 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score	91.7% on time124 flights	108 flights, too few to score	83 flights, too few to score	90.4% on time139 flights
6 AM–7 AM	114 flights, too few to score	92.4% on time121 flights	108 flights, too few to score	93.2% on time120 flights	91.8% on time138 flights	96.0% on time154 flights	92.3% on time120 flights
7 AM–8 AM	87.8% on time170 flights	85.4% on time153 flights	89.8% on time149 flights	86.0% on time165 flights	90.7% on time175 flights	92.8% on time208 flights	89.7% on time179 flights
8 AM–9 AM	83.1% on time127 flights	83 flights, too few to score	95 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	87.1% on time126 flights	87.4% on time154 flights	101 flights, too few to score
9 AM–10 AM	78.9% on time144 flights	97 flights, too few to score	94 flights, too few to score	85.7% on time163 flights	84.8% on time146 flights	85.7% on time134 flights	82.2% on time155 flights
10 AM–11 AM	83.1% on time238 flights	87.0% on time217 flights	90.2% on time209 flights	84.4% on time227 flights	83.3% on time237 flights	81.2% on time209 flights	85.8% on time259 flights
11 AM–12 PM	83 flights, too few to score	81.1% on time129 flights	75.2% on time132 flights	79 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	69.2% on time147 flights	82 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	73.1% on time215 flights	80.2% on time223 flights	77.1% on time215 flights	72.0% on time213 flights	65.6% on time223 flights	64.6% on time193 flights	68.0% on time197 flights
1 PM–2 PM	75 flights, too few to score	84 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	83 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score	103 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	54.7% on time164 flights	72.4% on time158 flights	69.3% on time154 flights	63.0% on time178 flights	58.3% on time184 flights	63.2% on time193 flights	56.1% on time159 flights
3 PM–4 PM	57.2% on time156 flights	80.3% on time129 flights	70.7% on time141 flights	61.4% on time169 flights	62.3% on time154 flights	56.3% on time121 flights	52.5% on time167 flights
4 PM–5 PM	56.4% on time140 flights	85 flights, too few to score	77 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	53.8% on time122 flights	52.1% on time124 flights
5 PM–6 PM	57.2% on time213 flights	66.8% on time216 flights	61.5% on time209 flights	58.5% on time239 flights	60.5% on time225 flights	56.4% on time223 flights	51.5% on time236 flights
6 PM–7 PM	65.3% on time149 flights	116 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	106 flights, too few to score	67.6% on time144 flights	61.3% on time170 flights	58.1% on time135 flights
7 PM–8 PM	62.0% on time205 flights	69.4% on time185 flights	70.3% on time193 flights	60.6% on time239 flights	64.1% on time225 flights	61.4% on time209 flights	46.5% on time216 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM89.8%

9 AM–12 PM82.1%

12–3 PM68.2%

3–6 PM60.2%

6–9 PM62.5%

9 PM–5 AM58.5%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why MCO → PHL runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft50.3%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline24.3%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control18.0%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather7.1%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.3%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → PHL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → PHL, at 50.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.8% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 58.5%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of MCO to PHL: 3.2 times the normal rate at MCO and 4.3 times at PHL. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MCO 4.0% against 1.3%, PHL 6.5% against 1.5%. Flights that did leave MCO in bad weather arrived on time 54.1% of the time, against 76.3% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MCO and PHL in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MCO	PHL
Cancelled in bad weather	4.0%	6.5%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.3%	1.5%
Arrived on time, bad weather	54.1%	64.3%
Arrived on time, normal hours	76.3%	78.2%
Departures in bad weather	33,297	32,038

Of the carriers on this route, Southwest Airlines (3.3% cancelled against 4.4% for the other carriers at MCO) cancelled the fewest departures from MCO in bad weather and Spirit Airlines (5.7% cancelled against 3.9% for the other carriers at MCO) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

All departures from MCO

Cancellation rates in bad weather at MCO for the airlines that fly MCO to PHL, against the other carriers at MCO in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	9,331	3.3%below the others	4.4%
American Airlines	4,024	4.6%above the others	3.9%
Frontier Airlines	3,840	4.7%above the others	3.9%
Spirit Airlines	4,014	5.7%above the others	3.9%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MCO and PHL, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MCO on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: MCO (airlines), PHL, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	7,845	74.6%	1.95%	-5 min	11.8%
Frontier Airlines	5,323	70.4%	2.22%	-3 min	13.4%
Spirit Airlines	2,541	69.6%	2.64%	-1 min	12.7%
Southwest Airlines	1,754	70.7%	0.74%	0 min	10.3%

American Airlines flew 44.9% of the 17,463 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 2.64% of its flights here against 0.74% for Southwest Airlines.

American Airlines arrived on time 5.0 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
F92416 Frontier Airlines	9:17 AM	778	78.2%
F92506 Frontier Airlines	11:30 AM	744	71.4%
F91542 Frontier Airlines	5:01 AM	657	87.4%
F94170 Frontier Airlines	6:52 PM	616	65.1%

F91542 (5:01 AM) arrived on time 87.4% of the time, 22.3 points more often than F94170 (6:52 PM) at 65.1%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon69.8%

Tue78.5%

Wed76.7%

Thu72.3%

Fri71.3%

Sat70.8%

Sun67.5%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.0 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 24.0 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.9% against 74.9% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.0 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 17,463 MCO → PHL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MCO airport PHL airport Return direction PHL → MCO

MCO→PHL

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why MCO → PHL flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MCO → PHL runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MCO

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology