ORD → MSP Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Destination · MSPNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Minneapolis airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

53/ 100Fair

Better than 20% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 18,310 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

73.3%

13,207 of 18,012

Cancellation rate

1.48%

271 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-4 min

Average 13.6 min

Severe delays

10.0%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

76 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

18,310

6 carriers

ORD → MSP arrives on time 73.3% of the time; the return trip, MSP → ORD, arrives on time 75.4% of the time, a 2.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

ORD → MSP spends 30.3 minutes on the ground on a 334-mile trip: 24.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ORD and 5.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why ORD → MSP flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

ORD → MSP cancelled 271 of 18,310 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 68. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 56.8% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 119 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather56.8%

Airline22.5%

Air traffic20.7%

Security0.0%

Of 271 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 119

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

154 cancellations, 56.8% of the total.

The airline1 in 300

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

61 cancellations, 22.5% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 327

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

56 cancellations, 20.7% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

271 coded cancellations were recorded on ORD → MSP; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

60 min late

against a median of 4 min early

Arrived an hour or more late10.0%

Typical delay when late76 min

Cancelled1.48%

Landed somewhere else0.15%

ORD → MSP has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 4 min early, but the worst tenth are 64 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 18,310 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at MSP after arriving from ORD.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, ORD → MSP arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	42%	Likely to miss
45 min	26%	High risk
60 min	18%	High risk
90 min	9.8%	Some risk
120 min	6.1%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.48% of the time and diverts 0.15% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 18,012 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 60 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 18,310 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

ORD → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.4% of the time, against 62.5% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 22.9 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (ORD).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 8.8 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 1.8 points.

On-time arrival rate for ORD to MSP by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 10 PM (438 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for ORD to MSP. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	84.0% on time175 flights	89.2% on time178 flights	92.2% on time168 flights	84.6% on time172 flights	88.2% on time173 flights	88.4% on time165 flights	83.1% on time177 flights
7 AM–8 AM	88.8% on time162 flights	89.1% on time148 flights	92.7% on time150 flights	91.9% on time161 flights	89.0% on time157 flights	84 flights, too few to score	94.9% on time136 flights
8 AM–9 AM	80.3% on time290 flights	86.3% on time297 flights	84.2% on time304 flights	84.4% on time290 flights	79.4% on time294 flights	81.2% on time256 flights	77.9% on time286 flights
9 AM–10 AM	116 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	92 flights, too few to score	96 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score	95 flights, too few to score	105 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	53 flights, too few to score	53 flights, too few to score	56 flights, too few to score	57 flights, too few to score	57 flights, too few to score	41 flights, too few to score	57 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	67.3% on time324 flights	76.4% on time320 flights	74.6% on time314 flights	70.9% on time317 flights	70.3% on time322 flights	72.5% on time298 flights	74.1% on time323 flights
1 PM–2 PM	62 flights, too few to score	44 flights, too few to score	60 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	45 flights, too few to score	58 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	79.1% on time184 flights	78.3% on time192 flights	70.2% on time189 flights	74.3% on time180 flights	76.4% on time174 flights	83.3% on time169 flights	79.2% on time180 flights
3 PM–4 PM	70.1% on time282 flights	68.1% on time267 flights	63.1% on time277 flights	63.9% on time277 flights	67.4% on time269 flights	79.6% on time227 flights	67.5% on time250 flights
4 PM–5 PM	70.8% on time159 flights	61.6% on time152 flights	69.3% on time142 flights	64.5% on time157 flights	66.2% on time157 flights	74.7% on time157 flights	68.0% on time157 flights
5 PM–6 PM	61.7% on time164 flights	69.1% on time176 flights	62.0% on time166 flights	53.8% on time161 flights	61.0% on time165 flights	70.1% on time137 flights	62.3% on time154 flights
6 PM–7 PM	59 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	49 flights, too few to score	48 flights, too few to score	47 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	109 flights, too few to score	106 flights, too few to score	104 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	98 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score
8 PM–9 PM	61.6% on time301 flights	65.1% on time256 flights	61.6% on time254 flights	54.4% on time288 flights	57.0% on time293 flights	66.5% on time204 flights	62.4% on time306 flights
9 PM–10 PM	67.8% on time123 flights	84 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score	67.3% on time155 flights	73.0% on time150 flights	96 flights, too few to score	63.1% on time150 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM85.4%

9 AM–12 PM80.3%

12–3 PM74.3%

3–6 PM66.6%

6–9 PM62.5%

9 PM–5 AM66.5%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why ORD → MSP runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft40.9%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline32.8%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control18.3%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather8.1%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security<0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ORD → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on ORD → MSP, at 40.9%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 85.4% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.5%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 3.1 times at MSP. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: ORD 6.5% against 1.2%, MSP 2.4% against 0.8%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from ORD and MSP in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	ORD	MSP
Cancelled in bad weather	6.5%	2.4%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.2%	0.8%
Arrived on time, bad weather	55.7%	65.6%
Arrived on time, normal hours	77.1%	83.5%
Departures in bad weather	104,455	42,174

Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (3.5% cancelled against 7.4% for the other carriers at ORD) cancelled the fewest departures from ORD in bad weather and SkyWest Airlines (10.7% cancelled against 5.8% for the other carriers at ORD) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

All departures from ORD

Cancellation rates in bad weather at ORD for the airlines that fly ORD to MSP, against the other carriers at ORD in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	31,269	3.5%below the others	7.4%
Delta Air Lines	3,353	3.5%below the others	6.2%
American Airlines	17,789	5.4%below the others	6.7%
Republic Airways	9,471	8.1%above the others	6.5%
Envoy Air	14,228	8.6%above the others	6.9%
SkyWest Airlines	21,044	10.7%above the others	5.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from ORD and MSP, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from ORD on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: ORD (airlines), MSP, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
United Airlines	7,057	73.0%	0.99%	-2 min	9.3%
Delta Air Lines	5,327	74.7%	1.31%	-8 min	11.1%
Envoy Air	2,546	75.0%	1.69%	-3 min	7.7%
Republic Airways	1,125	76.7%	4.09%	-6 min	8.0%
American Airlines	1,090	64.8%	0.92%	2 min	13.7%
SkyWest Airlines	1,086	70.1%	2.67%	-1 min	12.7%

United Airlines flew 38.7% of the 18,231 flights listed. Republic Airways cancelled 4.09% of its flights here against 0.92% for American Airlines.

Republic Airways arrived on time 11.9 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
UA2232 United Airlines	7:10 AM	880	90.2%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon72.8%

Tue75.4%

Wed73.3%

Thu70.8%

Fri71.7%

Sat76.4%

Sun73.4%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 5.6 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 18.8 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 70.2% against 75.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.0 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 18,310 ORD → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

ORD airport MSP airport Return direction MSP → ORD

ORD→MSP

Right now

Route reliability

Why ORD → MSP flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why ORD → MSP runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology