ORD → BNA Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Destination · BNANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Nashville airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

54/ 100Fair

Better than 23% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 15,023 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

75.3%

11,102 of 14,743

Cancellation rate

1.70%

256 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-5 min

Average 12.1 min

Severe delays

9.7%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

76 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

15,023

7 carriers

ORD → BNA arrives on time 75.3% of the time; the return trip, BNA → ORD, arrives on time 76.1% of the time.

ORD → BNA spends 34.4 minutes on the ground on a 409-mile trip: 25.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at ORD and 9.3 minutes from touchdown to gate at BNA.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why ORD → BNA flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

ORD → BNA cancelled 256 of 15,023 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 59. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 74.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 79 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather74.6%

Air traffic14.5%

Airline10.9%

Security0.0%

Of 256 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 79

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

191 cancellations, 74.6% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 406

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

37 cancellations, 14.5% of the total.

The airline1 in 537

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

28 cancellations, 10.9% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

256 coded cancellations were recorded on ORD → BNA; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

58 min late

against a median of 5 min early

Arrived an hour or more late9.7%

Typical delay when late76 min

Cancelled1.70%

Landed somewhere else0.16%

ORD → BNA has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 5 min early, but the worst tenth are 63 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 15,023 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at BNA after arriving from ORD.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, ORD → BNA arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	40%	Likely to miss
45 min	24%	High risk
60 min	17%	High risk
90 min	9.6%	Some risk
120 min	6.1%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.70% of the time and diverts 0.16% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 14,743 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 58 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 15,023 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

ORD → BNA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.2% of the time, against 65.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 19.5 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (ORD).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 8.0 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.3 points.

On-time arrival rate for ORD to BNA by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 7 AM and after 9 PM (1,251 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for ORD to BNA. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
7 AM–8 AM	84.7% on time205 flights	87.6% on time178 flights	89.5% on time182 flights	87.7% on time204 flights	86.9% on time201 flights	86.0% on time178 flights	88.1% on time197 flights
8 AM–9 AM	84.0% on time152 flights	84.8% on time162 flights	80.4% on time160 flights	85.3% on time150 flights	84.1% on time147 flights	78.5% on time136 flights	74.2% on time152 flights
9 AM–10 AM	17 flights, too few to score	23 flights, too few to score	27 flights, too few to score	27 flights, too few to score	25 flights, too few to score	50 flights, too few to score	15 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	86.9% on time279 flights	86.2% on time248 flights	84.4% on time259 flights	89.3% on time272 flights	78.7% on time283 flights	84.1% on time237 flights	82.9% on time265 flights
11 AM–12 PM	46 flights, too few to score	53 flights, too few to score	49 flights, too few to score	48 flights, too few to score	44 flights, too few to score	47 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	77.4% on time142 flights	84.4% on time131 flights	79.8% on time126 flights	78.5% on time146 flights	73.9% on time139 flights	93 flights, too few to score	70.5% on time141 flights
1 PM–2 PM	73.0% on time164 flights	79.1% on time151 flights	83.4% on time165 flights	73.6% on time161 flights	74.5% on time164 flights	80.0% on time153 flights	73.5% on time154 flights
2 PM–3 PM	77.1% on time246 flights	77.9% on time211 flights	82.0% on time208 flights	75.1% on time237 flights	72.9% on time244 flights	80.3% on time227 flights	76.9% on time216 flights
3 PM–4 PM	65.6% on time161 flights	70.3% on time130 flights	66.7% on time140 flights	70.3% on time171 flights	66.7% on time173 flights	79 flights, too few to score	58.8% on time160 flights
4 PM–5 PM	57 flights, too few to score	40 flights, too few to score	43 flights, too few to score	41 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	53 flights, too few to score	74 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	66.0% on time222 flights	71.0% on time233 flights	67.7% on time233 flights	70.5% on time212 flights	67.7% on time225 flights	72.5% on time212 flights	61.8% on time225 flights
6 PM–7 PM	67.1% on time153 flights	66.7% on time145 flights	72.8% on time138 flights	58.8% on time150 flights	61.8% on time147 flights	86 flights, too few to score	61.6% on time141 flights
7 PM–8 PM	92 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score	72 flights, too few to score	92 flights, too few to score
8 PM–9 PM	73.9% on time126 flights	115 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	55.9% on time123 flights	71.1% on time131 flights	58.8% on time123 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM85.2%

9 AM–12 PM82.9%

12–3 PM77.3%

3–6 PM67.1%

6–9 PM65.7%

9 PM–5 AM65.9%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why ORD → BNA runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft36.2%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline32.6%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control19.5%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather11.8%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security<0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for ORD → BNA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on ORD → BNA, at 36.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 85.2% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 65.7%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of ORD to BNA: 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD and 4.4 times at BNA. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: ORD 6.5% against 1.2%, BNA 4.7% against 1.1%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from ORD and BNA in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	ORD	BNA
Cancelled in bad weather	6.5%	4.7%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.2%	1.1%
Arrived on time, bad weather	55.7%	66.5%
Arrived on time, normal hours	77.1%	79.0%
Departures in bad weather	104,455	20,643

Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (3.5% cancelled against 7.4% for the other carriers at ORD) cancelled the fewest departures from ORD in bad weather and SkyWest Airlines (10.7% cancelled against 5.8% for the other carriers at ORD) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

All departures from ORD

Cancellation rates in bad weather at ORD for the airlines that fly ORD to BNA, against the other carriers at ORD in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	31,269	3.5%below the others	7.4%
Frontier Airlines	1,047	6.0%about level	7.5%
American Airlines	17,789	5.4%below the others	6.7%
Southwest Airlines	2,055	4.2%about level	5.1%
Republic Airways	9,471	8.1%above the others	6.5%
Envoy Air	14,228	8.6%above the others	6.9%
SkyWest Airlines	21,044	10.7%above the others	5.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from ORD and BNA, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from ORD on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: ORD (airlines), BNA, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
SkyWest Airlines	4,871	71.4%	2.28%	-3 min	12.9%
United Airlines	3,597	77.6%	1.31%	-5 min	8.9%
Envoy Air	2,185	78.2%	2.01%	-5 min	6.6%
Southwest Airlines	2,079	79.0%	1.01%	-5 min	6.6%
Republic Airways	1,153	79.2%	1.21%	-7 min	6.6%
American Airlines	808	68.9%	1.61%	-1 min	14.0%
Frontier Airlines	284	65.8%	2.11%	-1 min	14.7%

SkyWest Airlines flew 32.5% of the 14,977 flights listed. SkyWest Airlines cancelled 2.28% of its flights here against 1.01% for Southwest Airlines.

Republic Airways arrived on time 13.4 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
UA2414 United Airlines	10:50 AM	839	86.2%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon75.0%

Tue77.7%

Wed76.8%

Thu76.0%

Fri73.0%

Sat78.0%

Sun71.2%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.8 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 16.0 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 70.0% against 75.6% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.6 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 15,023 ORD → BNA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

ORD airport BNA airport Return direction BNA → ORD

ORD→BNA

Right now

Route reliability

Why ORD → BNA flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why ORD → BNA runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at ORD

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology