Route profile
MSP→PHX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Phoenix, 1,276 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 76% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,907 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → PHX arrives on time 82.3% of the time; the return trip, PHX → MSP, arrives on time 84.3% of the time.
MSP → PHX spends 25.7 minutes on the ground on a 1,276-mile trip: 17.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 8.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 96% of 4,467 comparable routes.
84.6% on time on the best day (Wednesday) against 80.8% on the worst (Thursday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to PHX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to PHX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 83.9% arrive on time, 13.2 points ahead of the 70.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.2 points.
MSP to PHX holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 81.7% on time to their 74.2%, a 7.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
July is kinder to MSP to PHX than to routes of similar length: 78.8% on time against 69.2%, 9.6 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.1 points.
In February, MSP to PHX runs 2.9 points below routes of similar length, 78.1% on time to 81.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 3.4 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on MSP to PHX than on its routes of similar length: 91.3% on time here, 75.7% there, 15.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 13.9 points.
MSP to PHX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 83.9% | routes of similar length | 70.7% | +13.2 pts | 273 here, 97,389 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 81.7% | routes of similar length | 74.2% | +7.5 pts | 1,437 here, 271,642 there |
| Month: July | 78.8% | routes of similar length | 69.2% | +9.6 pts | 997 here, 203,841 there |
| Month: February | 78.1% | routes of similar length | 81.0% | −2.9 pts | 782 here, 137,211 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 91.3% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | +15.6 pts | 1,151 here, 397,256 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,276 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → PHX flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → PHX cancelled 63 of 9,907 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 157. The reason filed most often was the airline, 58.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 268 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 63 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
37 cancellations, 58.7% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
25 cancellations, 39.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
1 cancellation, 1.6% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
63 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → PHX; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
32 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 9,907 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHX after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 34% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 17% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.6% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.64% of the time and diverts 0.15% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,829 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 32 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,907 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → PHX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.0% of the time, against 73.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 16.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.4% on time from 418 flights
- 6 AM: 92.3% on time from 1,027 flights
- 7 AM: 87.7% on time from 1,295 flights
- 8 AM: 81.3% on time from 135 flights
- 9 AM: 83.9% on time from 869 flights
- 10 AM: 88.6% on time from 267 flights
- 11 AM: 83.4% on time from 1,182 flights
- 12 PM: too few flights to score
- 1 PM: 77.5% on time from 129 flights
- 2 PM: 78.3% on time from 1,932 flights
- 3 PM: 83.9% on time from 274 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 72.6% on time from 1,002 flights
- 7 PM: 77.6% on time from 147 flights
- 8 PM: 71.9% on time from 174 flights
- 9 PM: 77.9% on time from 571 flights
- 10 PM: 68.3% on time from 245 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → PHX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → PHX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6,456 | 81.2% | 0.57% | -6 min | 6.1% |
| American Airlines | 1,851 | 80.3% | 0.81% | -9 min | 6.8% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,160 | 91.3% | 0.60% | -11 min | 2.4% |
| Frontier Airlines | 424 | 84.1% | 0.71% | -14 min | 5.9% |
Delta Air Lines flew 65.3% of the 9,891 flights listed.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 11.0 percentage points more often than American Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 3.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.6%
- Feb: 78.1%
- Mar: 82.5%
- Apr: 83.9%
- May: 81.5%
- Jun: 78.6%
- Jul: 78.8%
- Aug: 84.4%
- Sep: 90.2%
- Oct: 86.1%
- Nov: 84.4%
- Dec: 77.9%
December is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 12.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 78.1% from 248 flights
- August 2023: 85.7% from 239 flights
- September 2023: 91.9% from 249 flights
- October 2023: 86.0% from 250 flights
- November 2023: 90.3% from 248 flights
- December 2023: 95.3% from 257 flights
- January 2024: 88.9% from 262 flights
- February 2024: 82.7% from 261 flights
- March 2024: 84.6% from 348 flights
- April 2024: 85.1% from 309 flights
- May 2024: 76.6% from 271 flights
- June 2024: 71.9% from 260 flights
- July 2024: 78.1% from 288 flights
- August 2024: 82.9% from 283 flights
- September 2024: 90.8% from 274 flights
- October 2024: 89.8% from 275 flights
- November 2024: 85.6% from 263 flights
- December 2024: 74.5% from 302 flights
- January 2025: 86.0% from 280 flights
- February 2025: 76.0% from 263 flights
- March 2025: 78.4% from 345 flights
- April 2025: 81.6% from 304 flights
- May 2025: 84.4% from 269 flights
- June 2025: 80.8% from 267 flights
- July 2025: 77.7% from 273 flights
- August 2025: 84.8% from 251 flights
- September 2025: 87.6% from 231 flights
- October 2025: 82.4% from 268 flights
- November 2025: 77.3% from 248 flights
- December 2025: 64.9% from 268 flights
- January 2026: 71.8% from 245 flights
- February 2026: 75.8% from 260 flights
- March 2026: 84.5% from 337 flights
- April 2026: 85.3% from 259 flights
- May 2026: 83.9% from 234 flights
- June 2026: 84.1% from 207 flights
- July 2026: 82.2% from 211 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 80.3% against 82.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 1.9 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,907 MSP → PHX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed