Route profile
PHX→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Phoenix to Minneapolis, 1,276 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 86% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,907 flights. How this is calculated
PHX → MSP arrives on time 84.3% of the time; the return trip, MSP → PHX, arrives on time 82.3% of the time.
PHX → MSP spends 21.1 minutes on the ground on a 1,276-mile trip: 14.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 6.4 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 98% of 4,467 comparable routes.
86.5% on time on the best day (Wednesday) against 83.3% on the worst (Friday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHX to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHX to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 5 PM: 82.3% arrive on time, 13.9 points ahead of the 68.4% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 12.5 points.
PHX to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 83.4% on time to their 74.1%, a 9.3 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8.6 points.
June is kinder to PHX to MSP than to routes of similar length: 81.9% on time against 71.7%, 10.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.2 points.
American Airlines does better on PHX to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 81.6% on time here, 74.6% there, 7 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 6.5 points.
PHX to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 82.3% | routes of similar length | 68.4% | +13.9 pts | 711 here, 119,037 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 83.4% | routes of similar length | 74.1% | +9.3 pts | 1,416 here, 271,663 there |
| Month: June | 81.9% | routes of similar length | 71.7% | +10.2 pts | 733 here, 151,094 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 81.6% | routes of similar length | 74.6% | +7.0 pts | 1,839 here, 436,845 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,276 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why PHX → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
PHX → MSP cancelled 58 of 9,907 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 171. The reason filed most often was the airline, 53.4% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 320 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 58 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
31 cancellations, 53.4% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
25 cancellations, 43.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
2 cancellations, 3.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
58 coded cancellations were recorded on PHX → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
29 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 9,907 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from PHX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 15% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.7% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.8% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 3.0% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.59% of the time and diverts 0.16% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,833 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 29 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,907 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHX → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.1% of the time, against 76.1% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 15.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM: 89.4% on time from 561 flights
- 1 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 94.3% on time from 143 flights
- 6 AM: 93.8% on time from 784 flights
- 7 AM: 92.4% on time from 446 flights
- 8 AM: 86.7% on time from 711 flights
- 9 AM: 87.4% on time from 1,236 flights
- 10 AM: 91.7% on time from 473 flights
- 11 AM: 89.0% on time from 644 flights
- 12 PM: 80.0% on time from 251 flights
- 1 PM: 77.9% on time from 646 flights
- 2 PM: 83.0% on time from 497 flights
- 3 PM: 78.3% on time from 417 flights
- 4 PM: 77.4% on time from 334 flights
- 5 PM: 82.3% on time from 722 flights
- 6 PM: 77.9% on time from 1,220 flights
- 7 PM: 75.3% on time from 615 flights
- 8 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why PHX → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHX → MSP, at 51.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.1% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 76.1%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6,456 | 86.8% | 0.57% | -9 min | 4.0% |
| American Airlines | 1,853 | 81.6% | 0.65% | -8 min | 6.6% |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,158 | 74.3% | 0.52% | -1 min | 6.5% |
| Frontier Airlines | 424 | 84.6% | 0.71% | -8 min | 5.5% |
Delta Air Lines flew 65.3% of the 9,891 flights listed.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 12.5 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| DL2553 Delta Air Lines | 6:00 AM | 785 | 93.6% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 3.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.4%
- Feb: 86.2%
- Mar: 82.5%
- Apr: 85.9%
- May: 81.6%
- Jun: 81.9%
- Jul: 78.1%
- Aug: 84.7%
- Sep: 89.4%
- Oct: 88.0%
- Nov: 88.9%
- Dec: 81.8%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 11.3 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 83.5% from 248 flights
- August 2023: 90.3% from 239 flights
- September 2023: 90.0% from 251 flights
- October 2023: 87.5% from 248 flights
- November 2023: 90.3% from 248 flights
- December 2023: 85.9% from 256 flights
- January 2024: 85.1% from 262 flights
- February 2024: 89.7% from 261 flights
- March 2024: 78.6% from 348 flights
- April 2024: 83.8% from 309 flights
- May 2024: 81.8% from 271 flights
- June 2024: 70.3% from 259 flights
- July 2024: 71.6% from 289 flights
- August 2024: 81.6% from 284 flights
- September 2024: 91.1% from 273 flights
- October 2024: 90.5% from 275 flights
- November 2024: 92.0% from 262 flights
- December 2024: 81.8% from 302 flights
- January 2025: 88.5% from 280 flights
- February 2025: 88.5% from 262 flights
- March 2025: 85.7% from 346 flights
- April 2025: 85.2% from 304 flights
- May 2025: 79.0% from 269 flights
- June 2025: 87.6% from 269 flights
- July 2025: 81.0% from 272 flights
- August 2025: 82.9% from 251 flights
- September 2025: 86.7% from 229 flights
- October 2025: 85.9% from 270 flights
- November 2025: 84.0% from 246 flights
- December 2025: 77.9% from 269 flights
- January 2026: 78.8% from 245 flights
- February 2026: 80.5% from 262 flights
- March 2026: 83.2% from 337 flights
- April 2026: 89.2% from 259 flights
- May 2026: 84.4% from 233 flights
- June 2026: 88.9% from 207 flights
- July 2026: 76.8% from 212 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 83.2% against 86.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,907 PHX → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed