Route profile
MSP→LAX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Los Angeles, 1,535 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 92% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,947 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MSP → LAX arrives on time 84.5% of the time; the return trip, LAX → MSP, arrives on time 86.6% of the time, a 2.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → LAX spends 28.6 minutes on the ground on a 1,535-mile trip: 17.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 11.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at LAX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to LAX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to LAX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 2 PM: 87.7% arrive on time, 14.8 points ahead of the 72.9% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 13.1 points.
MSP to LAX holds up on Tuesdays better than routes of similar length do: 89.2% on time to their 80.5%, a 8.7 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.6 points.
September is kinder to MSP to LAX than to routes of similar length: 91.9% on time against 82.0%, 9.9 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on MSP to LAX than on its routes of similar length: 84.5% on time here, 82.3% there, 2.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 3 points.
MSP to LAX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 2 PM departures | 87.7% | routes of similar length | 72.9% | +14.8 pts | 326 here, 84,583 there |
| Weekday: Tuesday | 89.2% | routes of similar length | 80.5% | +8.7 pts | 951 here, 216,865 there |
| Month: September | 91.9% | routes of similar length | 82.0% | +9.9 pts | 580 here, 124,921 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 84.5% | routes of similar length | 82.3% | +2.2 pts | 6,898 here, 308,578 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,535 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
25 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 6,947 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at LAX after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 31% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 8.4% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.6% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 1.9% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.65% of the time and diverts 0.06% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,898 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 25 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,947 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → LAX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.6% of the time, against 75.3% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 13.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 94.1% on time from 226 flights
- 7 AM: 87.5% on time from 936 flights
- 8 AM: 88.1% on time from 422 flights
- 9 AM: 88.3% on time from 638 flights
- 10 AM: 87.2% on time from 196 flights
- 11 AM: 87.6% on time from 937 flights
- 12 PM: 87.7% on time from 196 flights
- 1 PM: 88.8% on time from 512 flights
- 2 PM: 87.7% on time from 327 flights
- 3 PM: 82.7% on time from 598 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 77.6% on time from 1,096 flights
- 7 PM to 8 PM: too few flights to score
- 9 PM: 75.2% on time from 735 flights
- 10 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → LAX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → LAX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6,947 | 84.5% | 0.65% | -8 min | 3.6% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL2119 (11:00 AM) arrived on time 87.3% of the time, 10.9 points more often than DL2122 (6:59 PM) at 76.4%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.5 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 87.2%
- Feb: 83.8%
- Mar: 83.5%
- Apr: 88.0%
- May: 84.0%
- Jun: 78.7%
- Jul: 78.8%
- Aug: 85.7%
- Sep: 91.9%
- Oct: 88.3%
- Nov: 87.3%
- Dec: 80.2%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 13.2 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 81.7% from 231 flights
- August 2023: 88.4% from 235 flights
- September 2023: 91.9% from 198 flights
- October 2023: 90.4% from 198 flights
- November 2023: 86.9% from 175 flights
- December 2023: 95.7% from 184 flights
- January 2024: 93.6% from 156 flights
- February 2024: 84.2% from 139 flights
- March 2024: 81.3% from 166 flights
- April 2024: 89.6% from 183 flights
- May 2024: 84.2% from 203 flights
- June 2024: 78.2% from 220 flights
- July 2024: 76.3% from 229 flights
- August 2024: 82.8% from 232 flights
- September 2024: 91.1% from 203 flights
- October 2024: 90.7% from 205 flights
- November 2024: 93.2% from 177 flights
- December 2024: 79.3% from 184 flights
- January 2025: 87.7% from 156 flights
- February 2025: 82.8% from 134 flights
- March 2025: 81.1% from 169 flights
- April 2025: 85.3% from 184 flights
- May 2025: 88.6% from 203 flights
- June 2025: 80.2% from 219 flights
- July 2025: 78.8% from 231 flights
- August 2025: 86.0% from 209 flights
- September 2025: 92.7% from 180 flights
- October 2025: 83.3% from 186 flights
- November 2025: 81.7% from 176 flights
- December 2025: 63.8% from 168 flights
- January 2026: 79.6% from 143 flights
- February 2026: 84.4% from 135 flights
- March 2026: 88.3% from 169 flights
- April 2026: 89.1% from 175 flights
- May 2026: 78.7% from 185 flights
- June 2026: 77.7% from 199 flights
- July 2026: 78.2% from 208 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.0% against 85.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.0 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,947 MSP → LAX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed