Route profile
LAX→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Los Angeles to Minneapolis, 1,535 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 94% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,950 flights. How this is calculated
LAX → MSP arrives on time 86.6% of the time; the return trip, MSP → LAX, arrives on time 84.5% of the time, a 2.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
LAX → MSP spends 23.6 minutes on the ground on a 1,535-mile trip: 16.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at LAX and 7.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
This route has stayed remarkably steady year over year, a smaller swing than 93% of 5,368 comparable routes.
86.8% on time over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), against 86.4% in the 12 months before (2024-08 to 2025-07), virtually unchanged.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 5,368 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where LAX to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
LAX to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 4 PM: 84.9% arrive on time, 14.2 points ahead of the 70.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14.2 points.
LAX to MSP holds up on Thursdays better than routes of similar length do: 86.5% on time to their 76.5%, a 10 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 9.7 points.
August is kinder to LAX to MSP than to routes of similar length: 87.4% on time against 76.1%, 11.3 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 10.9 points.
Delta Air Lines does better on LAX to MSP than on its routes of similar length: 86.6% on time here, 82.2% there, 4.4 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
LAX to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 4 PM departures | 84.9% | routes of similar length | 70.7% | +14.2 pts | 279 here, 85,203 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 86.5% | routes of similar length | 76.5% | +10.0 pts | 995 here, 233,094 there |
| Month: August | 87.4% | routes of similar length | 76.1% | +11.3 pts | 674 here, 134,572 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 86.6% | routes of similar length | 82.2% | +4.4 pts | 6,899 here, 308,577 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,535 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
22 min late
against a median of 10 min early
Percentiles over 6,950 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from LAX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 28% | High risk |
| 45 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 7.7% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 3.9% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.63% of the time and diverts 0.10% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,899 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 22 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,950 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
LAX → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 92.8% of the time, against 80.7% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 12.1 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM: 84.3% on time from 357 flights
- 1 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 93.3% on time from 1,127 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 91.9% on time from 755 flights
- 9 AM: 85.2% on time from 355 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 88.7% on time from 759 flights
- 12 PM: 80.9% on time from 363 flights
- 1 PM: 80.5% on time from 898 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 85.4% on time from 653 flights
- 4 PM: 84.9% on time from 280 flights
- 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 83.2% on time from 429 flights
- 7 PM to 10 PM: too few flights to score
- 11 PM: 84.1% on time from 878 flights
Why LAX → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for LAX → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6,950 | 86.6% | 0.63% | -10 min | 4.0% |
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL792 (6:15 AM) arrived on time 93.0% of the time, 11.7 points more often than DL914 (1:30 PM) at 81.3%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 7.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 90.1%
- Feb: 87.7%
- Mar: 84.3%
- Apr: 89.1%
- May: 82.0%
- Jun: 80.9%
- Jul: 78.9%
- Aug: 87.4%
- Sep: 91.6%
- Oct: 92.0%
- Nov: 92.8%
- Dec: 88.6%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 13.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 83.3% from 230 flights
- August 2023: 86.3% from 235 flights
- September 2023: 91.9% from 199 flights
- October 2023: 92.9% from 198 flights
- November 2023: 94.9% from 175 flights
- December 2023: 91.4% from 185 flights
- January 2024: 89.1% from 156 flights
- February 2024: 89.9% from 139 flights
- March 2024: 86.1% from 166 flights
- April 2024: 85.8% from 183 flights
- May 2024: 81.8% from 203 flights
- June 2024: 80.9% from 221 flights
- July 2024: 75.7% from 229 flights
- August 2024: 87.5% from 232 flights
- September 2024: 93.1% from 203 flights
- October 2024: 89.3% from 205 flights
- November 2024: 97.2% from 177 flights
- December 2024: 90.3% from 185 flights
- January 2025: 89.7% from 156 flights
- February 2025: 86.6% from 134 flights
- March 2025: 83.9% from 168 flights
- April 2025: 90.7% from 183 flights
- May 2025: 81.3% from 204 flights
- June 2025: 76.9% from 219 flights
- July 2025: 75.5% from 230 flights
- August 2025: 88.5% from 210 flights
- September 2025: 89.4% from 180 flights
- October 2025: 94.1% from 186 flights
- November 2025: 86.4% from 177 flights
- December 2025: 83.4% from 168 flights
- January 2026: 91.6% from 144 flights
- February 2026: 86.6% from 134 flights
- March 2026: 82.8% from 168 flights
- April 2026: 90.9% from 175 flights
- May 2026: 83.2% from 186 flights
- June 2026: 85.2% from 198 flights
- July 2026: 81.0% from 209 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 86.8% against 86.4% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,950 LAX → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed