Route profile
MSP→LAS
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Las Vegas, 1,299 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 88% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,767 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → LAS arrives on time 83.3% of the time; the return trip, LAS → MSP, arrives on time 84.9% of the time.
MSP → LAS spends 25.6 minutes on the ground on a 1,299-mile trip: 16.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 8.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at LAS.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to LAS differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to LAS is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 9 PM: 80.2% arrive on time, 14.7 points ahead of the 65.5% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.8 points.
MSP to LAS holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 86.2% on time to their 78.1%, a 8.1 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
July is kinder to MSP to LAS than to routes of similar length: 80.1% on time against 69.6%, 10.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 10.4 points.
Southwest Airlines does better on MSP to LAS than on its routes of similar length: 84.9% on time here, 75.7% there, 9.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
MSP to LAS against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 80.2% | routes of similar length | 65.5% | +14.7 pts | 660 here, 38,200 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 86.2% | routes of similar length | 78.1% | +8.1 pts | 1,047 here, 229,878 there |
| Month: July | 80.1% | routes of similar length | 69.6% | +10.5 pts | 808 here, 193,621 there |
| Airline: Southwest Airlines | 84.9% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | +9.2 pts | 755 here, 401,864 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,299 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → LAS flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → LAS cancelled 55 of 7,767 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 141. The reason filed most often was the airline, 69.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 204 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 55 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
38 cancellations, 69.1% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
16 cancellations, 29.1% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
1 cancellation, 1.8% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
55 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → LAS; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
30 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 7,767 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at LAS after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 16% | High risk |
| 60 min | 9.7% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.6% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.71% of the time and diverts 0.09% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,705 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 30 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,767 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → LAS flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.8% of the time, against 75.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 16.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 93.3% on time from 457 flights
- 7 AM: 92.5% on time from 884 flights
- 8 AM: 85.2% on time from 171 flights
- 9 AM: 89.3% on time from 1,022 flights
- 10 AM: too few flights to score
- 11 AM: 86.1% on time from 1,197 flights
- 12 PM to 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 82.1% on time from 694 flights
- 3 PM: 81.2% on time from 316 flights
- 4 PM: 75.4% on time from 244 flights
- 5 PM: 78.3% on time from 122 flights
- 6 PM: 77.4% on time from 811 flights
- 7 PM: 66.5% on time from 230 flights
- 8 PM: 78.2% on time from 158 flights
- 9 PM: 80.2% on time from 664 flights
- 10 PM: 72.6% on time from 396 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → LAS runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → LAS. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6,629 | 83.8% | 0.69% | -9 min | 4.4% |
| Southwest Airlines | 756 | 84.9% | 0.13% | -7 min | 3.7% |
| Spirit Airlines | 368 | 70.8% | 2.17% | -6 min | 10.8% |
Delta Air Lines flew 85.5% of the 7,753 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 2.17% of its flights here against 0.13% for Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines arrived on time 14.1 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL2261 (7:00 AM) arrived on time 90.8% of the time, 16.9 points more often than DL2246 (6:59 PM) at 73.9%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 7.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 81.5%
- Feb: 82.9%
- Mar: 80.8%
- Apr: 85.6%
- May: 83.7%
- Jun: 76.1%
- Jul: 80.1%
- Aug: 81.0%
- Sep: 89.6%
- Oct: 86.8%
- Nov: 88.1%
- Dec: 84.1%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 13.5 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 83.1% from 228 flights
- August 2023: 80.6% from 224 flights
- September 2023: 86.4% from 222 flights
- October 2023: 89.0% from 273 flights
- November 2023: 93.0% from 227 flights
- December 2023: 91.4% from 220 flights
- January 2024: 86.3% from 227 flights
- February 2024: 88.4% from 216 flights
- March 2024: 78.3% from 256 flights
- April 2024: 90.6% from 244 flights
- May 2024: 82.4% from 251 flights
- June 2024: 69.7% from 251 flights
- July 2024: 74.6% from 254 flights
- August 2024: 75.6% from 243 flights
- September 2024: 89.5% from 210 flights
- October 2024: 89.7% from 224 flights
- November 2024: 88.1% from 201 flights
- December 2024: 82.1% from 207 flights
- January 2025: 83.8% from 186 flights
- February 2025: 81.9% from 171 flights
- March 2025: 77.8% from 225 flights
- April 2025: 80.4% from 226 flights
- May 2025: 90.6% from 233 flights
- June 2025: 84.4% from 214 flights
- July 2025: 81.8% from 205 flights
- August 2025: 88.4% from 192 flights
- September 2025: 93.4% from 183 flights
- October 2025: 80.0% from 192 flights
- November 2025: 81.3% from 162 flights
- December 2025: 77.1% from 169 flights
- January 2026: 73.0% from 178 flights
- February 2026: 76.9% from 174 flights
- March 2026: 87.4% from 215 flights
- April 2026: 85.4% from 201 flights
- May 2026: 76.6% from 178 flights
- June 2026: 74.8% from 139 flights
- July 2026: 81.9% from 146 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 81.7% against 83.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,767 MSP → LAS flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed