MSP → DEN Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MSPNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Minneapolis airport profile →

Destination · DENNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Denver airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

71/ 100Good

Better than 65% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 18,785 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

79.5%

14,810 of 18,619

Cancellation rate

0.69%

129 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-7 min

Average 4.7 min

Severe delays

6.9%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

65 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

18,785

5 carriers

MSP → DEN arrives on time 79.5% of the time; the return trip, DEN → MSP, arrives on time 77.5% of the time, a 2.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

MSP → DEN spends 27.5 minutes on the ground on a 680-mile trip: 17.7 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 9.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at DEN.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 96% of 4,467 comparable routes.

81.7% on time on the best day (Saturday) against 77.8% on the worst (Thursday).

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.

Why MSP → DEN flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MSP → DEN cancelled 129 of 18,785 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 146. The reason filed most often was the airline, 50.4% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 289 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Airline50.4%

Weather38.8%

Air traffic10.9%

Security0.0%

Of 129 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

The airline1 in 289

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

65 cancellations, 50.4% of the total.

Extreme weather1 in 376

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

50 cancellations, 38.8% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 1,342

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

14 cancellations, 10.9% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

129 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → DEN; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

41 min late

against a median of 7 min early

Arrived an hour or more late6.9%

Typical delay when late65 min

Cancelled0.69%

Landed somewhere else0.20%

Percentiles over 18,785 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at DEN after arriving from MSP.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MSP → DEN arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	35%	Likely to miss
45 min	20%	High risk
60 min	13%	Some risk
90 min	6.7%	Some risk
120 min	4.0%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.69% of the time and diverts 0.20% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 18,619 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 41 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 18,785 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MSP → DEN flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.0% of the time, against 66.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 22.4 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MSP).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.8 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 1.2 points.

On-time arrival rate for MSP to DEN by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 7 PM (2,288 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MSP to DEN. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	94.1% on time222 flights	93.8% on time179 flights	93.3% on time180 flights	95.6% on time229 flights	93.3% on time226 flights	92.8% on time196 flights	94.4% on time199 flights
6 AM–7 AM	91.4% on time176 flights	93.1% on time160 flights	93.1% on time159 flights	93.5% on time170 flights	88.8% on time173 flights	88.7% on time134 flights	92.8% on time184 flights
7 AM–8 AM	62 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	67 flights, too few to score	83 flights, too few to score	75 flights, too few to score
8 AM–9 AM	81.5% on time208 flights	80.3% on time235 flights	82.7% on time229 flights	83.1% on time208 flights	79.7% on time209 flights	83.5% on time172 flights	81.8% on time189 flights
9 AM–10 AM	86.8% on time196 flights	83.2% on time216 flights	81.6% on time213 flights	86.4% on time216 flights	81.6% on time203 flights	85.0% on time208 flights	84.7% on time218 flights
10 AM–11 AM	81.5% on time120 flights	90 flights, too few to score	93 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	88.9% on time127 flights	92 flights, too few to score	100 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	87.3% on time229 flights	82.8% on time234 flights	89.1% on time239 flights	86.0% on time237 flights	84.9% on time227 flights	87.1% on time140 flights	88.8% on time208 flights
12 PM–1 PM	85.9% on time206 flights	87.0% on time193 flights	85.0% on time188 flights	84.9% on time194 flights	88.9% on time208 flights	85.4% on time158 flights	85.3% on time180 flights
1 PM–2 PM	81.4% on time210 flights	85.6% on time196 flights	84.7% on time204 flights	78.9% on time200 flights	82.8% on time205 flights	88.2% on time188 flights	84.9% on time215 flights
2 PM–3 PM	79.9% on time142 flights	78.7% on time169 flights	76.9% on time172 flights	77.5% on time140 flights	79.1% on time139 flights	84.0% on time151 flights	77.2% on time127 flights
3 PM–4 PM	69.7% on time133 flights	112 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	69.9% on time138 flights	75.0% on time132 flights	80 flights, too few to score	74.8% on time149 flights
4 PM–5 PM	64.5% on time138 flights	60.9% on time152 flights	55.4% on time150 flights	59.0% on time124 flights	61.7% on time142 flights	69.5% on time165 flights	61.5% on time159 flights
5 PM–6 PM	71.1% on time128 flights	97 flights, too few to score	104 flights, too few to score	68.9% on time120 flights	68.8% on time128 flights	106 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	68.8% on time268 flights	69.6% on time280 flights	69.1% on time303 flights	62.5% on time268 flights	62.0% on time265 flights	69.5% on time198 flights	65.0% on time232 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM89.0%

9 AM–12 PM85.4%

12–3 PM83.3%

3–6 PM68.6%

6–9 PM66.6%

9 PM–5 AM69.8%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why MSP → DEN runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft35.6%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control33.5%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

The airline28.1%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Weather2.8%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security<0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → DEN. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MSP → DEN, at 35.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.0% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 66.6%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of MSP to DEN: 3.1 times the normal rate at MSP and 4.0 times at DEN. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MSP 2.4% against 0.8%, DEN 2.8% against 0.7%. Flights that did leave DEN in bad weather arrived on time 51.5% of the time, against 78.8% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MSP and DEN in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MSP	DEN
Cancelled in bad weather	2.4%	2.8%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.8%	0.7%
Arrived on time, bad weather	65.6%	51.5%
Arrived on time, normal hours	83.5%	78.8%
Departures in bad weather	42,174	92,610

Of the carriers on this route, Delta Air Lines (1.7% cancelled against 3.1% for the other carriers at MSP) cancelled the fewest departures from MSP in bad weather and SkyWest Airlines (3.8% cancelled against 2.2% for the other carriers at MSP) the most. One more carrier flies this route but has too few bad-weather departures from MSP to compare.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MSP

All departures from MSP

Cancellation rates in bad weather at MSP for the airlines that fly MSP to DEN, against the other carriers at MSP in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Delta Air Lines	23,295	1.7%below the others	3.1%
Southwest Airlines	2,370	1.4%below the others	2.4%
United Airlines	1,807	2.0%about level	2.3%
SkyWest Airlines	9,126	3.8%above the others	2.2%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MSP and DEN, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MSP on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: MSP (airlines), DEN, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Southwest Airlines	6,064	77.9%	0.54%	-6 min	6.5%
Delta Air Lines	5,591	79.0%	0.55%	-6 min	6.2%
United Airlines	4,910	81.2%	0.81%	-9 min	7.7%
Frontier Airlines	1,935	80.3%	1.03%	-11 min	8.4%
SkyWest Airlines	285	91.4%	1.75%	-11 min	2.1%

Southwest Airlines flew 32.3% of the 18,785 flights listed. SkyWest Airlines cancelled 1.75% of its flights here against 0.54% for Southwest Airlines.

SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 13.5 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
UA2272 United Airlines	5:00 PM	1,026	68.3%
F91149 Frontier Airlines	6:00 AM	809	83.8%
DL1025 Delta Air Lines	2:27 PM	785	76.1%
DL2931 Delta Air Lines	6:45 PM	769	64.7%

F91149 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 83.8% of the time, 19.1 points more often than DL2931 (6:45 PM) at 64.7%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon80.0%

Tue80.2%

Wed80.1%

Thu77.8%

Fri78.4%

Sat81.7%

Sun79.2%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 3.9 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 17.7 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.3% against 79.5% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 18,785 MSP → DEN flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MSP airport DEN airport Return direction DEN → MSP

MSP→DEN

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why MSP → DEN flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MSP → DEN runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MSP

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology