Route profile
MSP→DCA
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Washington, 931 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 29% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,487 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → DCA arrives on time 77.2% of the time; the return trip, DCA → MSP, arrives on time 80.4% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → DCA spends 25.8 minutes on the ground on a 931-mile trip: 18.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 7.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at DCA.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to DCA differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to DCA struggles most at 5 AM: 70.8% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 21.1 points behind the 91.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 21.4 points.
MSP to DCA is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 7 PM: 81.8% arrive on time, 14.8 points ahead of the 67.0% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 14 points.
MSP to DCA holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 83.6% on time to their 77.8%, a 5.8 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 4.5 points.
In February, MSP to DCA runs 9.4 points below routes of similar length, 72.0% on time to 81.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 9.5 points.
PSA Airlines’ flights on MSP to DCA arrive on time 69.8% of the time, 5.5 points below the 75.3% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
MSP to DCA against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 AM departures | 70.8% | routes of similar length | 91.9% | −21.1 pts | 168 here, 108,538 there |
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 81.8% | routes of similar length | 67.0% | +14.8 pts | 143 here, 186,920 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 83.6% | routes of similar length | 77.8% | +5.8 pts | 803 here, 391,503 there |
| Month: February | 72.0% | routes of similar length | 81.4% | −9.4 pts | 532 here, 214,330 there |
| Airline: PSA Airlines | 69.8% | routes of similar length | 75.3% | −5.5 pts | 1,313 here, 16,620 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 931 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MSP → DCA flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MSP → DCA cancelled 174 of 7,487 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 43. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 62.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 69 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 174 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
108 cancellations, 62.1% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
46 cancellations, 26.4% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
20 cancellations, 11.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
174 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → DCA; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
48 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 7,487 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DCA after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.7% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.2% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.32% of the time and diverts 0.67% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,263 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 48 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,487 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → DCA flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 85.1% of the time, against 66.1% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 19.0 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 70.8% on time from 182 flights
- 6 AM: 84.1% on time from 177 flights
- 7 AM: 87.2% on time from 1,187 flights
- 8 AM to 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 84.8% on time from 1,040 flights
- 11 AM: 81.9% on time from 218 flights
- 12 PM: 78.1% on time from 535 flights
- 1 PM: too few flights to score
- 2 PM: 78.8% on time from 1,059 flights
- 3 PM: 68.7% on time from 257 flights
- 4 PM: too few flights to score
- 5 PM: 64.9% on time from 800 flights
- 6 PM: 67.6% on time from 890 flights
- 7 PM: 81.8% on time from 146 flights
- 8 PM: 72.8% on time from 948 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MSP → DCA runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → DCA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 5,314 | 79.3% | 1.26% | -8 min | 6.5% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,409 | 69.8% | 5.96% | -5 min | 13.2% |
| Republic Airways | 385 | 77.5% | 3.64% | -6 min | 5.1% |
| Envoy Air | 289 | 77.1% | 2.42% | -11 min | 8.6% |
Delta Air Lines flew 71.8% of the 7,397 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 5.96% of its flights here against 1.26% for Delta Air Lines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 9.5 percentage points more often than PSA Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL2983 (10:30 AM) arrived on time 85.6% of the time, 24.0 points more often than DL2962 (6:35 PM) at 61.6%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 10.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.2%
- Feb: 72.0%
- Mar: 74.1%
- Apr: 81.7%
- May: 79.5%
- Jun: 69.2%
- Jul: 68.4%
- Aug: 76.0%
- Sep: 86.3%
- Oct: 86.4%
- Nov: 83.8%
- Dec: 74.2%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 18.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 78.0% from 216 flights
- August 2023: 81.6% from 217 flights
- September 2023: 85.9% from 202 flights
- October 2023: 89.4% from 208 flights
- November 2023: 93.1% from 176 flights
- December 2023: 89.9% from 179 flights
- January 2024: 78.7% from 173 flights
- February 2024: 86.1% from 166 flights
- March 2024: 79.4% from 177 flights
- April 2024: 86.5% from 171 flights
- May 2024: 78.1% from 201 flights
- June 2024: 70.1% from 201 flights
- July 2024: 67.7% from 212 flights
- August 2024: 73.3% from 211 flights
- September 2024: 89.6% from 195 flights
- October 2024: 90.9% from 197 flights
- November 2024: 85.3% from 197 flights
- December 2024: 69.2% from 203 flights
- January 2025: 84.2% from 208 flights
- February 2025: 57.1% from 185 flights
- March 2025: 71.8% from 201 flights
- April 2025: 78.8% from 194 flights
- May 2025: 75.9% from 199 flights
- June 2025: 65.2% from 195 flights
- July 2025: 62.1% from 203 flights
- August 2025: 72.7% from 203 flights
- September 2025: 83.6% from 216 flights
- October 2025: 79.7% from 224 flights
- November 2025: 74.1% from 207 flights
- December 2025: 65.6% from 213 flights
- January 2026: 69.6% from 223 flights
- February 2026: 73.5% from 200 flights
- March 2026: 71.7% from 221 flights
- April 2026: 80.5% from 216 flights
- May 2026: 84.0% from 224 flights
- June 2026: 71.7% from 224 flights
- July 2026: 65.1% from 229 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 74.3% against 75.3% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,487 MSP → DCA flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed