Route profile
DCA→MSP
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Washington to Minneapolis, 931 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 34% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 7,487 flights. How this is calculated
DCA → MSP arrives on time 80.4% of the time; the return trip, MSP → DCA, arrives on time 77.2% of the time, a 3.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
DCA → MSP spends 25.7 minutes on the ground on a 931-mile trip: 19.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at DCA and 6.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at MSP.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where DCA to MSP differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
DCA to MSP struggles most at 9 AM: 76.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 7.8 points behind the 84.4% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
DCA to MSP is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 11 AM: 88.0% arrive on time, 7.2 points ahead of the 80.8% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7 points.
DCA to MSP holds up on Sundays better than routes of similar length do: 82.5% on time to their 74.0%, a 8.5 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.7 points.
May is kinder to DCA to MSP than to routes of similar length: 81.5% on time against 74.3%, 7.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.3 points.
PSA Airlines’ flights on DCA to MSP arrive on time 68.9% of the time, 6.5 points below the 75.4% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
DCA to MSP against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 AM departures | 76.6% | routes of similar length | 84.4% | −7.8 pts | 137 here, 148,343 there |
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 88.0% | routes of similar length | 80.8% | +7.2 pts | 573 here, 188,249 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 82.5% | routes of similar length | 74.0% | +8.5 pts | 999 here, 435,060 there |
| Month: May | 81.5% | routes of similar length | 74.3% | +7.2 pts | 617 here, 246,258 there |
| Airline: PSA Airlines | 68.9% | routes of similar length | 75.4% | −6.5 pts | 1,338 here, 16,595 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 931 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why DCA → MSP flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
DCA → MSP cancelled 154 of 7,487 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 49. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 56.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 86 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 154 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
87 cancellations, 56.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
48 cancellations, 31.2% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
19 cancellations, 12.3% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
154 coded cancellations were recorded on DCA → MSP; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
48 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 7,487 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MSP after arriving from DCA.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 32% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 14% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 8.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 5.4% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 2.06% of the time and diverts 0.24% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 7,315 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 48 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 7,487 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
DCA → MSP flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 88.3% of the time, against 70.0% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 18.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 90.8% on time from 1,094 flights
- 7 AM: 85.8% on time from 737 flights
- 8 AM: 85.5% on time from 316 flights
- 9 AM: 76.6% on time from 143 flights
- 10 AM: 82.2% on time from 448 flights
- 11 AM: 88.0% on time from 577 flights
- 12 PM: 80.1% on time from 549 flights
- 1 PM: 74.2% on time from 282 flights
- 2 PM: 78.5% on time from 668 flights
- 3 PM: 72.5% on time from 1,111 flights
- 4 PM to 5 PM: too few flights to score
- 6 PM: 75.0% on time from 867 flights
- 7 PM: 71.4% on time from 286 flights
- 8 PM: 64.0% on time from 125 flights
- 9 PM: too few flights to score
- 10 PM: 66.7% on time from 161 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why DCA → MSP runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for DCA → MSP. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 5,313 | 83.2% | 1.36% | -10 min | 7.2% |
| PSA Airlines | 1,411 | 68.9% | 4.61% | -2 min | 13.8% |
| Republic Airways | 383 | 82.4% | 3.13% | -11 min | 6.0% |
| Envoy Air | 290 | 81.8% | 1.38% | -8 min | 3.5% |
Delta Air Lines flew 71.8% of the 7,397 flights listed. PSA Airlines cancelled 4.61% of its flights here against 1.36% for Delta Air Lines.
Delta Air Lines arrived on time 14.3 percentage points more often than PSA Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 9.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 76.3%
- Feb: 78.8%
- Mar: 79.2%
- Apr: 81.3%
- May: 81.5%
- Jun: 73.6%
- Jul: 69.5%
- Aug: 78.8%
- Sep: 89.2%
- Oct: 88.7%
- Nov: 88.2%
- Dec: 82.5%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 19.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 78.3% from 216 flights
- August 2023: 82.3% from 217 flights
- September 2023: 88.1% from 202 flights
- October 2023: 86.5% from 208 flights
- November 2023: 88.6% from 175 flights
- December 2023: 97.8% from 180 flights
- January 2024: 81.0% from 172 flights
- February 2024: 94.6% from 166 flights
- March 2024: 87.4% from 177 flights
- April 2024: 87.8% from 172 flights
- May 2024: 83.5% from 200 flights
- June 2024: 76.5% from 201 flights
- July 2024: 72.1% from 212 flights
- August 2024: 76.7% from 211 flights
- September 2024: 92.3% from 195 flights
- October 2024: 92.4% from 198 flights
- November 2024: 91.8% from 196 flights
- December 2024: 84.2% from 203 flights
- January 2025: 77.3% from 208 flights
- February 2025: 67.8% from 186 flights
- March 2025: 82.7% from 201 flights
- April 2025: 74.5% from 194 flights
- May 2025: 81.6% from 198 flights
- June 2025: 73.4% from 196 flights
- July 2025: 73.1% from 203 flights
- August 2025: 77.3% from 203 flights
- September 2025: 87.6% from 218 flights
- October 2025: 87.4% from 224 flights
- November 2025: 84.3% from 207 flights
- December 2025: 67.6% from 212 flights
- January 2026: 71.6% from 223 flights
- February 2026: 75.4% from 200 flights
- March 2026: 69.0% from 221 flights
- April 2026: 82.3% from 215 flights
- May 2026: 79.6% from 224 flights
- June 2026: 71.0% from 224 flights
- July 2026: 55.3% from 229 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.6% against 80.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.1 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 7,487 DCA → MSP flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed