Route profile
MCO→RDU
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Orlando to Raleigh–Durham, 534 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 24% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,429 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
MCO → RDU arrives on time 75.6% of the time; the return trip, RDU → MCO, arrives on time 77.2% of the time.
MCO → RDU spends 25.4 minutes on the ground on a 534-mile trip: 18.5 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MCO and 6.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at RDU.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 91% of 4,023 comparable routes.
91.2% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 60.3% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MCO to RDU differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MCO to RDU struggles most at 5 PM: 58.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 12 points behind the 70.9% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 10.9 points.
Monday is the day MCO to RDU slips furthest against routes of similar length, 71.9% on time where they average 78.2%, 6.3 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 5.4 points.
In March, MCO to RDU runs 11.1 points below routes of similar length, 67.8% on time to 78.9%. Against all other routes the gap is 10.1 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on MCO to RDU than on its routes of similar length: 76.3% on time here, 69.8% there, 6.5 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 5.1 points.
Delta Air Lines’ flights on MCO to RDU arrive on time 76.8% of the time, 4.9 points below the 81.7% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 4.7 points.
MCO to RDU against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 5 PM departures | 58.9% | routes of similar length | 70.9% | −12.0 pts | 265 here, 115,894 there |
| Weekday: Monday | 71.9% | routes of similar length | 78.2% | −6.3 pts | 1,235 here, 243,773 there |
| Month: March | 67.8% | routes of similar length | 78.9% | −11.1 pts | 767 here, 132,149 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 76.3% | routes of similar length | 69.8% | +6.5 pts | 2,220 here, 63,159 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 76.8% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | −4.9 pts | 2,933 here, 374,770 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 534 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MCO → RDU flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MCO → RDU cancelled 116 of 8,429 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 73. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 54.3% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 134 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 116 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
63 cancellations, 54.3% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
45 cancellations, 38.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
8 cancellations, 6.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
116 coded cancellations were recorded on MCO → RDU; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
62 min late
against a median of 6 min early
MCO → RDU has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 68 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 8,429 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at RDU after arriving from MCO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 38% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 24% | High risk |
| 60 min | 17% | High risk |
| 90 min | 10% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.5% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.38% of the time and diverts 0.17% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,299 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 62 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,429 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MCO → RDU flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.2% of the time, against 60.3% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 30.9 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 91.6% on time from 336 flights
- 7 AM: 91.7% on time from 556 flights
- 8 AM: 90.8% on time from 834 flights
- 9 AM: 86.0% on time from 1,156 flights
- 10 AM: 84.2% on time from 188 flights
- 11 AM: 77.7% on time from 300 flights
- 12 PM: 78.4% on time from 308 flights
- 1 PM: 67.6% on time from 178 flights
- 2 PM: 75.7% on time from 707 flights
- 3 PM: 73.0% on time from 1,047 flights
- 4 PM: 64.3% on time from 305 flights
- 5 PM: 58.9% on time from 271 flights
- 6 PM: 61.0% on time from 226 flights
- 7 PM: 63.0% on time from 448 flights
- 8 PM: 61.5% on time from 900 flights
- 9 PM: 61.7% on time from 344 flights
- 10 PM: 57.7% on time from 286 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MCO → RDU runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MCO → RDU. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MCO → RDU, at 49.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.2% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 60.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,996 | 76.8% | 1.80% | -9 min | 10.5% |
| Southwest Airlines | 2,402 | 74.2% | 0.96% | -3 min | 9.1% |
| Frontier Airlines | 2,258 | 76.3% | 1.55% | -8 min | 10.6% |
| JetBlue | 360 | 67.1% | 0.83% | 0 min | 16.6% |
| Republic Airways | 305 | 81.0% | 0.00% | -9 min | 8.5% |
Delta Air Lines flew 36.0% of the 8,321 flights listed. Delta Air Lines cancelled 1.80% of its flights here against 0.00% for Republic Airways.
Republic Airways arrived on time 13.9 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL1337 (8:55 AM) arrived on time 86.6% of the time, 18.4 points more often than DL1370 (8:59 PM) at 68.2%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.3 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 78.0%
- Feb: 74.5%
- Mar: 67.8%
- Apr: 79.2%
- May: 75.4%
- Jun: 75.7%
- Jul: 63.2%
- Aug: 67.4%
- Sep: 81.1%
- Oct: 83.5%
- Nov: 86.2%
- Dec: 80.2%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 23.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 54.8% from 248 flights
- August 2023: 71.9% from 240 flights
- September 2023: 73.2% from 214 flights
- October 2023: 79.0% from 263 flights
- November 2023: 84.3% from 255 flights
- December 2023: 81.6% from 244 flights
- January 2024: 76.3% from 234 flights
- February 2024: 74.1% from 217 flights
- March 2024: 60.7% from 261 flights
- April 2024: 79.7% from 236 flights
- May 2024: 72.6% from 237 flights
- June 2024: 74.5% from 241 flights
- July 2024: 64.7% from 242 flights
- August 2024: 62.3% from 211 flights
- September 2024: 80.7% from 210 flights
- October 2024: 90.8% from 214 flights
- November 2024: 88.3% from 188 flights
- December 2024: 84.8% from 198 flights
- January 2025: 81.8% from 194 flights
- February 2025: 78.3% from 199 flights
- March 2025: 76.6% from 263 flights
- April 2025: 79.8% from 248 flights
- May 2025: 71.0% from 231 flights
- June 2025: 72.4% from 221 flights
- July 2025: 67.3% from 216 flights
- August 2025: 67.3% from 212 flights
- September 2025: 89.7% from 204 flights
- October 2025: 82.4% from 234 flights
- November 2025: 86.7% from 202 flights
- December 2025: 74.6% from 226 flights
- January 2026: 76.4% from 226 flights
- February 2026: 71.6% from 232 flights
- March 2026: 65.9% from 260 flights
- April 2026: 78.3% from 241 flights
- May 2026: 82.9% from 229 flights
- June 2026: 80.4% from 220 flights
- July 2026: 66.8% from 218 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.7% against 77.6% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,429 MCO → RDU flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed