Route profile
RDU→MCO
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Raleigh–Durham to Orlando, 534 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 25% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,425 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
RDU → MCO arrives on time 77.2% of the time; the return trip, MCO → RDU, arrives on time 75.6% of the time.
RDU → MCO spends 27.5 minutes on the ground on a 534-mile trip: 15.9 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at RDU and 11.7 minutes from touchdown to gate at MCO.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where RDU to MCO differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
RDU to MCO struggles most at 1 PM: 71.1% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.4 points behind the 79.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 6 points.
Sunday is the day RDU to MCO slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.1% on time where they average 75.4%, 3.3 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 2.7 points.
In August, RDU to MCO runs 9.2 points below routes of similar length, 68.3% on time to 77.5%. Against all other routes the gap is 8.2 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on RDU to MCO than on its routes of similar length: 74.5% on time here, 69.9% there, 4.6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 3.3 points.
Delta Air Lines’ flights on RDU to MCO arrive on time 79.1% of the time, 2.6 points below the 81.7% it manages on its routes of similar length. Against all other routes the gap is 2.4 points.
RDU to MCO against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 71.1% | routes of similar length | 79.5% | −8.4 pts | 277 here, 101,306 there |
| Weekday: Sunday | 72.1% | routes of similar length | 75.4% | −3.3 pts | 1,304 here, 240,403 there |
| Month: August | 68.3% | routes of similar length | 77.5% | −9.2 pts | 646 here, 137,119 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 74.5% | routes of similar length | 69.9% | +4.6 pts | 2,211 here, 63,168 there |
| Airline: Delta Air Lines | 79.1% | routes of similar length | 81.7% | −2.6 pts | 2,934 here, 374,769 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 534 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why RDU → MCO flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
RDU → MCO cancelled 136 of 8,425 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 62. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 51.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 120 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 136 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
70 cancellations, 51.5% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
56 cancellations, 41.2% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
10 cancellations, 7.4% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
136 coded cancellations were recorded on RDU → MCO; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
59 min late
against a median of 6 min early
RDU → MCO has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 65 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.
Percentiles over 8,425 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MCO after arriving from RDU.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 37% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 16% | High risk |
| 90 min | 9.7% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 6.3% | Some risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.61% of the time and diverts 0.19% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,273 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 59 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,425 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
RDU → MCO flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.7% of the time, against 64.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 26.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 91.6% on time from 380 flights
- 6 AM: 92.2% on time from 679 flights
- 7 AM: 89.6% on time from 1,310 flights
- 8 AM: 91.3% on time from 265 flights
- 9 AM: too few flights to score
- 10 AM: 88.4% on time from 147 flights
- 11 AM: 81.5% on time from 535 flights
- 12 PM: 78.0% on time from 1,047 flights
- 1 PM: 71.1% on time from 280 flights
- 2 PM: 75.5% on time from 521 flights
- 3 PM: 71.0% on time from 265 flights
- 4 PM: 65.4% on time from 181 flights
- 5 PM: 63.7% on time from 634 flights
- 6 PM: 64.2% on time from 1,005 flights
- 7 PM: 65.0% on time from 496 flights
- 8 PM: 64.2% on time from 138 flights
- 9 PM: 69.2% on time from 216 flights
- 10 PM: 64.6% on time from 235 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why RDU → MCO runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for RDU → MCO. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on RDU → MCO, at 46.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.7% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 64.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,996 | 79.1% | 1.77% | -7 min | 8.8% |
| Southwest Airlines | 2,395 | 78.9% | 1.21% | -5 min | 7.8% |
| Frontier Airlines | 2,260 | 74.5% | 2.08% | -8 min | 12.3% |
| JetBlue | 361 | 67.3% | 1.39% | -3 min | 16.9% |
| Republic Airways | 305 | 82.4% | 0.33% | -12 min | 6.0% |
Delta Air Lines flew 36.0% of the 8,317 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.08% of its flights here against 0.33% for Republic Airways.
Republic Airways arrived on time 15.1 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 10.0 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 77.5%
- Feb: 79.1%
- Mar: 74.2%
- Apr: 83.6%
- May: 74.0%
- Jun: 74.8%
- Jul: 67.0%
- Aug: 68.3%
- Sep: 80.2%
- Oct: 86.1%
- Nov: 86.0%
- Dec: 79.3%
July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 19.1 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 53.8% from 248 flights
- August 2023: 67.8% from 240 flights
- September 2023: 69.8% from 214 flights
- October 2023: 83.6% from 263 flights
- November 2023: 86.3% from 256 flights
- December 2023: 81.1% from 244 flights
- January 2024: 74.2% from 230 flights
- February 2024: 80.2% from 212 flights
- March 2024: 69.8% from 261 flights
- April 2024: 83.3% from 237 flights
- May 2024: 69.5% from 237 flights
- June 2024: 71.7% from 242 flights
- July 2024: 65.9% from 242 flights
- August 2024: 64.2% from 211 flights
- September 2024: 83.0% from 210 flights
- October 2024: 89.3% from 215 flights
- November 2024: 87.8% from 189 flights
- December 2024: 85.3% from 198 flights
- January 2025: 83.9% from 194 flights
- February 2025: 80.3% from 200 flights
- March 2025: 80.5% from 263 flights
- April 2025: 85.4% from 247 flights
- May 2025: 76.3% from 232 flights
- June 2025: 76.2% from 220 flights
- July 2025: 78.1% from 216 flights
- August 2025: 72.8% from 212 flights
- September 2025: 88.2% from 204 flights
- October 2025: 86.3% from 234 flights
- November 2025: 83.7% from 203 flights
- December 2025: 72.1% from 226 flights
- January 2026: 75.2% from 226 flights
- February 2026: 77.0% from 232 flights
- March 2026: 72.3% from 259 flights
- April 2026: 82.1% from 241 flights
- May 2026: 76.3% from 229 flights
- June 2026: 76.7% from 220 flights
- July 2026: 71.8% from 218 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.8% against 80.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.0 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,425 RDU → MCO flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed