Route profile
JFK→PHX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from New York to Phoenix, 2,153 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 48% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 8,588 flights. How this is calculated
JFK → PHX arrives on time 79.9% of the time; the return trip, PHX → JFK, arrives on time 78.8% of the time.
JFK → PHX spends 35.5 minutes on the ground on a 2,153-mile trip: 27.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at JFK and 8.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What sets this route apart
Where JFK to PHX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
JFK to PHX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 1 PM: 84.5% arrive on time, 8.8 points ahead of the 75.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.4 points.
JFK to PHX struggles most at 7 PM: 61.9% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 6.6 points behind the 68.5% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 5.9 points.
March is kinder to JFK to PHX than to routes of similar length: 84.6% on time against 79.3%, 5.3 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.7 points.
JetBlue’s flights on JFK to PHX arrive on time 70.2% of the time, 5.1 points below the 75.3% it manages on its routes of similar length.
American Airlines does better on JFK to PHX than on its routes of similar length: 83.2% on time here, 78.3% there, 4.9 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 8.1 points.
JFK to PHX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 1 PM departures | 84.5% | routes of similar length | 75.7% | +8.8 pts | 303 here, 50,380 there |
| Hour: 7 PM departures | 61.9% | routes of similar length | 68.5% | −6.6 pts | 310 here, 46,322 there |
| Month: March | 84.6% | routes of similar length | 79.3% | +5.3 pts | 772 here, 89,020 there |
| Airline: JetBlue | 70.2% | routes of similar length | 75.3% | −5.1 pts | 1,458 here, 77,834 there |
| Airline: American Airlines | 83.2% | routes of similar length | 78.3% | +4.9 pts | 4,205 here, 240,576 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 2,153 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why JFK → PHX flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
JFK → PHX cancelled 151 of 8,588 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 57. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 63.6% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 89 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 151 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
96 cancellations, 63.6% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
40 cancellations, 26.5% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
15 cancellations, 9.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
151 coded cancellations were recorded on JFK → PHX; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
42 min late
against a median of 11 min early
Percentiles over 8,588 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHX after arriving from JFK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 33% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.1% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.76% of the time and diverts 0.26% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 8,415 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 42 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 8,588 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
JFK → PHX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 86.8% of the time, against 70.6% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 16.2 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 5 AM: too few flights to score
- 6 AM: 88.0% on time from 950 flights
- 7 AM: 87.6% on time from 585 flights
- 8 AM: 85.6% on time from 1,283 flights
- 9 AM: 82.7% on time from 379 flights
- 10 AM: 83.2% on time from 141 flights
- 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 83.9% on time from 839 flights
- 1 PM: 84.5% on time from 305 flights
- 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 82.2% on time from 157 flights
- 4 PM: 75.2% on time from 649 flights
- 5 PM: 75.8% on time from 1,547 flights
- 6 PM: 75.6% on time from 701 flights
- 7 PM: 61.9% on time from 329 flights
- 8 PM: 69.2% on time from 581 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why JFK → PHX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for JFK → PHX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 4,282 | 83.2% | 1.54% | -12 min | 6.1% |
| Delta Air Lines | 2,810 | 80.1% | 1.81% | -11 min | 6.6% |
| JetBlue | 1,496 | 70.2% | 2.27% | -5 min | 11.6% |
American Airlines flew 49.9% of the 8,588 flights listed.
American Airlines arrived on time 13.0 percentage points more often than JetBlue on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL791 (8:05 AM) arrived on time 84.7% of the time, 23.9 points more often than B6135 (8:00 PM) at 60.8%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.5%
- Feb: 81.4%
- Mar: 84.6%
- Apr: 83.1%
- May: 77.9%
- Jun: 75.9%
- Jul: 69.0%
- Aug: 78.9%
- Sep: 82.2%
- Oct: 81.6%
- Nov: 82.7%
- Dec: 78.3%
July is historically the weakest month and March the strongest, a spread of 15.6 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 65.9% from 184 flights
- August 2023: 77.7% from 186 flights
- September 2023: 81.3% from 180 flights
- October 2023: 79.2% from 259 flights
- November 2023: 86.3% from 249 flights
- December 2023: 89.6% from 231 flights
- January 2024: 85.2% from 225 flights
- February 2024: 89.0% from 220 flights
- March 2024: 84.1% from 235 flights
- April 2024: 82.4% from 227 flights
- May 2024: 69.5% from 234 flights
- June 2024: 79.2% from 201 flights
- July 2024: 66.8% from 203 flights
- August 2024: 72.9% from 193 flights
- September 2024: 85.9% from 193 flights
- October 2024: 90.5% from 232 flights
- November 2024: 84.6% from 253 flights
- December 2024: 83.2% from 245 flights
- January 2025: 89.9% from 239 flights
- February 2025: 75.3% from 220 flights
- March 2025: 88.3% from 258 flights
- April 2025: 80.4% from 242 flights
- May 2025: 82.8% from 238 flights
- June 2025: 74.9% from 204 flights
- July 2025: 72.6% from 203 flights
- August 2025: 85.5% from 203 flights
- September 2025: 79.4% from 197 flights
- October 2025: 75.2% from 235 flights
- November 2025: 76.9% from 247 flights
- December 2025: 63.6% from 270 flights
- January 2026: 79.0% from 276 flights
- February 2026: 79.9% from 248 flights
- March 2026: 81.6% from 289 flights
- April 2026: 85.9% from 278 flights
- May 2026: 80.8% from 269 flights
- June 2026: 74.2% from 257 flights
- July 2026: 70.0% from 265 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.5% against 82.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 8,588 JFK → PHX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed