Flight profile · American Airlines
AA2829
New York (JFK) to Phoenix (PHX) · scheduled 12:59 PM – 3:22 PM
How AA2829 performs
1,121 operations, July 2023 – July 2026.
AA2829 arrived on time 84.0% of the time, against 79.9% for all JFK → PHX flights, so this departure is 4.1 percentage points better than the route as a whole.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 1,121 operations, July 2023 – July 2026 · If AA2829 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
Where AA2829 is right now
A live reading, only if you ask for it. It is not part of the reliability record above.
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Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA2829 | 84.0% | 0.80% | -15 min | 5.4% | 1,121 |
| American Airlines on JFK → PHX | 83.2% | 1.54% | -12 min | 6.1% | 4,282 |
| All JFK → PHX flights | 79.9% | 1.76% | -11 min | 7.2% | 8,588 |
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
Why AA2829 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for AA2829 on JFK → PHX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies AA2829 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
The aircraft flying AA2829 came in 15 or more minutes late on 9% of the departures where its previous flight is known. There are not enough departures in both groups to say how the flight left after a late one and after an on-time one.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into JFK just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 1,018 of 1,114 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late |
|---|---|
| AA2829 | 9% |
| Network, same turn | 18% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 45 to 59 minutes. How often AA2829’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is lower than the network’s. There are not enough departures in both groups to compare how it left.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves JFK late, does that still matter by the time it reaches PHX?
AA2829 pushes back an average of 10.9 minutes late and reaches the gate at PHX an average of 4.8 minutes early. The 15.7 minutes between those two figures are slack the published schedule already carries, which is why a late pushback on this flight does not reliably become a late arrival. Its 21.9 minutes on the taxiways at JFK is about what any departure from the airport in that hour spends.
On arrival at PHX, AA2829 spends 6.5 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is 1.0 minutes shorter than a typical PHX arrival (7.5 min).
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached PHX. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 15,883 departures from JFK scheduled in the clock hour AA2829 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at PHX (598,496 flights), not just AA2829’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
The hour it leaves JFK
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. AA2829 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 15,883 departures from JFK are scheduled in the 12 PM–1 PM hour over the period, against 351,635 across the whole day.
AA2829 is scheduled out of JFK at 12:59 PM, in the 12 PM–1 PM bank. Departures from JFK in that hour arrive on time 82.4% of the time against 77.0% across the airport’s whole day — the slot alone is worth 5.4 points better before anything about this particular flight is considered.
The two airport figures cover every departure from JFK to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
By day of week
Does AA2829 run worse on particular days?
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 10.5 percentage points.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Days with fewer than 120 operations are not scored.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
32 min late
against a median of 15 min early
Percentiles over 1,121 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Other flights on this route
Same airports, same journey, different odds of arriving on time.
| Flight | Airline | On time | Median arrival | Operations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA1487 | American Airlines | 89.4% | 14 min early | 913 |
| DL791 | Delta Air Lines | 84.7% | 11 min early | 785 |
| AA2829 this flight | American Airlines | 84.0% | 15 min early | 1,121 |
| DL798 | Delta Air Lines | 75.5% | 7 min early | 782 |
| B6135 | JetBlue | 60.8% | 6 min late | 669 |
Every departure listed carries at least 600 operations, so the comparison is between figures that mean something. AA2829 is placed in the same ordering rather than left out of it; the rows around it are the most punctual departures on the route, not all of them, so this is a comparison and not a rank. Schedules change; confirm the departure still operates before booking around this.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 1,121 records of AA2829 operating JFK → PHX, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
Analysis last recomputed