FlyerIntel Research
Which Airlines Cancel the Most in Winter
PSA Airlines cancelled 5.37% of its flights in December to February, PSA Airlines had the widest gap from its own other months.
Published October 18, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – July 2026
Summary
2.03% of scheduled flights were cancelled in winter against 1.36% in the other months. PSA Airlines was highest in winter at 5.37%; PSA Airlines had the widest gap, 2.5 points.
Key findings
- 2.03% of scheduled flights were cancelled in December to February, 1.36% in March to November.
- PSA Airlines had the highest winter cancellation rate, 5.37%.
- PSA Airlines had the widest gap between winter and its other months, 2.5 points.
- Frontier Airlines changed least, 1.68% in winter against 2.21% otherwise.
- Winter 2025–26 cancelled 2.82% of scheduled flights, against 1.64% in the earlier winters.
Winter against the rest of the year
Across the 14 airlines listed, 2.03% of scheduled flights were cancelled in December, January and February, against 1.36% in the other nine months, 1.5 times as many. 13 of the 14 cancelled a larger share in winter. PSA Airlines had the highest winter rate, 5.37%; PSA Airlines the widest gap, 2.5 points above its own rate in the other months. 1 airline cancelled at least twice the share in winter. Frontier Airlines changed least: 1.68% in winter against 2.21% the rest of the year.
Gap between winter and the other months, by airline
Every airline in winter and in the other months
| Airline | Cancellation rate, winter | Cancellation rate, other months | Gap, points | Winter as a multiple of other months | On-time arrival, winter | On-time arrival, other months | Winter flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSA Airlines | 5.37% | 2.84% | +2.5 | 1.9× | 74.1% | 76.3% | 167,546 |
| Republic Airways | 3.82% | 3.09% | +0.7 | 1.2× | 81.6% | 82.5% | 233,985 |
| Alaska Airlines | 2.90% | 0.82% | +2.1 | 3.5× | 79.1% | 78.8% | 180,094 |
| JetBlue | 2.80% | 2.01% | +0.8 | 1.4× | 70.5% | 73.1% | 173,127 |
| Spirit Airlines | 2.39% | 1.96% | +0.4 | 1.2× | 75.8% | 75.3% | 150,592 |
| Envoy Air | 2.27% | 1.67% | +0.6 | 1.4× | 80.8% | 79.9% | 198,076 |
| American Airlines | 2.17% | 1.64% | +0.5 | 1.3× | 77.7% | 74.0% | 679,732 |
| SkyWest Airlines | 1.99% | 1.14% | +0.9 | 1.7× | 78.3% | 81.0% | 554,633 |
| United Airlines | 1.74% | 1.06% | +0.7 | 1.6× | 81.9% | 79.1% | 548,650 |
| Frontier Airlines | 1.68% | 2.21% | -0.5 | 0.8× | 74.9% | 70.9% | 139,656 |
| Delta Air Lines | 1.43% | 1.08% | +0.3 | 1.3× | 82.1% | 82.1% | 696,083 |
| Southwest Airlines | 1.35% | 0.71% | +0.6 | 1.9× | 81.4% | 77.3% | 993,011 |
| Allegiant Air | 1.16% | 0.87% | +0.3 | 1.3× | 76.1% | 75.6% | 85,928 |
| Hawaiian Airlines | 1.09% | 0.97% | +0.1 | 1.1× | 80.6% | 84.6% | 45,452 |
Ordered by winter cancellation rate. Winter is December, January and February of the 3 complete winters in the data; the other months are March to November of every year in the data. Cancellation rate is cancelled over scheduled flights; on-time arrival is arrivals within 15 minutes over completed flights, so the two use different denominators. Airlines need 10,000 scheduled flights outside winter, 3,000 in winter and 6 winter months of data. 1 covered airline is left out for want of flights.
Winter 2025–26 against the winters before it
| Airline | Cancellation rate, Winter 2025–26 | Cancellation rate, earlier winters | Change, points | Scheduled flights, Winter 2025–26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirit Airlines | 6.30% | 1.20% | +5.1 | 35,227 |
| JetBlue | 5.57% | 1.45% | +4.1 | 56,540 |
| Republic Airways | 6.04% | 2.50% | +3.5 | 87,233 |
| American Airlines | 3.84% | 1.31% | +2.5 | 229,415 |
| Delta Air Lines | 2.94% | 0.65% | +2.3 | 238,537 |
| PSA Airlines | 6.63% | 4.70% | +1.9 | 57,719 |
| Frontier Airlines | 2.60% | 1.22% | +1.4 | 47,162 |
| Envoy Air | 2.49% | 2.14% | +0.4 | 72,320 |
| SkyWest Airlines | 2.16% | 1.90% | +0.3 | 197,055 |
| Allegiant Air | 1.26% | 1.11% | +0.1 | 29,566 |
| Southwest Airlines | 1.36% | 1.34% | 0.0 | 322,860 |
| United Airlines | 1.44% | 1.90% | -0.5 | 189,452 |
| Hawaiian Airlines | 0.69% | 1.16% | -0.5 | 6,705 |
| Alaska Airlines | 1.57% | 3.78% | -2.2 | 71,551 |
Winter 2025–26 is December 2025 with the January and February after it, the latest winter whose three months are all in the data. The earlier winters are the complete winters before it, pooled. Airlines need 1,000 scheduled flights in Winter 2025–26 and 3,000 in the earlier winters. All listed airlines together: 2.82% in Winter 2025–26, 1.64% in the earlier winters.
The latest winter
Spirit Airlines moved the most upward, from 1.20% in the earlier winters to 6.30% in Winter 2025–26. Alaska Airlines moved the most downward, from 3.78% to 1.57%. 11 of 14 airlines cancelled a larger share in Winter 2025–26 than in the winters before it.
Whether the airlines that cancel in winter also cancel in summer
Ranked by winter cancellation rate and by the rate in the other months, the 14 airlines have a clear relation (rank correlation 0.63). Alaska Airlines showed the largest multiple, 3.5 times its other-month rate. A multiple is large when the rate in the other months is small, so the gap in points and the multiple can point to different airlines.
What this does not show
The data runs from July 2023 to July 2026. A winter with its three months in the data counts; a winter cut off at either end does not. The months outside winter are not balanced across the calendar, because the data starts and ends in summer. Airlines fly different networks, and an airline based in the north has more exposure to winter weather than one that flies mostly in the south; the monthly table has no cause for a cancellation, so this report does not say how much of a gap is weather. Winter here covers 3 winters, so a single severe storm weighs heavily in an airline’s rate, and the report on the latest winter against earlier ones is a comparison of two periods, not a forecast.
Pages for what this report covers
Airlines: PSA Airlines · Frontier Airlines · Alaska Airlines · SkyWest Airlines · JetBlue · Republic Airways
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,708,321 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through July 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Cancellations are counted from the monthly rows of each covered airline: cancelled flights over scheduled flights, with winter months pooled and the other nine months pooled across every year in the data. A winter counts when its December, January and February are all in the data. On-time arrival is a separate share, arrivals within 15 minutes over completed flights.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight. A cancellation is attributed to the airline that was to operate the flight, as the DOT records it, which for a regional flight is the regional carrier.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis