FlyerIntel Research
Route Length and Cancellation Rates
Cancellation rate by route length, and the same comparison inside each origin airport.
Published October 18, 2026 · Source period July 2023 – July 2026
Summary
1.61% of scheduled flights were cancelled on routes under 750 miles, against 1.12% on routes of 2,000 miles and over. Inside one origin airport, short routes cancelled a larger share than long routes at 33 of 49 airports.
Key findings
- Under 750 miles: 1.61% of scheduled flights cancelled across 842 routes.
- 2,000 miles and over: 1.12% across 264 routes.
- 33 of 49 origin airports cancelled a larger share of their short-route flights than of their long-route flights.
- DCA had the largest gap between its short and long routes, +2.0 points.
- Ranked by length and by cancellation rate, the routes show some relation (-0.24).
Short routes against long ones
Of the 2,291 routes listed, which together carried 14,249,798 scheduled flights, 1.46% were cancelled. The rate on the shortest routes was 1.4 times the rate on the longest. Ranking the listed routes once by distance and once by cancellation rate gives some relation (rank correlation -0.24, negative: longer routes cancel a smaller share).
Cancellation rate by route length
Every route length band
| Route length | Routes | Scheduled flights | Cancellation rate | Median route’s cancellation rate | On-time arrival |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 750 miles | 842 | 6,360,262 | 1.61% | 1.33% | 78.5% |
| 750–1,499 miles | 899 | 5,390,134 | 1.46% | 1.18% | 77.3% |
| 1,500–1,999 miles | 286 | 1,331,876 | 1.08% | 0.84% | 77.9% |
| 2,000 miles and over | 264 | 1,167,526 | 1.12% | 0.97% | 78.7% |
Cancellation rate is cancelled flights over scheduled flights, pooled over the routes in the band. The median column takes each route’s own rate and reports the middle one, so a few very busy routes do not set it. On-time arrival is arrivals within 15 minutes over completed flights, a different denominator. Routes need 750 scheduled flights; 479 routes below that are left out.
The same comparison inside each origin airport
| Origin | Cancellation rate, short routes | Cancellation rate, long routes | Gap, points | Short-route flights | Long-route flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCA | 3.02% | 1.03% | +2.0 | 192,324 | 18,418 |
| JFK | 3.52% | 1.54% | +2.0 | 88,710 | 125,889 |
| LGA | 3.61% | 2.08% | +1.5 | 176,008 | 14,618 |
| BOS | 2.67% | 1.22% | +1.5 | 168,501 | 101,251 |
| EWR | 3.34% | 1.92% | +1.4 | 128,794 | 93,777 |
| RDU | 2.06% | 0.71% | +1.3 | 137,794 | 12,469 |
| MKE | 2.07% | 0.74% | +1.3 | 51,748 | 5,279 |
| PIT | 1.97% | 0.69% | +1.3 | 86,249 | 9,110 |
| IND | 2.04% | 0.78% | +1.3 | 76,299 | 9,872 |
| CLE | 2.25% | 1.03% | +1.2 | 78,989 | 11,271 |
| CMH | 1.84% | 0.72% | +1.1 | 87,910 | 10,948 |
| ORD | 2.09% | 1.03% | +1.1 | 300,955 | 106,658 |
| HOU | 1.39% | 0.47% | +0.9 | 61,157 | 3,588 |
| DTW | 1.53% | 0.65% | +0.9 | 175,110 | 44,604 |
| CLT | 1.80% | 0.94% | +0.9 | 286,975 | 46,268 |
| PHL | 2.24% | 1.42% | +0.8 | 124,403 | 48,808 |
| MSY | 1.50% | 0.70% | +0.8 | 86,955 | 12,640 |
| DFW | 2.51% | 1.73% | +0.8 | 145,809 | 41,248 |
| BNA | 1.52% | 0.79% | +0.7 | 181,450 | 26,212 |
| STL | 1.25% | 0.55% | +0.7 | 98,830 | 10,487 |
| IAH | 1.75% | 1.06% | +0.7 | 69,019 | 32,877 |
| FLL | 1.63% | 0.96% | +0.7 | 53,854 | 24,850 |
| MIA | 1.41% | 0.77% | +0.6 | 73,351 | 45,176 |
| ATL | 1.46% | 0.83% | +0.6 | 455,994 | 107,582 |
| IAD | 1.60% | 0.97% | +0.6 | 63,612 | 39,141 |
| MDW | 1.42% | 0.87% | +0.5 | 97,968 | 28,714 |
| TPA | 1.80% | 1.30% | +0.5 | 58,097 | 27,502 |
| RSW | 1.47% | 1.04% | +0.4 | 18,307 | 2,989 |
| MCO | 1.40% | 1.03% | +0.4 | 88,598 | 53,440 |
| BWI | 1.49% | 1.16% | +0.3 | 110,065 | 29,865 |
| MSP | 0.91% | 0.59% | +0.3 | 92,475 | 28,949 |
| SAT | 1.75% | 1.46% | +0.3 | 36,039 | 6,505 |
| SJC | 0.69% | 0.54% | +0.1 | 101,255 | 13,126 |
| SAN | 1.04% | 1.12% | -0.1 | 120,856 | 78,738 |
| SNA | 0.93% | 1.04% | -0.1 | 68,792 | 18,282 |
| LAS | 0.85% | 0.97% | -0.1 | 213,091 | 149,526 |
| SFO | 0.92% | 1.05% | -0.1 | 165,610 | 165,897 |
| AUS | 1.50% | 1.64% | -0.1 | 49,234 | 33,231 |
| OAK | 0.74% | 0.93% | -0.2 | 79,717 | 5,997 |
| SMF | 0.60% | 0.89% | -0.3 | 111,296 | 20,765 |
| ONT | 0.65% | 0.94% | -0.3 | 41,253 | 6,270 |
| PHX | 0.57% | 0.91% | -0.3 | 206,093 | 100,922 |
| SEA | 0.70% | 1.06% | -0.4 | 82,801 | 153,022 |
| BUR | 1.30% | 1.67% | -0.4 | 63,717 | 3,534 |
| LAX | 0.52% | 0.97% | -0.4 | 164,169 | 225,805 |
| DEN | 0.89% | 1.33% | -0.4 | 165,430 | 95,068 |
| SLC | 0.51% | 0.99% | -0.5 | 147,056 | 47,789 |
| PDX | 0.66% | 1.16% | -0.5 | 51,753 | 45,702 |
| TUS | 0.33% | 1.30% | -1.0 | 35,379 | 2,463 |
Short is routes under 750 miles; long is routes of 1,500–1,999 miles and 2,000 miles and over together. Each rate is the pooled rate of that airport’s routes in the group. An origin needs 2,000 scheduled flights on each side; 15 origins do not have both and are left out. Ordered by the gap, the short-route rate less the long-route rate.
What the origin comparison shows
Short routes cancelled a larger share than long routes at 33 of the 49 airports listed. DCA had the largest gap, with 3.02% of short flights cancelled against 1.03% of long ones; TUS had the smallest, -1.0 points. Comparing within an airport holds its weather and its runways fixed, which a comparison of whole length bands cannot do.
The long routes that cancelled the most
| Route | Distance, miles | Cancellation rate | Scheduled flights |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUR → JFK | 2,465 | 4.10% | 757 |
| JFK → BUR | 2,465 | 3.43% | 757 |
| EWR → SMF | 2,500 | 2.61% | 881 |
| SMF → EWR | 2,500 | 2.61% | 881 |
| BUR → ATL | 1,941 | 2.59% | 771 |
Routes of 1,500–1,999 miles and 2,000 miles and over with at least 750 scheduled flights, ordered by cancellation rate.
What this does not show
A route is one direction. Distance is the length the DOT records for the airport pair, not the time in the air. Routes of different lengths are flown by different airlines on different schedules, and these aggregates carry no cause for a cancellation, so the report does not say why a gap exists. The comparison pools the whole span of the data, which includes winter storms; a route that is busy in the Northeast winter weighs heavily in the shortest band.
Pages for what this report covers
Methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 21,708,321 individual flight records in the US Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance dataset, covering July 2023 through July 2026. Following BTS methodology, a flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after its scheduled arrival time. Cancelled and diverted flights have no arrival time and are excluded from on-time rates rather than counted as late; cancellation rates are reported separately. Full definitions are published at /methodology/. Routes are read from the all-period route aggregate, joined to the route’s length in miles, and kept when both airports are covered and the route has the flight floor. Cancellation rate is cancelled flights over scheduled flights of the same route rows, pooled within a length band or an origin; the bands are the site’s shared distance bands. On-time arrival is a separate share over completed flights.
Limitations
The source dataset covers scheduled domestic flights operated by carriers above the DOT reporting threshold; smaller carriers and international flights are not included. Flights sold under a mainline brand but flown by a regional carrier are attributed to the operating carrier, which is how the DOT records them. Past performance describes what has happened and is not a prediction about any individual flight.
Sources
- FlyerIntel analysis — FlyerIntel · source
- Reporting Carrier On-Time Performance — US Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics · source
Full FlyerIntel methodology · Report a problem with this analysis