Flight profile · Republic Airways
YX4551
Washington (DCA) to New York (JFK) · scheduled 6:00 AM – 1:59 PM
How YX4551 performs
666 operations, July 2023 – July 2026.
YX4551 arrived on time 80.7% of the time, against 78.7% for all DCA → JFK flights, so this departure is 2.0 percentage points better than the route as a whole. Against Republic Airways’ own flights on this route it is 2.1 points better.
YX4551’s scheduled departure has moved during the period FlyerIntel has on file: it typically left around 12:30 PM earlier on, and around 6:00 AM more recently — a 390-minute shift, not the few minutes of day-to-day rounding every published schedule carries. Confirm the current departure time before booking around an older listing.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 666 operations, July 2023 – July 2026 · If YX4551 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
Where YX4551 is right now
A live reading, only if you ask for it. It is not part of the reliability record above.
Ask for the position of YX4551 right now, if receivers on the ground are hearing it. Nothing is requested until you press the button.
Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YX4551 | 80.7% | 1.80% | -9 min | 5.5% | 666 |
| Republic Airways on DCA → JFK | 78.6% | 4.77% | -8 min | 8.3% | 6,735 |
| All DCA → JFK flights | 78.7% | 4.60% | -8 min | 8.3% | 7,711 |
YX4551 has cancelled 1.80% of its scheduled departures (12 of 666), against 4.60% for all DCA → JFK flights — this specific departure cancels 2.8 percentage points less often than the route as a whole. Different flight numbers on the same route can carry different aircraft, crews and schedules, so this is a fact about YX4551 specifically, not about the route it flies.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
Why YX4551 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for YX4551 on DCA → JFK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies YX4551 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
When the aircraft came in 15 or more minutes late, YX4551 pushed back an average of 11 minutes late; when it came in on time or early, an average of 2 minutes late.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into DCA just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 617 of 655 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late | Left 15+ late after a late inbound | Left 15+ late after an on-time inbound |
|---|---|---|---|
| YX4551 | 22% | 21% | 8% |
| Network, same turn | 17% | 68% | 9% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 60 to 89 minutes. How often YX4551’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is higher than the network’s and, once the aircraft was late, how often YX4551 left 15 or more minutes late is lower than the network’s.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves DCA late, does that still matter by the time it reaches JFK?
YX4551 pushes back an average of 5.0 minutes late and reaches the gate at JFK an average of 2.0 minutes late. The 3.0 minutes between those two figures are slack the published schedule already carries, which is why a late pushback on this flight does not reliably become a late arrival. It spends 24.9 minutes on the taxiways at DCA, 7.0 minutes longer than a typical DCA departure in the same hour.
On arrival at JFK, YX4551 spends 12.6 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is 1.1 minutes longer than a typical JFK arrival (11.5 min).
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached JFK. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 31,497 departures from DCA scheduled in the clock hour YX4551 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at JFK (351,546 flights), not just YX4551’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
The hour it leaves DCA
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. YX4551 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 31,497 departures from DCA are scheduled in the 6 AM–7 AM hour over the period, against 435,076 across the whole day.
YX4551 is scheduled out of DCA at 6:00 AM, in the 6 AM–7 AM bank. Departures from DCA in that hour arrive on time 90.8% of the time against 76.5% across the airport’s whole day — the slot alone is worth 14.3 points better before anything about this particular flight is considered.
The two airport figures cover every departure from DCA to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
Other routes YX4551 has flown
A flight number is a slot in a schedule, and carriers reassign it. These are the other city pairs this number served in the analysis period.
| Route | Operated | Flights | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→LGA Chicago to New York | December 26, 2025 – April 6, 2026 | 93 | 76.3% |
| BOS→PHL Boston to Philadelphia | February 15, 2025 – April 4, 2026 | 11 | — |
| BDL→ORD Hartford to Chicago | December 3–17, 2025 | 15 | — |
| GRR→DCA Grand Rapids to Washington | November 23–30, 2025 | 2 | — |
| CMH→ORD Columbus to Chicago | November 27, 2025 | 1 | — |
| STL→ORD St. Louis to Chicago | November 3–19, 2025 | 17 | — |
| ORD→STL Chicago to St. Louis | March 6, 2025 – April 3, 2025 | 29 | — |
| PVD→PHL Providence/Warwick to Philadelphia | January 7, 2025 – February 12, 2025 | 12 | — |
| ORD→IND Chicago to Indianapolis | January 4, 2025 | 1 | — |
| BTV→PHL Burlington to Philadelphia | December 5–18, 2024 | 12 | — |
| PHL→BTV Philadelphia to Burlington | December 5–18, 2024 | 12 | — |
| CHS→PHL Charleston to Philadelphia | November 30, 2024 | 1 | — |
| PHL→SBN Philadelphia to South Bend | November 8–10, 2024 | 2 | — |
| SBN→PHL South Bend to Philadelphia | November 8–10, 2024 | 2 | — |
| PHL→RDU Philadelphia to Raleigh–Durham | March 5, 2024 – April 3, 2024 | 26 | — |
| RDU→PHL Raleigh–Durham to Philadelphia | March 5, 2024 – April 3, 2024 | 26 | — |
| ORD→SDF Chicago to Louisville | January 10, 2024 – February 14, 2024 | 6 | — |
| SDF→ORD Louisville to Chicago | January 10, 2024 – February 14, 2024 | 6 | — |
| DCA→PIT Washington to Pittsburgh | December 19, 2023 | 1 | — |
| PHL→SYR Philadelphia to Syracuse | December 16, 2023 | 1 | — |
| SYR→PHL Syracuse to Philadelphia | December 16, 2023 | 1 | — |
| GSO→PHL Greensboro to Philadelphia | November 5, 2023 – December 4, 2023 | 26 | — |
| PHL→GSO Philadelphia to Greensboro | November 5, 2023 – December 4, 2023 | 26 | — |
Because the same number has served different journeys, the statistics above describe only the route YX4551 currently operates. Blending them would produce an average of two different flights.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
35 min late
against a median of 9 min early
Percentiles over 666 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Other flights on this route
Same airports, same journey, different odds of arriving on time.
| Flight | Airline | On time | Median arrival | Operations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YX4551 this flight | Republic Airways | 80.7% | 9 min early | 666 |
| YX5713 | Republic Airways | 69.4% | 5 min early | 768 |
| YX4781 | Republic Airways | 66.0% | 2 min late | 712 |
Every departure listed carries at least 600 operations, so the comparison is between figures that mean something. YX4551 is placed in the same ordering rather than left out of it; the rows around it are the most punctual departures on the route, not all of them, so this is a comparison and not a rank. Schedules change; confirm the departure still operates before booking around this.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 666 records of YX4551 operating DCA → JFK, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
Analysis last recomputed