Flight profile · Alaska Airlines
AS407
Chicago (ORD) to Seattle (SEA) · scheduled 1:10 PM – 6:22 PM
How AS407 performs
724 operations, July 2023 – July 2026.
AS407’s scheduled departure has moved during the period FlyerIntel has on file: it typically left around 1:15 PM earlier on, and around 3:15 PM more recently — a 120-minute shift, not the few minutes of day-to-day rounding every published schedule carries. Confirm the current departure time before booking around an older listing.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · 724 operations, July 2023 – July 2026 · If AS407 is cancelled or significantly changed, DOT’s automatic refund rule may entitle you to your money back. The refund checker walks through eligibility.
Where AS407 is right now
A live reading, only if you ask for it. It is not part of the reliability record above.
Ask for the position of AS407 right now, if receivers on the ground are hearing it. Nothing is requested until you press the button.
Against the rest of the route
| Flight or route | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe | Flights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS407 | 73.8% | 0.97% | -2 min | 6.2% | 724 |
| Alaska Airlines on ORD → SEA | 70.6% | 1.09% | -2 min | 8.8% | 5,684 |
| All ORD → SEA flights | 74.0% | 1.00% | -4 min | 8.0% | 16,311 |
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
Why AS407 runs late
Where US DOT attributed the delay minutes on this flight.
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for AS407 on ORD → SEA. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Does a late aircraft delay this flight?
How often the plane that flies AS407 comes in late, and what that does to the departure.
When the aircraft came in 15 or more minutes late, AS407 pushed back an average of 50 minutes late; when it came in on time or early, an average of 3 minutes late.
Each departure is matched to the flight the same aircraft flew into ORD just before it, using the tail number in the DOT file, 694 of 718 departures in all. A departure is left out when that flight is unknown, was cancelled or diverted, or the aircraft had sat for more than 12 hours. A flight the airline cancelled never left and is not in the count, and one flown by a substitute aircraft is matched to the aircraft that flew it, not to the one first planned.
Against the network at the same turn length
| Share of departures | Inbound landed 15+ late | Left 15+ late after a late inbound | Left 15+ late after an on-time inbound |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS407 | 18% | 91% | 11% |
| Network, same turn | 18% | 85% | 10% |
The schedule leaves a normal turn: enough time to clean and board if the aircraft is on time, little to spare if it is not.
The network row is every flight with a scheduled turn of 45 to 59 minutes. How often AS407’s aircraft landed 15 or more minutes late is about the same as the network’s and, once the aircraft was late, how often AS407 left 15 or more minutes late is higher than the network’s.
More: Which Flight Numbers Pay for a Late Aircraft lists the flight numbers that pass a late aircraft on.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
From pushback to gate
When it leaves ORD late, does that still matter by the time it reaches SEA?
AS407 pushes back an average of 13.0 minutes late and reaches the gate at SEA an average of 8.2 minutes late. The 4.9 minutes between those two figures are slack the published schedule already carries, which is why a late pushback on this flight does not reliably become a late arrival. It spends 25.1 minutes on the taxiways at ORD, 1.2 minutes longer than a typical ORD departure in the same hour.
On arrival at SEA, AS407 spends 11.0 min taxiing from touchdown to the gate — ground time a connecting passenger sits through before they can even leave the aircraft, on top of however late the flight itself ran. That is about what any arrival at SEA spends on the ground before reaching the gate.
Departure delay is averaged over every pushback and arrival delay over every completed arrival, so the two counts differ by the flights that never reached SEA. Taxi-out is gate to wheels up and sits inside the scheduled block rather than on top of it; the comparison is 64,008 departures from ORD scheduled in the clock hour AS407 most often leaves in. Taxi-in is landing to gate, compared against every arrival FlyerIntel has on file at SEA (510,187 flights), not just AS407’s own. More on taxi time.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026
The hour it leaves ORD
Part of any flight’s record belongs to the clock rather than to the flight. AS407 has one departure time, so this is what that time is worth.
On-time arrival rate. 64,008 departures from ORD are scheduled in the 1 PM–2 PM hour over the period, against 952,802 across the whole day.
AS407 is scheduled out of ORD at 1:10 PM, in the 1 PM–2 PM bank. Departures from ORD in that hour arrive on time 76.5% of the time against 74.5% across the airport’s whole day, so the hour AS407 leaves in is an ordinary one for ORD and explains nothing about its record either way.
The two airport figures cover every departure from ORD to every destination, so they describe the slot rather than this journey — the like-for-like comparison against the route is above. Hours are scheduled local, and a number whose schedule moved between banks inside the period has no single hour and is not described here at all. Why the hour matters.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Hours below 120 departures are not scored.
Other routes AS407 has flown
A flight number is a slot in a schedule, and carriers reassign it. These are the other city pairs this number served in the analysis period.
| Route | Operated | Flights | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAS→SEA Las Vegas to Seattle | March 9, 2025 | 1 | — |
| PDX→SAN Portland to San Diego | October 27, 2024 – November 17, 2024 | 4 | — |
| BOS→PDX Boston to Portland | August 20, 2024 | 1 | — |
| OKC→SEA Oklahoma City to Seattle | June 15, 2024 – August 17, 2024 | 10 | — |
| SEA→OKC Seattle to Oklahoma City | June 15, 2024 – August 17, 2024 | 10 | — |
| CLE→SEA Cleveland to Seattle | May 17, 2024 – June 12, 2024 | 27 | — |
Because the same number has served different journeys, the statistics above describe only the route AS407 currently operates. Blending them would produce an average of two different flights.
When it goes wrong
The average describes a usual day. This is the day that ruins a connection.
40 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 724 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
Other flights on this route
Same airports, same journey, different odds of arriving on time.
| Flight | Airline | On time | Median arrival | Operations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL2041 | Delta Air Lines | 80.7% | 6 min early | 785 |
| UA2278 | United Airlines | 80.1% | 7 min early | 646 |
| AS407 this flight | Alaska Airlines | 73.8% | 2 min early | 724 |
| AS329 | Alaska Airlines | 71.7% | 0 min early | 911 |
Every departure listed carries at least 600 operations, so the comparison is between figures that mean something. AS407 is placed in the same ordering rather than left out of it; the rows around it are the most punctual departures on the route, not all of them, so this is a comparison and not a rank. Schedules change; confirm the departure still operates before booking around this.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 724 records of AS407 operating ORD → SEA, published by the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics. A flight counts as delayed when it arrives 15 or more minutes after schedule. Cancelled and diverted flights are excluded from the on-time rate and reported separately. Flight numbers are resolved as carrier plus number plus route, because the same number serves different routes over time.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: Most and Least Reliable Flight Numbers · The Delay You Inherit · Making Up Time in the Air
Analysis last recomputed