SMF → LAS Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · SMFNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 01:53 UTC

Sacramento airport profile →

Destination · LASNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 01:56 UTC

Las Vegas airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

74/ 100Good

Better than 72% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 15,724 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

80.8%

12,593 of 15,592

Cancellation rate

0.76%

120 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-5 min

Average 5.4 min

Severe delays

6.0%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

57 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

15,724

4 carriers

SMF → LAS arrives on time 80.8% of the time; the return trip, LAS → SMF, arrives on time 79.1% of the time.

SMF → LAS spends 20.9 minutes on the ground on a 397-mile trip: 13.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SMF and 7.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at LAS.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

This route holds up about the same all year, a steadier seasonal pattern than 94% of 3,357 comparable routes.

85.5% on time in its best month (November) against 75.4% in its worst (July).

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 3,357 in the comparison.

Why SMF → LAS flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

SMF → LAS cancelled 120 of 15,724 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 131. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 50.0% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 262 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather50.0%

Airline31.7%

Air traffic18.3%

Security0.0%

Of 120 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 262

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

60 cancellations, 50.0% of the total.

The airline1 in 414

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

38 cancellations, 31.7% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 715

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

22 cancellations, 18.3% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

120 coded cancellations were recorded on SMF → LAS; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

37 min late

against a median of 5 min early

Arrived an hour or more late6.0%

Typical delay when late57 min

Cancelled0.76%

Landed somewhere else0.08%

Percentiles over 15,724 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at LAS after arriving from SMF.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, SMF → LAS arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	36%	Likely to miss
45 min	19%	High risk
60 min	12%	Some risk
90 min	5.9%	Some risk
120 min	3.3%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.76% of the time and diverts 0.08% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 15,592 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 37 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 15,724 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

SMF → LAS flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.6% of the time, against 72.2% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 21.4 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (SMF).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 8.7 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 5.0 points.

On-time arrival rate for SMF to LAS by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 10 PM (152 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for SMF to LAS. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	96.7% on time120 flights	80 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	97.5% on time121 flights	95.2% on time125 flights	96.8% on time126 flights	97.1% on time137 flights
6 AM–7 AM	92.2% on time128 flights	117 flights, too few to score	117 flights, too few to score	94.7% on time132 flights	92.8% on time126 flights	81 flights, too few to score	97.3% on time147 flights
7 AM–8 AM	92.1% on time127 flights	107 flights, too few to score	106 flights, too few to score	86.4% on time125 flights	91.5% on time129 flights	69 flights, too few to score	115 flights, too few to score
8 AM–9 AM	87.6% on time154 flights	91.2% on time137 flights	96.2% on time130 flights	92.3% on time143 flights	94.6% on time149 flights	95 flights, too few to score	94.6% on time149 flights
9 AM–10 AM	90.3% on time134 flights	117 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	89.6% on time135 flights	96.1% on time128 flights	93.3% on time120 flights	87.9% on time151 flights
10 AM–11 AM	89.0% on time127 flights	104 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	86.1% on time122 flights	118 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	90.6% on time129 flights
11 AM–12 PM	79.5% on time152 flights	86.6% on time134 flights	91.3% on time149 flights	82.7% on time152 flights	74.0% on time150 flights	84.7% on time126 flights	80.8% on time148 flights
12 PM–1 PM	76.0% on time146 flights	111 flights, too few to score	95 flights, too few to score	67.7% on time133 flights	62.0% on time142 flights	89 flights, too few to score	94 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	107 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score	71.3% on time124 flights	105 flights, too few to score	108 flights, too few to score	77.6% on time197 flights
2 PM–3 PM	115 flights, too few to score	86.0% on time132 flights	81.0% on time138 flights	119 flights, too few to score	56.7% on time122 flights	113 flights, too few to score	104 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	76.0% on time197 flights	83.6% on time201 flights	85.8% on time198 flights	65.9% on time216 flights	63.8% on time198 flights	83.7% on time170 flights	73.8% on time226 flights
4 PM–5 PM	78.1% on time131 flights	104 flights, too few to score	100 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score	57.9% on time124 flights	106 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	71.6% on time143 flights	76.4% on time127 flights	83.2% on time131 flights	62.0% on time130 flights	58.0% on time146 flights	86 flights, too few to score	69.4% on time127 flights
6 PM–7 PM	75.6% on time172 flights	89.8% on time128 flights	119 flights, too few to score	66.7% on time144 flights	63.9% on time199 flights	81 flights, too few to score	61.5% on time126 flights
7 PM–8 PM	74.6% on time175 flights	83.8% on time131 flights	85.0% on time148 flights	72.5% on time198 flights	61.3% on time175 flights	81.9% on time138 flights	65.1% on time179 flights
8 PM–9 PM	80.0% on time148 flights	85.1% on time150 flights	77.9% on time141 flights	71.8% on time144 flights	72.3% on time138 flights	74 flights, too few to score	68.6% on time158 flights
9 PM–10 PM	71.1% on time149 flights	74 flights, too few to score	67 flights, too few to score	69.3% on time143 flights	67.7% on time159 flights	45 flights, too few to score	68.0% on time152 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM93.6%

9 AM–12 PM87.6%

12–3 PM76.0%

3–6 PM73.1%

6–9 PM74.7%

9 PM–5 AM72.2%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why SMF → LAS runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft44.5%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control28.2%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

The airline23.8%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Weather3.4%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.2%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SMF → LAS. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SMF → LAS, at 44.5%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.6% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 72.2%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is LAS, where the flight lands. Its figure counts departures from LAS, so it says more about how that airport copes than about this route. Bad weather cancels 2.4 times the normal rate at LAS against 1.6 times at SMF. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: SMF 1.0% against 0.6%, LAS 2.0% against 0.8%. Flights that did leave LAS in bad weather arrived on time 58.5% of the time, against 78.5% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from SMF and LAS in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	SMF	LAS
Cancelled in bad weather	1.0%	2.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.6%	0.8%
Arrived on time, bad weather	83.0%	58.5%
Arrived on time, normal hours	83.2%	78.5%
Departures in bad weather	12,018	14,522

SkyWest Airlines (1.6% cancelled against 1.0% for the other carriers at SMF) cancelled more departures from SMF in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly better. 2 more carriers fly this route but has too few bad-weather departures from SMF to compare.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at SMF

All departures from SMF

Cancellation rates in bad weather at SMF for the airlines that fly SMF to LAS, against the other carriers at SMF in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	6,823	1.0%about level	1.2%
SkyWest Airlines	1,842	1.6%above the others	1.0%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from SMF and LAS, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from SMF on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: SMF (airlines), LAS, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Southwest Airlines	11,186	80.3%	0.58%	-4 min	5.5%
Spirit Airlines	2,652	81.5%	1.36%	-7 min	7.1%
SkyWest Airlines	1,322	83.2%	0.61%	-9 min	7.3%
Frontier Airlines	564	80.1%	1.95%	-8 min	8.5%

Southwest Airlines flew 71.1% of the 15,724 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 1.95% of its flights here against 0.58% for Southwest Airlines.

SkyWest Airlines arrived on time 3.1 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon80.8%

Tue86.2%

Wed87.4%

Thu76.1%

Fri73.4%

Sat86.1%

Sun78.7%

Wednesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 14.0 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 10.1 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 79.9% against 83.1% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.2 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 15,724 SMF → LAS flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

SMF airport LAS airport Return direction LAS → SMF

SMF→LAS

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why SMF → LAS flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why SMF → LAS runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at SMF

Airlines on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology