LAS → SMF Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · LASNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 05:56 UTC

Las Vegas airport profile →

Destination · SMFNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 05:53 UTC

Sacramento airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

73/ 100Good

Better than 70% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 15,651 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

79.1%

12,295 of 15,535

Cancellation rate

0.70%

110 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-6 min

Average 4.8 min

Severe delays

6.1%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

55 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

15,651

4 carriers

LAS → SMF arrives on time 79.1% of the time; the return trip, SMF → LAS, arrives on time 80.8% of the time.

LAS → SMF spends 21.6 minutes on the ground on a 397-mile trip: 16.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at LAS and 5.2 minutes from touchdown to gate at SMF.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

Which day you fly matters unusually much here, a wider weekday spread than 92% of 4,467 comparable routes.

86.4% on time on a typical Saturday, against 72.1% on a Friday.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.

Why LAS → SMF flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

LAS → SMF cancelled 110 of 15,651 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 142. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 49.1% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 290 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather49.1%

Airline30.0%

Air traffic20.9%

Security0.0%

Of 110 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 290

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

54 cancellations, 49.1% of the total.

The airline1 in 474

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

33 cancellations, 30.0% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 680

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

23 cancellations, 20.9% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

110 coded cancellations were recorded on LAS → SMF; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

38 min late

against a median of 6 min early

Arrived an hour or more late6.1%

Typical delay when late55 min

Cancelled0.70%

Landed somewhere else0.04%

Percentiles over 15,651 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at SMF after arriving from LAS.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, LAS → SMF arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	37%	Likely to miss
45 min	20%	High risk
60 min	12%	Some risk
90 min	6.0%	Some risk
120 min	3.4%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.70% of the time and diverts 0.04% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 15,535 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 38 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 15,651 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

LAS → SMF flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.6% of the time, against 67.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 27.2 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (LAS).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 10.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 5.3 points.

On-time arrival rate for LAS to SMF by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM
10 PM–11 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 11 PM (468 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for LAS to SMF. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	95.9% on time147 flights	95.0% on time120 flights	117 flights, too few to score	96.5% on time147 flights	95.1% on time145 flights	96 flights, too few to score	95.5% on time156 flights
7 AM–8 AM	89.0% on time155 flights	114 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	93.2% on time146 flights	96.6% on time148 flights	94.0% on time151 flights	91.5% on time165 flights
8 AM–9 AM	92.5% on time133 flights	91.0% on time122 flights	97.1% on time138 flights	90.6% on time140 flights	87.2% on time133 flights	95.9% on time122 flights	92.0% on time151 flights
9 AM–10 AM	89.9% on time161 flights	89.8% on time167 flights	94.7% on time150 flights	87.6% on time139 flights	87.9% on time149 flights	82.6% on time146 flights	85.8% on time148 flights
10 AM–11 AM	83.1% on time149 flights	89.0% on time127 flights	89.8% on time128 flights	84.2% on time147 flights	77.1% on time145 flights	99 flights, too few to score	82.2% on time166 flights
11 AM–12 PM	99 flights, too few to score	103 flights, too few to score	83 flights, too few to score	119 flights, too few to score	108 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	86.4% on time128 flights
12 PM–1 PM	73.8% on time150 flights	87.5% on time121 flights	85.0% on time134 flights	72.1% on time138 flights	65.0% on time143 flights	119 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score
1 PM–2 PM	80.8% on time146 flights	83.7% on time147 flights	85.0% on time147 flights	67.4% on time130 flights	70.1% on time144 flights	84.4% on time162 flights	119 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	117 flights, too few to score	78.3% on time129 flights	77.9% on time131 flights	119 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	80.6% on time145 flights
3 PM–4 PM	118 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	80 flights, too few to score	65.9% on time126 flights	60.0% on time121 flights	95 flights, too few to score	67.4% on time142 flights
4 PM–5 PM	71.5% on time146 flights	86.4% on time163 flights	80.4% on time163 flights	65.6% on time123 flights	63.6% on time170 flights	97 flights, too few to score	102 flights, too few to score
5 PM–6 PM	67.7% on time194 flights	83.3% on time133 flights	83.7% on time142 flights	62.9% on time219 flights	61.7% on time185 flights	80.7% on time145 flights	66.7% on time203 flights
6 PM–7 PM	114 flights, too few to score	70.8% on time145 flights	77.6% on time135 flights	61.0% on time121 flights	114 flights, too few to score	59 flights, too few to score	63.6% on time134 flights
7 PM–8 PM	60.3% on time204 flights	72.9% on time194 flights	78.3% on time189 flights	61.1% on time205 flights	52.8% on time221 flights	118 flights, too few to score	59.8% on time184 flights
8 PM–9 PM	69.7% on time132 flights	99 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	64.6% on time128 flights	56.7% on time128 flights	54 flights, too few to score	63.9% on time123 flights
9 PM–10 PM	98 flights, too few to score	48 flights, too few to score	48 flights, too few to score	97 flights, too few to score	99 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score
10 PM–11 PM	75 flights, too few to score	27 flights, too few to score	30 flights, too few to score	79 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	22 flights, too few to score	59.5% on time132 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM94.6%

9 AM–12 PM86.2%

12–3 PM76.8%

3–6 PM72.0%

6–9 PM67.4%

9 PM–5 AM70.5%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why LAS → SMF runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft47.7%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline33.9%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control14.2%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather4.1%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for LAS → SMF. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on LAS → SMF, at 47.7%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 94.6% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 67.4%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is the one the flight leaves from, where a cancellation keeps it from departing at all. Bad weather cancels 2.4 times the normal rate at LAS against 1.6 times at SMF. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: LAS 2.0% against 0.8%, SMF 1.0% against 0.6%. Flights that did leave LAS in bad weather arrived on time 58.5% of the time, against 78.5% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from LAS and SMF in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	LAS	SMF
Cancelled in bad weather	2.0%	1.0%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.8%	0.6%
Arrived on time, bad weather	58.5%	83.0%
Arrived on time, normal hours	78.5%	83.2%
Departures in bad weather	14,522	12,018

Spirit Airlines (3.8% cancelled against 2.3% for the other carriers at LAS) and Frontier Airlines (4.0% cancelled against 1.8% for the other carriers at LAS) cancelled more departures from LAS in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly better. One more carrier flies this route but has too few bad-weather departures from LAS to compare.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at LAS

All departures from LAS

Cancellation rates in bad weather at LAS for the airlines that fly LAS to SMF, against the other carriers at LAS in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
Southwest Airlines	6,925	2.0%about level	2.1%
Spirit Airlines	1,398	3.8%above the others	2.3%
Frontier Airlines	943	4.0%above the others	1.8%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from LAS and SMF, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from LAS on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: LAS (airlines), SMF, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Southwest Airlines	11,114	78.2%	0.51%	-5 min	5.7%
Spirit Airlines	2,650	80.9%	1.25%	-6 min	6.5%
SkyWest Airlines	1,323	81.9%	0.83%	-8 min	8.9%
Frontier Airlines	564	83.6%	1.60%	-12 min	5.8%

Southwest Airlines flew 71.0% of the 15,651 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 1.60% of its flights here against 0.51% for Southwest Airlines.

Frontier Airlines arrived on time 5.4 percentage points more often than Southwest Airlines on this route.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon77.6%

Tue84.9%

Wed85.8%

Thu75.5%

Fri72.1%

Sat86.4%

Sun75.6%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 14.3 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 14.9 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 78.5% against 82.4% in the 12 months before — declining by 3.9 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 15,651 LAS → SMF flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

LAS airport SMF airport Return direction SMF → LAS

LAS→SMF

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why LAS → SMF flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why LAS → SMF runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at LAS

Airlines on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology