Route profile
SFO→ORD
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from San Francisco to Chicago, 1,846 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 50% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 16,120 flights. How this is calculated
SFO → ORD arrives on time 78.7% of the time; the return trip, ORD → SFO, arrives on time 71.8% of the time, a 7.0-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
SFO → ORD spends 37.2 minutes on the ground on a 1,846-mile trip: 21.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at SFO and 16.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 91% of 4,467 comparable routes.
82.0% on time on the best day (Tuesday) against 77.2% on the worst (Monday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
Why SFO → ORD flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
SFO → ORD cancelled 180 of 16,120 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 90. The reason filed most often was the airline, 61.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 145 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 180 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
111 cancellations, 61.7% of the total.
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
62 cancellations, 34.4% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
7 cancellations, 3.9% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
180 coded cancellations were recorded on SFO → ORD; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
42 min late
against a median of 7 min early
Percentiles over 16,120 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at ORD after arriving from SFO.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 36% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 7.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 4.7% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.12% of the time and diverts 0.45% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 15,868 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 42 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 16,120 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
SFO → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.9% of the time, against 66.1% for 12–3 PM departures, a gap of 23.8 percentage points.
By day and hour
On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (SFO).
Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 9.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 1.7 points.
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
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On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time
- 50–59
- 60–69
- 70–79
- 80–89
- 90–99
- Fewer than 120 flights, not scored
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.
No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 5 AM (430 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.
View as tableHide table
| Hour | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 AM–6 AM | 93.6% on time158 flights | 92.6% on time136 flights | 112 flights, too few to score | 94.9% on time157 flights | 93.5% on time156 flights | 118 flights, too few to score | 92.9% on time127 flights |
| 6 AM–7 AM | 91.3% on time273 flights | 93.1% on time266 flights | 90.8% on time266 flights | 90.0% on time272 flights | 93.3% on time273 flights | 93.5% on time266 flights | 91.8% on time275 flights |
| 7 AM–8 AM | 40 flights, too few to score | 50 flights, too few to score | 52 flights, too few to score | 38 flights, too few to score | 41 flights, too few to score | 44 flights, too few to score | 38 flights, too few to score |
| 8 AM–9 AM | 82.4% on time218 flights | 87.6% on time212 flights | 86.8% on time211 flights | 88.5% on time221 flights | 80.6% on time215 flights | 85.9% on time211 flights | 82.8% on time219 flights |
| 9 AM–10 AM | 38 flights, too few to score | 45 flights, too few to score | 47 flights, too few to score | 37 flights, too few to score | 43 flights, too few to score | 46 flights, too few to score | 36 flights, too few to score |
| 10 AM–11 AM | 70.4% on time226 flights | 76.5% on time222 flights | 67.0% on time221 flights | 75.3% on time227 flights | 72.1% on time227 flights | 71.0% on time221 flights | 69.1% on time221 flights |
| 11 AM–12 PM | 43 flights, too few to score | 42 flights, too few to score | 42 flights, too few to score | 43 flights, too few to score | 40 flights, too few to score | 35 flights, too few to score | 47 flights, too few to score |
| 12 PM–1 PM | 96 flights, too few to score | 87 flights, too few to score | 90 flights, too few to score | 92 flights, too few to score | 96 flights, too few to score | 68 flights, too few to score | 94 flights, too few to score |
| 1 PM–2 PM | 62.2% on time233 flights | 65.7% on time206 flights | 60.8% on time205 flights | 59.0% on time238 flights | 62.9% on time240 flights | 71.5% on time199 flights | 66.4% on time246 flights |
| 2 PM–3 PM | 69.7% on time138 flights | 71.3% on time130 flights | 67.9% on time133 flights | 62.1% on time133 flights | 58.1% on time136 flights | 80.2% on time121 flights | 68.0% on time131 flights |
| 3 PM–4 PM | 78 flights, too few to score | 61 flights, too few to score | 61 flights, too few to score | 80 flights, too few to score | 81 flights, too few to score | 73 flights, too few to score | 82 flights, too few to score |
| 4 PM–5 PM | 76.8% on time145 flights | 88.1% on time138 flights | 81.6% on time142 flights | 79.9% on time141 flights | 76.8% on time144 flights | 79.7% on time139 flights | 81.0% on time143 flights |
| 5 PM–6 PM | 45 flights, too few to score | 44 flights, too few to score | 46 flights, too few to score | 47 flights, too few to score | 47 flights, too few to score | 43 flights, too few to score | 47 flights, too few to score |
| 6 PM–7 PM | 111 flights, too few to score | 78 flights, too few to score | 92 flights, too few to score | 82.4% on time121 flights | 113 flights, too few to score | 59 flights, too few to score | 74.4% on time122 flights |
| 7 PM–8 PM | 4 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 4 flights, too few to score | 4 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 4 flights, too few to score |
| 8 PM–9 PM | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score |
| 9 PM–10 PM | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 0 flights, too few to score | 2 flights, too few to score | 2 flights, too few to score |
| 10 PM–11 PM | 77.9% on time124 flights | 106 flights, too few to score | 119 flights, too few to score | 73.6% on time122 flights | 110 flights, too few to score | 108 flights, too few to score | 110 flights, too few to score |
| 11 PM–12 AM | 76.7% on time338 flights | 85.5% on time320 flights | 79.9% on time350 flights | 74.7% on time353 flights | 77.4% on time350 flights | 78.8% on time342 flights | 74.9% on time369 flights |
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM: 80.8% on time from 410 flights
- 1 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 93.7% on time from 964 flights
- 6 AM: 92.0% on time from 1,891 flights
- 7 AM: 89.7% on time from 303 flights
- 8 AM: 84.9% on time from 1,507 flights
- 9 AM: 83.7% on time from 292 flights
- 10 AM: 71.7% on time from 1,565 flights
- 11 AM: 63.0% on time from 292 flights
- 12 PM: 68.6% on time from 623 flights
- 1 PM: 63.9% on time from 1,567 flights
- 2 PM: 68.0% on time from 922 flights
- 3 PM: 71.9% on time from 516 flights
- 4 PM: 80.5% on time from 992 flights
- 5 PM: 81.7% on time from 319 flights
- 6 PM: 82.0% on time from 696 flights
- 7 PM to 9 PM: too few flights to score
- 10 PM: 78.9% on time from 799 flights
- 11 PM: 78.2% on time from 2,422 flights
Why SFO → ORD runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for SFO → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on SFO → ORD, at 43.2%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.9% of the time and 12–3 PM departures 66.1%.
How this route holds up in bad weather
July 2023 – July 2026
The harder-hit end is ORD, where the flight lands. Its figure counts departures from ORD, so it says more about how that airport copes than about this route. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 1.7 times at SFO. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: SFO 1.5% against 0.9%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave ORD in bad weather arrived on time 55.7% of the time, against 77.1% in normal hours.
Bad weather and normal hours at the airports
Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026| Departures from | SFO | ORD |
|---|---|---|
| Cancelled in bad weather | 1.5% | 6.5% |
| Cancelled in normal hours | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| Arrived on time, bad weather | 73.0% | 55.7% |
| Arrived on time, normal hours | 79.8% | 77.1% |
| Departures in bad weather | 36,006 | 104,455 |
United Airlines (1.0% cancelled against 1.9% for the other carriers at SFO) cancelled fewer departures from SFO in bad weather than the other carriers there did in the same months. None of the route’s other carriers was clearly worse.
This route’s airlines in bad weather at SFO
All departures from SFO| Airline | Bad-weather departures | Cancelled | Other carriers |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 13,903 | 1.0%below the others | 1.9% |
| American Airlines | 3,143 | 1.2%about level | 1.5% |
| Alaska Airlines | 3,124 | 1.8%about level | 1.4% |
These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from SFO and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from SFO on every route.
Weather source and limits. In full: SFO (airlines), ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Airlines | 10,964 | 80.2% | 1.00% | -8 min | 6.7% |
| American Airlines | 4,161 | 76.1% | 1.32% | -8 min | 9.2% |
| Alaska Airlines | 995 | 73.7% | 1.51% | -3 min | 7.1% |
United Airlines flew 68.0% of the 16,120 flights listed.
United Airlines arrived on time 6.5 percentage points more often than Alaska Airlines on this route.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
| Flight | Scheduled | Operations | On time |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA2614 American Airlines | 6:00 AM | 1,114 | 91.7% |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 4.8 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 79.9%
- Feb: 84.9%
- Mar: 77.3%
- Apr: 79.6%
- May: 76.1%
- Jun: 74.1%
- Jul: 70.9%
- Aug: 78.8%
- Sep: 85.8%
- Oct: 83.8%
- Nov: 80.5%
- Dec: 79.7%
July is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 14.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 79.3% from 473 flights
- August 2023: 82.0% from 491 flights
- September 2023: 88.1% from 431 flights
- October 2023: 85.9% from 419 flights
- November 2023: 85.2% from 352 flights
- December 2023: 76.4% from 351 flights
- January 2024: 82.1% from 296 flights
- February 2024: 84.0% from 277 flights
- March 2024: 73.9% from 353 flights
- April 2024: 80.5% from 420 flights
- May 2024: 75.4% from 464 flights
- June 2024: 78.2% from 465 flights
- July 2024: 67.8% from 505 flights
- August 2024: 78.4% from 501 flights
- September 2024: 85.3% from 452 flights
- October 2024: 84.6% from 449 flights
- November 2024: 78.8% from 388 flights
- December 2024: 82.1% from 399 flights
- January 2025: 84.9% from 339 flights
- February 2025: 85.4% from 298 flights
- March 2025: 81.7% from 395 flights
- April 2025: 87.2% from 448 flights
- May 2025: 80.2% from 492 flights
- June 2025: 74.3% from 511 flights
- July 2025: 71.2% from 534 flights
- August 2025: 76.0% from 523 flights
- September 2025: 84.1% from 486 flights
- October 2025: 81.4% from 524 flights
- November 2025: 78.1% from 411 flights
- December 2025: 80.4% from 391 flights
- January 2026: 72.8% from 329 flights
- February 2026: 85.2% from 357 flights
- March 2026: 76.1% from 461 flights
- April 2026: 72.1% from 523 flights
- May 2026: 73.2% from 559 flights
- June 2026: 70.4% from 530 flights
- July 2026: 65.8% from 523 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.9% against 80.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.8 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 16,120 SFO → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed