PHX → ORD Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · PHXNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:51 UTC

Phoenix airport profile →

Destination · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

68/ 100Good

Better than 57% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 17,857 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

79.9%

14,045 of 17,569

Cancellation rate

1.15%

205 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-8 min

Average 4.9 min

Severe delays

7.0%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

72 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

17,857

4 carriers

PHX → ORD arrives on time 79.9% of the time; the return trip, ORD → PHX, arrives on time 77.8% of the time, a 2.1-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.

PHX → ORD spends 30.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,440-mile trip: 16.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 14.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 96% of 4,467 comparable routes.

82.2% on time on the best day (Saturday) against 78.3% on the worst (Friday).

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.

Why PHX → ORD flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

PHX → ORD cancelled 205 of 17,857 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 87. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 61.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 142 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather61.5%

Airline33.7%

Air traffic4.9%

Security0.0%

Of 205 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 142

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

126 cancellations, 61.5% of the total.

The airline1 in 259

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

69 cancellations, 33.7% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 1,786

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

10 cancellations, 4.9% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

205 coded cancellations were recorded on PHX → ORD; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

41 min late

against a median of 8 min early

Arrived an hour or more late7.0%

Typical delay when late72 min

Cancelled1.15%

Landed somewhere else0.46%

Percentiles over 17,857 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at ORD after arriving from PHX.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, PHX → ORD arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	34%	Likely to miss
45 min	19%	High risk
60 min	12%	Some risk
90 min	6.8%	Some risk
120 min	4.3%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.15% of the time and diverts 0.46% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 17,569 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 41 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 17,857 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

PHX → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.0% of the time, against 72.0% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 18.0 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (PHX).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 7.8 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 1.5 points.

On-time arrival rate for PHX to ORD by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM
10 PM–11 PM
11 PM–12 AM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM (1,191 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for PHX to ORD. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	90.1% on time171 flights	93.2% on time149 flights	95.2% on time147 flights	94.6% on time166 flights	91.9% on time163 flights	93.2% on time149 flights	92.5% on time162 flights
7 AM–8 AM	92.0% on time215 flights	88.4% on time192 flights	93.3% on time197 flights	94.6% on time203 flights	88.0% on time211 flights	89.6% on time235 flights	90.7% on time208 flights
8 AM–9 AM	86.7% on time178 flights	87.1% on time181 flights	83.7% on time181 flights	84.9% on time181 flights	80.2% on time178 flights	85.6% on time196 flights	87.1% on time173 flights
9 AM–10 AM	115 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	103 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	112 flights, too few to score	86.0% on time122 flights	118 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	78.1% on time173 flights	79.7% on time151 flights	81.7% on time146 flights	80.9% on time164 flights	76.4% on time162 flights	83.2% on time168 flights	84.0% on time163 flights
11 AM–12 PM	80.3% on time156 flights	77.4% on time161 flights	79.4% on time157 flights	81.6% on time154 flights	75.5% on time161 flights	85.3% on time137 flights	82.7% on time152 flights
12 PM–1 PM	77.4% on time232 flights	77.4% on time232 flights	78.2% on time236 flights	81.3% on time229 flights	81.9% on time232 flights	80.9% on time235 flights	81.3% on time238 flights
1 PM–2 PM	66.0% on time165 flights	70.7% on time160 flights	73.5% on time157 flights	70.3% on time159 flights	69.9% on time164 flights	79.9% on time156 flights	61.7% on time162 flights
2 PM–3 PM	66.9% on time125 flights	119 flights, too few to score	73.9% on time120 flights	116 flights, too few to score	107 flights, too few to score	71.1% on time128 flights	114 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	67.5% on time157 flights	70.6% on time156 flights	75.3% on time151 flights	68.9% on time165 flights	65.4% on time164 flights	72.2% on time154 flights	64.8% on time161 flights
4 PM–5 PM	77.2% on time153 flights	73.9% on time162 flights	81.5% on time147 flights	62.3% on time167 flights	77.3% on time168 flights	83.7% on time136 flights	65.9% on time181 flights
5 PM–6 PM	68.4% on time137 flights	113 flights, too few to score	116 flights, too few to score	76.9% on time126 flights	72.9% on time143 flights	70.7% on time126 flights	72.4% on time123 flights
6 PM–7 PM	68.6% on time143 flights	83.2% on time134 flights	77.7% on time131 flights	70.2% on time143 flights	79.3% on time142 flights	106 flights, too few to score	72.1% on time141 flights
7 PM–8 PM	116 flights, too few to score	108 flights, too few to score	101 flights, too few to score	118 flights, too few to score	114 flights, too few to score	109 flights, too few to score	69.1% on time126 flights
8 PM–9 PM	35 flights, too few to score	13 flights, too few to score	31 flights, too few to score	25 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score	29 flights, too few to score	26 flights, too few to score
9 PM–10 PM	0 flights, too few to score	0 flights, too few to score	0 flights, too few to score	0 flights, too few to score	0 flights, too few to score	0 flights, too few to score	3 flights, too few to score
10 PM–11 PM	3 flights, too few to score	2 flights, too few to score	2 flights, too few to score	2 flights, too few to score	2 flights, too few to score	0 flights, too few to score	2 flights, too few to score
11 PM–12 AM	89.6% on time178 flights	87.2% on time151 flights	83.3% on time174 flights	87.9% on time178 flights	82.7% on time176 flights	88.8% on time165 flights	82.1% on time183 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM90.0%

9 AM–12 PM80.7%

12–3 PM74.6%

3–6 PM72.0%

6–9 PM73.1%

9 PM–5 AM85.5%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why PHX → ORD runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft41.8%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

The airline31.3%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Air traffic control25.5%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather1.2%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHX → ORD, at 41.8%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.0% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 72.0%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of PHX to ORD: 3.9 times the normal rate at PHX and 5.5 times at ORD. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: PHX 2.5% against 0.6%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave PHX in bad weather arrived on time 53.7% of the time, against 80.6% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from PHX and ORD in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	PHX	ORD
Cancelled in bad weather	2.5%	6.5%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.6%	1.2%
Arrived on time, bad weather	53.7%	55.7%
Arrived on time, normal hours	80.6%	77.1%
Departures in bad weather	6,215	104,455

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from PHX and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad.

Weather source and limits. In full: PHX, ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	9,121	80.6%	1.15%	-10 min	7.1%
United Airlines	6,004	82.7%	1.08%	-8 min	5.6%
Southwest Airlines	1,904	74.2%	0.84%	-3 min	7.9%
Frontier Airlines	713	66.5%	2.66%	-2 min	14.8%

American Airlines flew 51.4% of the 17,742 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.66% of its flights here against 0.84% for Southwest Airlines.

United Airlines arrived on time 16.2 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
AA338 American Airlines	12:15 PM	609	76.0%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon78.6%

Tue81.1%

Wed81.4%

Thu79.9%

Fri78.3%

Sat82.2%

Sun78.4%

Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 3.9 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 16.6 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.2% against 83.3% in the 12 months before — declining by 7.1 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 17,857 PHX → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

PHX airport ORD airport Return direction ORD → PHX

PHX→ORD

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why PHX → ORD flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why PHX → ORD runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology