Route profile
PHX→OAK
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Phoenix to Oakland, 646 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 75% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,244 flights. How this is calculated
PHX → OAK arrives on time 77.7% of the time; the return trip, OAK → PHX, arrives on time 80.6% of the time, a 2.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
PHX → OAK spends 17.8 minutes on the ground on a 646-mile trip: 12.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 5.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at OAK.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 92% of 4,023 comparable routes.
94.3% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 62.9% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHX to OAK differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHX to OAK struggles most at 10 PM: 60.0% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9 points behind the 69.0% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.7 points.
PHX to OAK is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 AM: 98.3% arrive on time, 7.7 points ahead of the 90.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 7.5 points.
January is kinder to PHX to OAK than to routes of similar length: 85.3% on time against 79.1%, 6.2 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 6.2 points.
In October, PHX to OAK runs 5.4 points below routes of similar length, 78.0% on time to 83.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 5 points.
PHX to OAK against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 10 PM departures | 60.0% | routes of similar length | 69.0% | −9.0 pts | 320 here, 47,675 there |
| Hour: 6 AM departures | 98.3% | routes of similar length | 90.6% | +7.7 pts | 302 here, 151,713 there |
| Month: January | 85.3% | routes of similar length | 79.1% | +6.2 pts | 476 here, 151,639 there |
| Month: October | 78.0% | routes of similar length | 83.4% | −5.4 pts | 522 here, 181,505 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 646 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
36 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 6,244 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at OAK after arriving from PHX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 22% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.0% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.5% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.26% of the time and diverts 0.06% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,224 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 36 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,244 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHX → OAK flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 94.3% of the time, against 62.9% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 31.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 97.4% on time from 349 flights
- 6 AM: 98.3% on time from 303 flights
- 7 AM: 94.5% on time from 366 flights
- 8 AM: 89.7% on time from 539 flights
- 9 AM: 87.5% on time from 281 flights
- 10 AM: 82.7% on time from 287 flights
- 11 AM: 83.0% on time from 373 flights
- 12 PM: 82.0% on time from 209 flights
- 1 PM: 80.5% on time from 329 flights
- 2 PM: 72.0% on time from 270 flights
- 3 PM: 67.2% on time from 302 flights
- 4 PM: 74.6% on time from 346 flights
- 5 PM: 67.4% on time from 350 flights
- 6 PM: 68.4% on time from 358 flights
- 7 PM: 67.0% on time from 364 flights
- 8 PM: 64.3% on time from 532 flights
- 9 PM: 66.0% on time from 359 flights
- 10 PM: 60.0% on time from 321 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why PHX → OAK runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → OAK. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHX → OAK, at 57.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 94.3% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 62.9%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,244 | 77.7% | 0.26% | -2 min | 5.2% |
Other ways to fly Phoenix to San Francisco
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX→SFO Phoenix to San Francisco | 14,538 | 70.1% | 0.54% | -1 min | 55 |
| PHX→OAK this route Phoenix to Oakland | 6,244 | 77.7% | 0.26% | -2 min | 75 |
PHX → OAK is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 77.7% on time, against 70.1% for PHX → SFO.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 6.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.3%
- Feb: 83.7%
- Mar: 76.4%
- Apr: 77.0%
- May: 69.6%
- Jun: 69.2%
- Jul: 72.5%
- Aug: 79.2%
- Sep: 81.5%
- Oct: 78.0%
- Nov: 86.9%
- Dec: 77.4%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 17.7 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 72.4% from 174 flights
- August 2023: 72.2% from 165 flights
- September 2023: 77.6% from 175 flights
- October 2023: 74.7% from 182 flights
- November 2023: 89.1% from 175 flights
- December 2023: 77.5% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 82.1% from 168 flights
- February 2024: 77.6% from 154 flights
- March 2024: 70.2% from 181 flights
- April 2024: 79.7% from 173 flights
- May 2024: 69.4% from 173 flights
- June 2024: 73.7% from 171 flights
- July 2024: 71.8% from 174 flights
- August 2024: 83.2% from 168 flights
- September 2024: 85.2% from 162 flights
- October 2024: 82.9% from 170 flights
- November 2024: 91.6% from 167 flights
- December 2024: 84.0% from 175 flights
- January 2025: 89.7% from 156 flights
- February 2025: 89.6% from 144 flights
- March 2025: 77.7% from 198 flights
- April 2025: 79.3% from 185 flights
- May 2025: 72.5% from 189 flights
- June 2025: 69.7% from 178 flights
- July 2025: 69.7% from 179 flights
- August 2025: 82.4% from 142 flights
- September 2025: 82.1% from 134 flights
- October 2025: 76.5% from 170 flights
- November 2025: 79.1% from 157 flights
- December 2025: 70.1% from 164 flights
- January 2026: 84.2% from 152 flights
- February 2026: 84.4% from 148 flights
- March 2026: 81.3% from 177 flights
- April 2026: 71.8% from 170 flights
- May 2026: 66.7% from 177 flights
- June 2026: 64.3% from 169 flights
- July 2026: 76.2% from 165 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 76.2% against 80.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 4.6 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,244 PHX → OAK flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed