Route profile
OAK→PHX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Oakland to Phoenix, 646 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 84% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,215 flights. How this is calculated
OAK → PHX arrives on time 80.6% of the time; the return trip, PHX → OAK, arrives on time 77.7% of the time, a 2.9-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
OAK → PHX spends 18.0 minutes on the ground on a 646-mile trip: 12.1 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at OAK and 5.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
On-time performance swings unusually widely by time of day here, wider than 96% of 4,023 comparable routes.
93.7% on time for 5–9 AM departures, against 59.4% for 9 PM–5 AM.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,023 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where OAK to PHX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
OAK to PHX struggles most at 9 PM: 51.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 16.2 points behind the 67.8% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 17.9 points.
OAK to PHX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 6 PM: 80.1% arrive on time, 13 points ahead of the 67.1% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.5 points.
OAK to PHX holds up on Saturdays better than routes of similar length do: 86.2% on time to their 79.3%, a 6.9 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 7.1 points.
July is kinder to OAK to PHX than to routes of similar length: 77.7% on time against 69.2%, 8.5 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
In October, OAK to PHX runs 7.2 points below routes of similar length, 76.2% on time to 83.4%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.8 points.
OAK to PHX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 9 PM departures | 51.6% | routes of similar length | 67.8% | −16.2 pts | 304 here, 70,565 there |
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 80.1% | routes of similar length | 67.1% | +13.0 pts | 437 here, 136,637 there |
| Weekday: Saturday | 86.2% | routes of similar length | 79.3% | +6.9 pts | 773 here, 258,986 there |
| Month: July | 77.7% | routes of similar length | 69.2% | +8.5 pts | 672 here, 236,571 there |
| Month: October | 76.2% | routes of similar length | 83.4% | −7.2 pts | 512 here, 181,515 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 646 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
33 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 6,215 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHX after arriving from OAK.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 39% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 19% | High risk |
| 60 min | 11% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.8% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 2.4% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.21% of the time and diverts 0.10% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,196 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 33 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,215 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
OAK → PHX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 93.7% of the time, against 59.4% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 34.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 97.7% on time from 786 flights
- 6 AM: 95.0% on time from 240 flights
- 7 AM: 94.0% on time from 182 flights
- 8 AM: 88.2% on time from 650 flights
- 9 AM: 85.8% on time from 178 flights
- 10 AM: 89.4% on time from 265 flights
- 11 AM: 84.7% on time from 426 flights
- 12 PM: 79.3% on time from 271 flights
- 1 PM: 78.7% on time from 236 flights
- 2 PM: 78.2% on time from 304 flights
- 3 PM: 73.7% on time from 397 flights
- 4 PM: 68.3% on time from 360 flights
- 5 PM: 71.0% on time from 286 flights
- 6 PM: 80.1% on time from 439 flights
- 7 PM: 72.4% on time from 457 flights
- 8 PM: 64.9% on time from 305 flights
- 9 PM: 51.6% on time from 306 flights
- 10 PM: 78.0% on time from 127 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why OAK → PHX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for OAK → PHX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on OAK → PHX, at 59.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 93.7% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 59.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 6,214 | 80.6% | 0.21% | -3 min | 5.0% |
Other ways to fly San Francisco to Phoenix
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFO→PHX San Francisco to Phoenix | 14,528 | 76.4% | 0.57% | -5 min | 64 |
| OAK→PHX this route Oakland to Phoenix | 6,215 | 80.6% | 0.21% | -3 min | 78 |
OAK → PHX is the most reliable pairing for this journey at 80.6% on time, against 76.4% for SFO → PHX.
Flying to PHX from the San Francisco area? Compare OAK, SFO, SJC for PHX, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Monday the least, a gap of 9.7 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 85.3%
- Feb: 86.6%
- Mar: 83.9%
- Apr: 83.8%
- May: 79.5%
- Jun: 72.8%
- Jul: 77.7%
- Aug: 81.4%
- Sep: 82.0%
- Oct: 76.2%
- Nov: 83.8%
- Dec: 76.1%
June is historically the weakest month and February the strongest, a spread of 13.8 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 79.7% from 172 flights
- August 2023: 79.7% from 180 flights
- September 2023: 81.1% from 169 flights
- October 2023: 71.7% from 173 flights
- November 2023: 85.1% from 174 flights
- December 2023: 78.7% from 183 flights
- January 2024: 81.3% from 173 flights
- February 2024: 82.9% from 158 flights
- March 2024: 77.9% from 182 flights
- April 2024: 90.0% from 170 flights
- May 2024: 85.2% from 169 flights
- June 2024: 75.3% from 170 flights
- July 2024: 81.0% from 174 flights
- August 2024: 83.4% from 169 flights
- September 2024: 85.1% from 161 flights
- October 2024: 84.6% from 170 flights
- November 2024: 88.5% from 165 flights
- December 2024: 79.3% from 175 flights
- January 2025: 87.1% from 155 flights
- February 2025: 88.8% from 144 flights
- March 2025: 91.4% from 197 flights
- April 2025: 83.2% from 185 flights
- May 2025: 81.5% from 189 flights
- June 2025: 72.9% from 178 flights
- July 2025: 73.7% from 179 flights
- August 2025: 81.1% from 143 flights
- September 2025: 79.5% from 134 flights
- October 2025: 72.4% from 170 flights
- November 2025: 77.6% from 158 flights
- December 2025: 69.7% from 165 flights
- January 2026: 88.1% from 152 flights
- February 2026: 88.5% from 148 flights
- March 2026: 81.7% from 177 flights
- April 2026: 78.2% from 170 flights
- May 2026: 72.1% from 179 flights
- June 2026: 69.9% from 157 flights
- July 2026: 76.2% from 148 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 77.7% against 83.2% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.5 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,215 OAK → PHX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed