Route profile
PHX→MDW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Phoenix to Chicago, 1,444 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 64% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,235 flights. How this is calculated · What counts as on time
PHX → MDW arrives on time 77.5% of the time; the return trip, MDW → PHX, arrives on time 76.4% of the time.
PHX → MDW spends 17.5 minutes on the ground on a 1,444-mile trip: 12.4 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at PHX and 5.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at MDW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every airline on this route performs about the same, a narrower carrier gap than 99% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Frontier Airlines (77.8% on time) and Southwest Airlines (77.5%) are close together here.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where PHX to MDW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
PHX to MDW struggles most at 8 PM: 56.4% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 8.9 points behind the 65.3% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11 points.
PHX to MDW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 11 AM: 82.4% arrive on time, 4 points ahead of the 78.4% those routes manage at that hour.
In March, PHX to MDW runs 4.9 points below routes of similar length, 73.1% on time to 78.0%. Against all other routes the gap is 4.8 points.
September is kinder to PHX to MDW than to routes of similar length: 86.5% on time against 82.4%, 4.1 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on PHX to MDW than on its routes of similar length: 77.8% on time here, 69.6% there, 8.2 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 6.6 points.
PHX to MDW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 8 PM departures | 56.4% | routes of similar length | 65.3% | −8.9 pts | 234 here, 54,155 there |
| Hour: 11 AM departures | 82.4% | routes of similar length | 78.4% | +4.0 pts | 461 here, 89,552 there |
| Month: March | 73.1% | routes of similar length | 78.0% | −4.9 pts | 840 here, 131,882 there |
| Month: September | 86.5% | routes of similar length | 82.4% | +4.1 pts | 719 here, 122,138 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 77.8% | routes of similar length | 69.6% | +8.2 pts | 748 here, 63,339 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,444 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why PHX → MDW flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
PHX → MDW cancelled 79 of 9,235 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 117. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 74.7% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 157 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 79 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
59 cancellations, 74.7% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
18 cancellations, 22.8% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
2 cancellations, 2.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
79 coded cancellations were recorded on PHX → MDW; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
37 min late
against a median of 2 min early
Percentiles over 9,235 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at MDW after arriving from PHX.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 44% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 21% | High risk |
| 60 min | 12% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 5.3% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 2.5% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.86% of the time and diverts 0.53% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,107 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 37 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,235 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
PHX → MDW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.7% of the time, against 62.4% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 29.3 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 93.5% on time from 836 flights
- 6 AM: 93.4% on time from 732 flights
- 7 AM: 90.4% on time from 597 flights
- 8 AM: 88.8% on time from 663 flights
- 9 AM: 84.3% on time from 441 flights
- 10 AM: 80.0% on time from 514 flights
- 11 AM: 82.4% on time from 463 flights
- 12 PM: 74.4% on time from 527 flights
- 1 PM: 75.0% on time from 418 flights
- 2 PM: 72.1% on time from 622 flights
- 3 PM: 67.1% on time from 698 flights
- 4 PM: 70.5% on time from 543 flights
- 5 PM: 65.6% on time from 565 flights
- 6 PM: 64.3% on time from 665 flights
- 7 PM: 62.7% on time from 573 flights
- 8 PM: 56.4% on time from 237 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why PHX → MDW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for PHX → MDW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed. What the five causes mean
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on PHX → MDW, at 44.1%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 91.7% of the time and 6–9 PM departures 62.4%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8,477 | 77.5% | 0.83% | -1 min | 5.1% |
| Frontier Airlines | 758 | 77.8% | 1.19% | -7 min | 8.4% |
Southwest Airlines flew 91.8% of the 9,235 flights listed.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Other ways to fly Phoenix to Chicago
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX→ORD Phoenix to Chicago | 17,857 | 79.9% | 1.15% | -8 min | 68 |
| PHX→MDW this route Phoenix to Chicago | 9,235 | 77.5% | 0.86% | -2 min | 71 |
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 5.6 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 82.0%
- Feb: 82.7%
- Mar: 73.1%
- Apr: 78.6%
- May: 72.0%
- Jun: 69.5%
- Jul: 70.5%
- Aug: 75.9%
- Sep: 86.5%
- Oct: 81.0%
- Nov: 83.8%
- Dec: 79.5%
June is historically the weakest month and September the strongest, a spread of 17.0 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 72.1% from 284 flights
- August 2023: 73.9% from 290 flights
- September 2023: 87.5% from 265 flights
- October 2023: 81.2% from 313 flights
- November 2023: 87.0% from 277 flights
- December 2023: 80.9% from 264 flights
- January 2024: 84.3% from 217 flights
- February 2024: 82.6% from 190 flights
- March 2024: 80.0% from 291 flights
- April 2024: 79.1% from 303 flights
- May 2024: 72.8% from 298 flights
- June 2024: 74.2% from 263 flights
- July 2024: 75.6% from 271 flights
- August 2024: 77.1% from 250 flights
- September 2024: 87.4% from 255 flights
- October 2024: 80.0% from 280 flights
- November 2024: 89.4% from 230 flights
- December 2024: 81.6% from 244 flights
- January 2025: 85.6% from 210 flights
- February 2025: 87.4% from 192 flights
- March 2025: 77.5% from 284 flights
- April 2025: 83.0% from 271 flights
- May 2025: 79.7% from 243 flights
- June 2025: 72.2% from 241 flights
- July 2025: 74.6% from 252 flights
- August 2025: 77.1% from 212 flights
- September 2025: 84.2% from 204 flights
- October 2025: 81.9% from 266 flights
- November 2025: 73.6% from 223 flights
- December 2025: 75.8% from 242 flights
- January 2026: 76.0% from 201 flights
- February 2026: 78.4% from 204 flights
- March 2026: 61.1% from 283 flights
- April 2026: 73.1% from 251 flights
- May 2026: 63.2% from 236 flights
- June 2026: 61.4% from 229 flights
- July 2026: 56.3% from 206 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.7% against 81.0% in the 12 months before — declining by 9.3 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,235 PHX → MDW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed