Route profile
MDW→PHX
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Chicago to Phoenix, 1,444 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 52% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 9,221 flights. How this is calculated
MDW → PHX arrives on time 76.4% of the time; the return trip, PHX → MDW, arrives on time 77.5% of the time.
MDW → PHX spends 20.1 minutes on the ground on a 1,444-mile trip: 14.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MDW and 6.1 minutes from touchdown to gate at PHX.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every airline on this route performs about the same, a narrower carrier gap than 97% of 2,692 comparable routes.
Southwest Airlines (76.4% on time) and Frontier Airlines (75.6%) are close together here.
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MDW to PHX differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MDW to PHX struggles most at 6 PM: 60.6% of its flights scheduled then arrive on time, 9.6 points behind the 70.2% on routes of similar length at the same hour. Against all other routes the gap is 8 points.
MDW to PHX is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 10 AM: 86.9% arrive on time, 6.3 points ahead of the 80.6% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 4.2 points.
Thursday is the day MDW to PHX slips furthest against routes of similar length, 72.7% on time where they average 76.6%, 3.9 points lower. Against all other routes the gap is 4.1 points.
In June, MDW to PHX runs 5.9 points below routes of similar length, 65.8% on time to 71.7%. Against all other routes the gap is 6.9 points.
Frontier Airlines does better on MDW to PHX than on its routes of similar length: 75.6% on time here, 69.6% there, 6 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 4.4 points.
MDW to PHX against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 6 PM departures | 60.6% | routes of similar length | 70.2% | −9.6 pts | 424 here, 108,656 there |
| Hour: 10 AM departures | 86.9% | routes of similar length | 80.6% | +6.3 pts | 375 here, 85,099 there |
| Weekday: Thursday | 72.7% | routes of similar length | 76.6% | −3.9 pts | 1,384 here, 231,379 there |
| Month: June | 65.8% | routes of similar length | 71.7% | −5.9 pts | 707 here, 131,794 there |
| Airline: Frontier Airlines | 75.6% | routes of similar length | 69.6% | +6.0 pts | 747 here, 63,340 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 1,444 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
Why MDW → PHX flights are cancelled
July 2023 – July 2026
MDW → PHX cancelled 112 of 9,221 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 82. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 67.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 121 scheduled flights.
Share of cancellations
Of 112 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.
What each reason means
Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.
76 cancellations, 67.9% of the total.
Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.
31 cancellations, 27.7% of the total.
Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.
5 cancellations, 4.5% of the total.
A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.
0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.
Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. With only one or two carriers on the route, the split mostly reflects how they file. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.
112 coded cancellations were recorded on MDW → PHX; the section appears from 50.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
39 min late
against a median of 3 min early
Percentiles over 9,221 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at PHX after arriving from MDW.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 43% | Likely to miss |
| 45 min | 23% | High risk |
| 60 min | 13% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 6.0% | Some risk |
| 120 min | 3.3% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.21% of the time and diverts 0.24% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 9,087 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 39 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 9,221 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MDW → PHX flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.7% of the time, against 59.3% for 9 PM–5 AM departures, a gap of 31.4 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 95.5% on time from 717 flights
- 6 AM: 91.7% on time from 349 flights
- 7 AM: 86.0% on time from 711 flights
- 8 AM: 89.9% on time from 608 flights
- 9 AM: 85.0% on time from 545 flights
- 10 AM: 86.9% on time from 384 flights
- 11 AM: 79.0% on time from 594 flights
- 12 PM: 83.9% on time from 538 flights
- 1 PM: 77.8% on time from 442 flights
- 2 PM: 69.7% on time from 419 flights
- 3 PM: 74.5% on time from 447 flights
- 4 PM: 66.5% on time from 477 flights
- 5 PM: 72.7% on time from 581 flights
- 6 PM: 60.6% on time from 433 flights
- 7 PM: 59.9% on time from 497 flights
- 8 PM: 61.7% on time from 531 flights
- 9 PM: 60.3% on time from 544 flights
- 10 PM: 57.7% on time from 392 flights
- 11 PM: too few flights to score
Why MDW → PHX runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MDW → PHX. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MDW → PHX, at 45.3%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 90.7% of the time and 9 PM–5 AM departures 59.3%.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southwest Airlines | 8,463 | 76.4% | 1.21% | -3 min | 6.0% |
| Frontier Airlines | 758 | 75.6% | 1.32% | -7 min | 7.9% |
Southwest Airlines flew 91.8% of the 9,221 flights listed.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Other ways to fly Chicago to Phoenix
Airport pairs in the same two city markets, as the DOT defines them.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORD→PHX Chicago to Phoenix | 17,873 | 77.8% | 1.07% | -6 min | 63 |
| MDW→PHX this route Chicago to Phoenix | 9,221 | 76.4% | 1.21% | -3 min | 66 |
Flying to PHX from the Chicago area? Compare MDW, ORD for PHX, with the same test for what counts as a real difference.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Saturday is historically the most reliable day and Thursday the least, a gap of 7.4 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 80.8%
- Feb: 83.2%
- Mar: 79.4%
- Apr: 74.2%
- May: 72.3%
- Jun: 65.8%
- Jul: 66.3%
- Aug: 75.8%
- Sep: 80.7%
- Oct: 78.4%
- Nov: 83.7%
- Dec: 80.9%
June is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 17.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 53.8% from 283 flights
- August 2023: 66.9% from 305 flights
- September 2023: 71.3% from 265 flights
- October 2023: 75.5% from 286 flights
- November 2023: 88.2% from 272 flights
- December 2023: 88.6% from 264 flights
- January 2024: 77.2% from 225 flights
- February 2024: 86.3% from 198 flights
- March 2024: 80.8% from 293 flights
- April 2024: 75.2% from 303 flights
- May 2024: 61.2% from 299 flights
- June 2024: 64.5% from 263 flights
- July 2024: 68.5% from 271 flights
- August 2024: 79.4% from 250 flights
- September 2024: 82.7% from 255 flights
- October 2024: 84.6% from 280 flights
- November 2024: 84.8% from 230 flights
- December 2024: 86.8% from 244 flights
- January 2025: 86.7% from 211 flights
- February 2025: 81.8% from 194 flights
- March 2025: 80.4% from 285 flights
- April 2025: 78.5% from 271 flights
- May 2025: 80.6% from 243 flights
- June 2025: 73.8% from 241 flights
- July 2025: 69.5% from 252 flights
- August 2025: 84.2% from 213 flights
- September 2025: 90.5% from 205 flights
- October 2025: 75.0% from 265 flights
- November 2025: 76.8% from 224 flights
- December 2025: 66.7% from 242 flights
- January 2026: 78.3% from 203 flights
- February 2026: 81.6% from 206 flights
- March 2026: 76.9% from 283 flights
- April 2026: 68.3% from 251 flights
- May 2026: 77.6% from 235 flights
- June 2026: 58.5% from 218 flights
- July 2026: 77.4% from 193 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 75.7% against 80.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.0 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 9,221 MDW → PHX flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed