MIA → ORD Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MIANo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:53 UTC

Miami airport profile →

Destination · ORDNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 08:51 UTC

Chicago airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

56/ 100Fair

Better than 27% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 13,637 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

74.3%

9,938 of 13,379

Cancellation rate

1.31%

179 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-6 min

Average 10.2 min

Severe delays

9.8%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

74 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

13,637

3 carriers

MIA → ORD arrives on time 74.3% of the time; the return trip, ORD → MIA, arrives on time 76.1% of the time.

MIA → ORD spends 36.9 minutes on the ground on a 1,197-mile trip: 21.0 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MIA and 15.9 minutes from touchdown to gate at ORD.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

Why MIA → ORD flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MIA → ORD cancelled 179 of 13,637 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 76. The reason filed most often was extreme weather, 74.9% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 102 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Weather74.9%

Airline15.6%

Air traffic9.5%

Security0.0%

Of 179 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

Extreme weather1 in 102

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

134 cancellations, 74.9% of the total.

The airline1 in 487

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

28 cancellations, 15.6% of the total.

The air traffic system1 in 802

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

17 cancellations, 9.5% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

179 coded cancellations were recorded on MIA → ORD; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

58 min late

against a median of 6 min early

Arrived an hour or more late9.8%

Typical delay when late74 min

Cancelled1.31%

Landed somewhere else0.58%

MIA → ORD has an average that understates its risk: a typical arrival is 6 min early, but the worst tenth are 64 minutes worse than that. If the trip has something unmissable at the end of it, the median is the wrong number to plan against.

Percentiles over 13,637 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at ORD after arriving from MIA.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MIA → ORD arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	40%	Likely to miss
45 min	25%	High risk
60 min	17%	High risk
90 min	9.7%	Some risk
120 min	5.9%	Some risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 1.31% of the time and diverts 0.58% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 13,379 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 58 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 13,637 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MIA → ORD flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 89.0% of the time, against 60.6% for 3–6 PM departures, a gap of 28.4 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MIA).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 11.2 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 3.3 points.

On-time arrival rate for MIA to ORD by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM
7 PM–8 PM
8 PM–9 PM
9 PM–10 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

50–59
60–69
70–79
80–89
90–99

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures before 6 AM and after 10 PM (271 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MIA to ORD. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
6 AM–7 AM	85.8% on time181 flights	94.2% on time177 flights	89.4% on time173 flights	89.9% on time182 flights	89.3% on time181 flights	87.1% on time159 flights	87.4% on time180 flights
7 AM–8 AM	85 flights, too few to score	66 flights, too few to score	55 flights, too few to score	73 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	82 flights, too few to score	84 flights, too few to score
8 AM–9 AM	93.8% on time162 flights	91.4% on time153 flights	91.4% on time154 flights	92.3% on time158 flights	88.5% on time158 flights	85.2% on time162 flights	81.9% on time161 flights
9 AM–10 AM	85.2% on time152 flights	87.7% on time165 flights	85.6% on time167 flights	86.6% on time150 flights	85.2% on time156 flights	83.2% on time156 flights	78.7% on time158 flights
10 AM–11 AM	8 flights, too few to score	15 flights, too few to score	14 flights, too few to score	8 flights, too few to score	8 flights, too few to score	6 flights, too few to score	8 flights, too few to score
11 AM–12 PM	44 flights, too few to score	34 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	39 flights, too few to score	49 flights, too few to score	47 flights, too few to score	44 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	84.5% on time164 flights	80.8% on time159 flights	83.6% on time154 flights	79.8% on time170 flights	81.2% on time171 flights	81.4% on time170 flights	75.2% on time169 flights
1 PM–2 PM	79.4% on time134 flights	86.4% on time129 flights	76.6% on time126 flights	73.9% on time136 flights	77.0% on time141 flights	79.8% on time132 flights	61.2% on time140 flights
2 PM–3 PM	90 flights, too few to score	54 flights, too few to score	61 flights, too few to score	93 flights, too few to score	87 flights, too few to score	81 flights, too few to score	91 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	57.7% on time155 flights	67.7% on time161 flights	66.0% on time159 flights	61.9% on time151 flights	56.6% on time153 flights	72.5% on time156 flights	52.3% on time155 flights
4 PM–5 PM	61.4% on time228 flights	70.5% on time227 flights	62.3% on time229 flights	60.3% on time220 flights	57.2% on time224 flights	62.1% on time225 flights	55.3% on time225 flights
5 PM–6 PM	102 flights, too few to score	89 flights, too few to score	100 flights, too few to score	110 flights, too few to score	115 flights, too few to score	56.3% on time120 flights	109 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	64 flights, too few to score	76 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	63 flights, too few to score	60 flights, too few to score	86 flights, too few to score	70 flights, too few to score
7 PM–8 PM	67.5% on time154 flights	78.7% on time127 flights	66.9% on time124 flights	68.8% on time159 flights	69.1% on time154 flights	65.7% on time134 flights	63.9% on time157 flights
8 PM–9 PM	65 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score	62 flights, too few to score	63 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	63 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score
9 PM–10 PM	75.2% on time149 flights	78.2% on time144 flights	74.6% on time144 flights	76.6% on time146 flights	77.4% on time149 flights	75.8% on time151 flights	72.3% on time145 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM89.0%

9 AM–12 PM82.9%

12–3 PM76.9%

3–6 PM60.6%

6–9 PM65.2%

9 PM–5 AM75.4%

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Why MIA → ORD runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

Late-arriving aircraft36.6%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control29.7%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

The airline26.9%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Weather6.6%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security0.2%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MIA → ORD. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

Late-arriving aircraft is the largest cause on MIA → ORD, at 36.6%: flights here mostly leave late because the plane came in late, and the day shows it: 5–9 AM departures arrived on time 89.0% of the time and 3–6 PM departures 60.6%.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

The harder-hit end is ORD, where the flight lands. Its figure counts departures from ORD, so it says more about how that airport copes than about this route. Bad weather cancels 5.5 times the normal rate at ORD against 3.3 times at MIA. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MIA 4.5% against 1.3%, ORD 6.5% against 1.2%. Flights that did leave MIA in bad weather arrived on time 50.6% of the time, against 74.1% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MIA and ORD in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MIA	ORD
Cancelled in bad weather	4.5%	6.5%
Cancelled in normal hours	1.3%	1.2%
Arrived on time, bad weather	50.6%	55.7%
Arrived on time, normal hours	74.1%	77.1%
Departures in bad weather	15,746	104,455

Of the carriers on this route, United Airlines (2.4% cancelled against 4.4% for the other carriers at MIA) cancelled the fewest departures from MIA in bad weather and American Airlines (5.4% cancelled against 4.2% for the other carriers at MIA) the most.

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MIA

All departures from MIA

Cancellation rates in bad weather at MIA for the airlines that fly MIA to ORD, against the other carriers at MIA in the same months
Airline	Bad-weather departures	Cancelled	Other carriers
United Airlines	1,004	2.4%below the others	4.4%
Spirit Airlines	766	4.8%about level	4.4%
American Airlines	8,534	5.4%above the others	4.2%

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MIA and ORD, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad. The airline rows count each carrier’s departures from MIA on every route.

Weather source and limits. In full: MIA (airlines), ORD, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
American Airlines	9,036	75.1%	1.25%	-7 min	9.4%
United Airlines	3,087	73.4%	1.10%	-3 min	10.1%
Spirit Airlines	1,468	71.1%	2.11%	-6 min	11.4%

American Airlines flew 66.5% of the 13,591 flights listed. Spirit Airlines cancelled 2.11% of its flights here against 1.10% for United Airlines.

American Airlines arrived on time 4.0 percentage points more often than Spirit Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
UA1983 United Airlines	12:30 PM	953	81.9%

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon73.8%

Tue79.8%

Wed76.3%

Thu74.6%

Fri72.9%

Sat75.0%

Sun68.0%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 11.8 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 21.9 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 71.1% against 76.8% in the 12 months before — declining by 5.7 percentage points.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 13,637 MIA → ORD flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MIA airport ORD airport Return direction ORD → MIA

MIA→ORD

Right now

Route reliability

Why MIA → ORD flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MIA → ORD runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

This route’s airlines in bad weather at MIA

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology