Route profile
MSP→DTW
Flight reliability, delays and best times to fly from Minneapolis to Detroit, 528 miles.
Right now
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Aviation weather is not currently a factor.
Route reliability
July 2023 – July 2026
Better than 89% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)
Calculated from 6,663 flights. How this is calculated
MSP → DTW arrives on time 84.4% of the time; the return trip, DTW → MSP, arrives on time 81.9% of the time, a 2.5-point gap between the two directions of the same city pair.
MSP → DTW spends 26.6 minutes on the ground on a 528-mile trip: 16.6 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 10.0 minutes from touchdown to gate at DTW.
Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026
What stands out
Every day of the week performs about the same on this route, steadier than 98% of 4,467 comparable routes.
85.6% on time on the best day (Tuesday) against 82.4% on the worst (Sunday).
Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 4,467 in the comparison.
What sets this route apart
Where MSP to DTW differs most from similar routes by hour, weekday, month and airline, July 2023 – July 2026.
MSP to DTW is at its best against routes of similar length for flights scheduled at 3 PM: 84.0% arrive on time, 9.3 points ahead of the 74.7% those routes manage at that hour. Against all other routes the gap is 11.3 points.
MSP to DTW holds up on Fridays better than routes of similar length do: 84.6% on time to their 77.2%, a 7.4 points lead. Against all other routes the gap is 8.4 points.
May is kinder to MSP to DTW than to routes of similar length: 86.7% on time against 76.3%, 10.4 points better. Against all other routes the gap is 11.5 points.
Spirit Airlines does better on MSP to DTW than on its routes of similar length: 84.8% on time here, 75.1% there, 9.7 points apart. Against all other routes the gap is 9.6 points.
MSP to DTW against comparable routes
July 2023 – July 2026| Measure | This route | Compared with | Them | Gap | Flights behind it |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hour: 3 PM departures | 84.0% | routes of similar length | 74.7% | +9.3 pts | 706 here, 94,589 there |
| Weekday: Friday | 84.6% | routes of similar length | 77.2% | +7.4 pts | 967 here, 239,256 there |
| Month: May | 86.7% | routes of similar length | 76.3% | +10.4 pts | 513 here, 134,645 there |
| Airline: Spirit Airlines | 84.8% | routes of similar length | 75.1% | +9.7 pts | 801 here, 67,813 there |
Each comparison pools the flights of other routes, with this route’s own left out. Similar length means within 15% of this route’s 528 miles, with at least 5 such routes. A bucket is set against the most comparable group that has enough flights: similar length, then the same origin (at least 3 routes), then all other routes. Hours, weekdays and months appear only where both sides have 120 completed flights, and airlines where both have 600. The gap must be at least 2 points and 2 standard errors, and only the largest gap each way is kept per measure. These are differences in the flights counted, not causes.
When it goes wrong
July 2023 – July 2026
27 min late
against a median of 8 min early
Percentiles over 6,663 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.
Will your connection be tight enough?
Layovers at DTW after arriving from MSP.
| Connection time | Chance of missing | Reads as |
|---|---|---|
| 30 min | 29% | High risk |
| 45 min | 15% | Some risk |
| 60 min | 9.3% | Some risk |
| 90 min | 4.9% | Low risk |
| 120 min | 3.1% | Low risk |
This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.45% of the time and diverts 0.09% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.
Chance of missing is the share of 6,627 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.
The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 27 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 6,663 operations.
Any other layover length: connection checker.
Best time to fly
MSP → DTW flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 91.4% of the time, against 70.7% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 20.7 percentage points.
By departure window
By departure hour
- 12 AM to 4 AM: too few flights to score
- 5 AM: 93.0% on time from 144 flights
- 6 AM: 93.2% on time from 1,182 flights
- 7 AM: too few flights to score
- 8 AM: 88.5% on time from 886 flights
- 9 AM: 87.9% on time from 381 flights
- 10 AM to 11 AM: too few flights to score
- 12 PM: 90.5% on time from 1,093 flights
- 1 PM to 2 PM: too few flights to score
- 3 PM: 84.0% on time from 708 flights
- 4 PM: 76.9% on time from 486 flights
- 5 PM: 69.5% on time from 273 flights
- 6 PM: too few flights to score
- 7 PM: 69.8% on time from 825 flights
- 8 PM: 72.4% on time from 296 flights
- 9 PM to 11 PM: too few flights to score
Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.
Why MSP → DTW runs late
July 2023 – July 2026
crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control
the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late
airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control
weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically
screening or terminal security incidents
Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → DTW. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.
Airlines on this route
Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.
| Carrier | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Median delay | Severe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 5,854 | 84.4% | 0.43% | -8 min | 4.9% |
| Spirit Airlines | 808 | 84.8% | 0.62% | -9 min | 5.7% |
Delta Air Lines flew 87.9% of the 6,662 flights listed.
Carriers on this route performed within a couple of percentage points of each other.
Flights on this route
Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.
DL1461 (6:00 AM) arrived on time 92.8% of the time, 27.8 points more often than DL1484 (7:45 PM) at 65.0%.
Weekly and seasonal patterns
By day of week
Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Sunday the least, a gap of 3.2 percentage points.
By month
- Jan: 84.0%
- Feb: 86.1%
- Mar: 82.4%
- Apr: 88.2%
- May: 86.7%
- Jun: 82.2%
- Jul: 76.9%
- Aug: 80.6%
- Sep: 88.4%
- Oct: 91.2%
- Nov: 91.8%
- Dec: 79.1%
July is historically the weakest month and November the strongest, a spread of 14.9 percentage points.
Reliability over time
July 2023 – July 2026
- July 2023: 84.5% from 207 flights
- August 2023: 83.2% from 203 flights
- September 2023: 86.2% from 181 flights
- October 2023: 89.2% from 186 flights
- November 2023: 95.0% from 181 flights
- December 2023: 92.4% from 185 flights
- January 2024: 84.3% from 179 flights
- February 2024: 95.0% from 161 flights
- March 2024: 84.9% from 185 flights
- April 2024: 91.3% from 172 flights
- May 2024: 89.1% from 183 flights
- June 2024: 77.2% from 199 flights
- July 2024: 70.0% from 209 flights
- August 2024: 78.0% from 229 flights
- September 2024: 93.0% from 201 flights
- October 2024: 94.5% from 201 flights
- November 2024: 92.4% from 198 flights
- December 2024: 75.7% from 210 flights
- January 2025: 88.0% from 194 flights
- February 2025: 79.4% from 161 flights
- March 2025: 83.1% from 183 flights
- April 2025: 86.1% from 180 flights
- May 2025: 83.9% from 175 flights
- June 2025: 84.4% from 186 flights
- July 2025: 78.4% from 196 flights
- August 2025: 81.1% from 190 flights
- September 2025: 85.1% from 154 flights
- October 2025: 89.1% from 156 flights
- November 2025: 87.2% from 149 flights
- December 2025: 67.5% from 156 flights
- January 2026: 78.7% from 156 flights
- February 2026: 83.6% from 141 flights
- March 2026: 78.7% from 156 flights
- April 2026: 87.3% from 150 flights
- May 2026: 87.2% from 156 flights
- June 2026: 85.5% from 172 flights
- July 2026: 74.6% from 182 flights
Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.0% against 84.7% in the 12 months before — declining by 2.7 percentage points.
Data and methodology
Calculated by FlyerIntel from 6,663 MSP → DTW flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.
Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem
Related research: How Long a Layover Needs to Be · Two Airlines on One Route · Best Time of Day to Fly From Major US Airports
Analysis last recomputed