MSP → ATL Flight Reliability

Right now

Origin · MSPNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:53 UTC

Minneapolis airport profile →

Destination · ATLNo disruption reported

Aviation weather is not currently a factor.

Updated 07:52 UTC

Atlanta airport profile →

Route reliability

July 2023 – July 2026

Route Reliability Score

78/ 100Strong

Better than 84% of comparable major US routes (4,598 compared)

Calculated from 11,143 flights. How this is calculated

On-time arrivals

82.9%

9,169 of 11,065

Cancellation rate

0.47%

52 cancelled

Median arrival delay

-9 min

Average 2.2 min

Severe delays

5.1%

60+ minutes late

Delay when late

67 min

Average, when 15+ min late

Flights analyzed

11,143

3 carriers

MSP → ATL arrives on time 82.9% of the time; the return trip, ATL → MSP, arrives on time 81.5% of the time.

MSP → ATL spends 27.0 minutes on the ground on a 907-mile trip: 17.2 minutes from pushback to wheels-up at MSP and 9.8 minutes from touchdown to gate at ATL.

Source: US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics · Data covering July 2023 – July 2026

What stands out

The airline matters unusually much on this route, a wider carrier-to-carrier gap than 99% of 2,692 comparable routes.

Delta Air Lines arrived on time 84.8% of the time, against 57.1% for Frontier Airlines, flying the exact same route.

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · Ranked against every other route with the same kind of figure and at least 2,692 in the comparison.

Why MSP → ATL flights are cancelled

July 2023 – July 2026

MSP → ATL cancelled 52 of 11,143 scheduled flights — about 1 in every 214. The reason filed most often was the airline, 63.5% of the cancellations coded on this route — about 1 in every 338 scheduled flights.

Share of cancellations

Airline63.5%

Weather36.5%

Air traffic0.0%

Security0.0%

Of 52 cancelled departures carrying a reason code.

What each reason means

The airline1 in 338

Crew, maintenance, aircraft cleaning, baggage or fueling: what BTS counts as within the carrier’s own control.

33 cancellations, 63.5% of the total.

Extreme weather1 in 586

Conditions the carrier judged severe enough to stop the flight: a blizzard, a hurricane, a line of thunderstorms.

19 cancellations, 36.5% of the total.

The air traffic system—

Airport capacity, air traffic control flow programs, heavy traffic and ordinary bad weather. A system decision, not the airline’s.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Security—

A terminal evacuation, a security breach, screening equipment failure, or screening queues over 29 minutes.

0 cancellations, 0.0% of the total.

Reason codes are the operating airline’s own filing with US DOT, not an independent finding of fault. Ordinary bad weather is filed under air traffic, so weather’s full share is larger than its bar.

52 coded cancellations were recorded on MSP → ATL; the section appears from 50.

When it goes wrong

July 2023 – July 2026

One arrival in ten is worse than

32 min late

against a median of 9 min early

Arrived an hour or more late5.1%

Typical delay when late67 min

Cancelled0.47%

Landed somewhere else0.23%

Percentiles over 11,143 operations; cancelled and diverted flights are counted separately.

Will your connection be tight enough?

Layovers at ATL after arriving from MSP.

Connection buffer and chance of missing by layover length, MSP → ATL arrivals
Connection time	Chance of missing	Reads as
30 min	31%	Likely to miss
45 min	16%	High risk
60 min	11%	Some risk
90 min	5.0%	Some risk
120 min	3.2%	Low risk

This is one leg of a connection. Gate changes and the next flight's own schedule matter too. And a connection can fail before delay is even the question — this route cancels 0.47% of the time and diverts 0.23% of the time, which a late arrival never shows up in.

Chance of missing is the share of 11,065 arrivals on this route that landed later than the connection time less 30 minutes to reach the next gate.

The worst tenth of arrivals on this route land at least 32 minutes late (90th-percentile gate arrival delay), over 11,143 operations.

Any other layover length: connection checker.

Best time to fly

MSP → ATL flights departing 5–9 AM arrived on time 90.1% of the time, against 78.0% for 6–9 PM departures, a gap of 12.1 percentage points.

By day and hour

On-time arrival rate for each weekday and scheduled departure hour, in local time at the departure airport (MSP).

Hour of departure matters more than day of the week: hourly averages sit a typical 6.7 points from the route-wide rate, weekday averages 2.2 points.

On-time arrival rate for MSP to ATL by weekday and scheduled departure hour, local time. Each button reads out one slot.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM
6 AM–7 AM
7 AM–8 AM
8 AM–9 AM
9 AM–10 AM
10 AM–11 AM
11 AM–12 PM
12 PM–1 PM
1 PM–2 PM
2 PM–3 PM
3 PM–4 PM
4 PM–5 PM
5 PM–6 PM
6 PM–7 PM

On-time rate, % · stronger color, fewer on time

72–75
76–79
80–83
84–87
88–91
92–95

Fewer than 120 flights, not scored

Source: FlyerIntel analysis of US DOT BTS data · July 2023 – July 2026 · On time is arrival within 15 minutes of schedule. Cells round to whole percentages; the table shows one decimal.

No slot is named best or worst: too few reach 500 flights. Departures after 7 PM (883 flights) are not drawn: no slot in those hours has enough flights to score.

View as tableHide table

On-time arrival rate (%) with flights beneath, by scheduled departure hour and weekday for MSP to ATL. A dash means fewer than 120 flights, which are not scored.
Hour	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday
5 AM–6 AM	89.7% on time165 flights	94.5% on time165 flights	89.1% on time165 flights	92.7% on time165 flights	91.5% on time165 flights	90.2% on time165 flights	89.0% on time165 flights
6 AM–7 AM	27 flights, too few to score	10 flights, too few to score	7 flights, too few to score	11 flights, too few to score	11 flights, too few to score	13 flights, too few to score	11 flights, too few to score
7 AM–8 AM	89.4% on time162 flights	93.2% on time161 flights	88.8% on time161 flights	88.4% on time164 flights	88.6% on time158 flights	86.6% on time157 flights	90.4% on time158 flights
8 AM–9 AM	94.3% on time159 flights	92.0% on time150 flights	93.3% on time149 flights	91.7% on time156 flights	90.3% on time155 flights	88.5% on time131 flights	90.1% on time154 flights
9 AM–10 AM	52 flights, too few to score	24 flights, too few to score	26 flights, too few to score	45 flights, too few to score	51 flights, too few to score	58 flights, too few to score	50 flights, too few to score
10 AM–11 AM	81.6% on time159 flights	90.2% on time173 flights	89.5% on time173 flights	87.0% on time162 flights	78.9% on time154 flights	86.8% on time145 flights	83.5% on time161 flights
11 AM–12 PM	40 flights, too few to score	27 flights, too few to score	22 flights, too few to score	41 flights, too few to score	38 flights, too few to score	26 flights, too few to score	46 flights, too few to score
12 PM–1 PM	83.5% on time140 flights	80.1% on time136 flights	84.6% on time136 flights	81.8% on time161 flights	77.4% on time134 flights	83.9% on time127 flights	77.6% on time159 flights
1 PM–2 PM	49 flights, too few to score	56 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	51 flights, too few to score	53 flights, too few to score	55 flights, too few to score	48 flights, too few to score
2 PM–3 PM	66 flights, too few to score	47 flights, too few to score	64 flights, too few to score	50 flights, too few to score	65 flights, too few to score	59 flights, too few to score	50 flights, too few to score
3 PM–4 PM	85.2% on time135 flights	83.2% on time137 flights	83.0% on time135 flights	78.5% on time136 flights	77.2% on time138 flights	84.7% on time137 flights	80.3% on time137 flights
4 PM–5 PM	76.4% on time165 flights	88.0% on time142 flights	77.8% on time144 flights	72.3% on time156 flights	76.8% on time156 flights	79.2% on time150 flights	73.2% on time157 flights
5 PM–6 PM	40 flights, too few to score	22 flights, too few to score	29 flights, too few to score	35 flights, too few to score	42 flights, too few to score	16 flights, too few to score	37 flights, too few to score
6 PM–7 PM	81.6% on time175 flights	81.1% on time159 flights	83.5% on time158 flights	76.0% on time167 flights	73.7% on time173 flights	75.3% on time172 flights	76.4% on time169 flights

By departure window

5–9 AM90.1%

9 AM–12 PM84.7%

12–3 PM78.1%

3–6 PM78.7%

6–9 PM78.0%

9 PM–5 AM—

By departure hour

12 AM

3 AM

6 AM

9 AM

12 PM

3 PM

6 PM

9 PM

Departure windows with fewer than 120 flights are not scored.

Why MSP → ATL runs late

July 2023 – July 2026

The airline46.2%

crew, maintenance, boarding and fueling, all within the carrier’s control

Late-arriving aircraft25.1%

the inbound aircraft was late, so this flight started late

Air traffic control25.0%

airspace and airport capacity, including weather-driven flow control

Weather3.8%

weather severe enough to stop this flight specifically

Security<0.1%

screening or terminal security incidents

Share of the delay minutes US DOT attributed to each cause for MSP → ATL. Only delays of 15 minutes or more are attributed.

How this route holds up in bad weather

July 2023 – July 2026

Bad weather raises cancellations by a similar amount at both ends of MSP to ATL: 3.1 times the normal rate at MSP and 3.3 times at ATL. Cancelled in bad weather against normal hours: MSP 2.4% against 0.8%, ATL 3.4% against 1.0%. Flights that did leave MSP in bad weather arrived on time 65.6% of the time, against 83.5% in normal hours.

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Scheduled departures, July 2023 – July 2026

Departures from MSP and ATL in hours of bad weather and in normal hours
Departures from	MSP	ATL
Cancelled in bad weather	2.4%	3.4%
Cancelled in normal hours	0.8%	1.0%
Arrived on time, bad weather	65.6%	66.5%
Arrived on time, normal hours	83.5%	80.2%
Departures in bad weather	42,174	105,854

These are airport figures, not route figures: every scheduled departure from MSP and ATL, to any destination, in hours the weather report called bad.

Weather source and limits. In full: MSP, ATL, What Weather Costs Each Airport, Who Cancels More When the Weather Turns, Airports That Change Places When Weather Turns.

Airlines on this route

Carriers with at least 200 flights, by the airline that operated each one.

Airlines on this route
Carrier	Flights	On time	Cancelled	Median delay	Severe
Delta Air Lines	9,736	84.8%	0.36%	-9 min	4.6%
Spirit Airlines	1,039	74.0%	0.87%	-5 min	7.5%
Frontier Airlines	368	57.1%	2.17%	8 min	13.6%

Delta Air Lines flew 87.4% of the 11,143 flights listed. Frontier Airlines cancelled 2.17% of its flights here against 0.36% for Delta Air Lines.

Delta Air Lines arrived on time 27.7 percentage points more often than Frontier Airlines on this route.

Flights on this route

Flight numbers with at least 600 operations here and still on the schedule.

Flights on this route
Flight	Scheduled	Operations	On time
DL1048 Delta Air Lines	12:45 PM	785	81.7%
DL1062 Delta Air Lines	5:20 AM	785	90.8%
DL1046 Delta Air Lines	10:00 AM	783	85.0%
DL1039 Delta Air Lines	7:00 AM	783	88.3%
DL1052 Delta Air Lines	8:50 AM	780	89.7%
DL1026 Delta Air Lines	6:10 PM	768	78.2%
DL1036 Delta Air Lines	3:15 PM	746	81.8%
DL1028 Delta Air Lines	4:50 PM	736	76.6%

DL1062 (5:20 AM) arrived on time 90.8% of the time, 14.2 points more often than DL1028 (4:50 PM) at 76.6%.

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

Mon83.1%

Tue86.7%

Wed85.5%

Thu81.8%

Fri80.1%

Sat82.7%

Sun80.6%

Tuesday is historically the most reliable day and Friday the least, a gap of 6.6 percentage points.

By month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

July is historically the weakest month and October the strongest, a spread of 16.8 percentage points.

Reliability over time

July 2023 – July 2026

24

25

26

Over the most recent 12 months (2025-08 to 2026-07), on-time arrivals averaged 82.2% against 82.1% in the 12 months before — broadly unchanged.

Data and methodology

Calculated by FlyerIntel from 11,143 MSP → ATL flight records from the US DOT Bureau of Transportation Statistics, covering July 2023 – July 2026. Late means 15 or more minutes past scheduled arrival; cancelled and diverted flights are left out of on-time rates.

Full methodology · Data sources · Report a problem

Analysis last recomputed September 26, 2026

MSP airport ATL airport Return direction ATL → MSP

MSP→ATL

Right now

Route reliability

What stands out

Why MSP → ATL flights are cancelled

Share of cancellations

What each reason means

When it goes wrong

Will your connection be tight enough?

Best time to fly

By day and hour

By departure window

By departure hour

Why MSP → ATL runs late

How this route holds up in bad weather

Bad weather and normal hours at the airports

Airlines on this route

Flights on this route

Weekly and seasonal patterns

By day of week

By month

Reliability over time

Data and methodology